David Farrar: $800k per student!

Two AUT academics write:

Our research used Stats NZ’s Integrated Data Infrastructure to follow more than 250,000 school leavers from the 2015 to 2019 cohorts.

We examined whether the first-year fees-free scheme affected participation, programme choice, retention and completion.

Tertiary participation was already falling before the fees-free scheme began. After accounting for that trend, it does not appear to have increased tertiary participation.

We also found no clear evidence the policy encouraged students to enrol in bachelor’s degrees rather than certificate or diploma-level study, or that it improved retention or completion.

Our findings on equity are especially important. Students from higher-decile schools were already more likely to enter tertiary study and a key question was whether a fees-free scheme narrowed that gap.

It did not. Students from lower-decile schools did worse relative to higher-decile students on participation, bachelor’s enrolment and retention.

The fees-free scheme did not widen the gaps but it failed to narrow them.

So Hipkins’ scheme failed on participation, programme choice, retention and completion!

Even reading our results as generously as possible, it may have affected the enrolment decisions of only about 400 students per cohort – more than $800,000 for each student whose decision may have changed.

The $800,000 per student is the best case scenario.

Almost $3 billion has been wasted on this scheme. It is coming to an end thankfully, but imagine the opportunity cost. Think if $3 billion had been invested in early childhood education instead.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders