David Farrar: Who gets in on Labour’s List?

Labour have released their party list. People want to know who is likely to get in as a List MP. First how many overall seats will they get? On the average of the public polls it is 39. Then it is how many electorates will they win? Well purely on applying the current party vote in the polls to the 2023 results, Labour would win 26 electorates. Note this doesn’t take account of candidate quality, so isn;’t a projection – just an assumption.

So this would leave 13 List spots for Labour candidates who don’t win their electorates or are list only. So on current polling the Labour List MPs would be:

1. Willie Jackson
2. Megan Woods
3. Ayesha Verrall
4. Vanushi Walters
5. Kieran McAnulty
6. Rakesh Naidoo
7. Jan Tinetti
8. Damien O’Connor
9. Shanan Halbert
10. Chris Flatt
11. Kingi Kiriona
12. Camilla Belich
13. Glen Bennett

So which current MPs would miss out on current polling:

• Deborah Russel
• Georgie Dansey
• Dan Rosewarne
• Greg O’Connor (failed to get a list place)

I’m surprised that they have placed Camilla Belich so low. If Labour drop 2% in the polls, she could miss out – or if they win two more electorates than 26.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders