John Raine: Our Culture - Can National Learn from Australia or the UK in Election Year?

The British Labour Party reacted with disbelief to the massive voter shift to the Reform Party in the early May Local Council elections, but the Labour response has been an astonishing doubling down on the existing policy positions (“we need to tell our story better”) that alienated their traditional voter base.

The U.K. government has been disliked to the point of civil unrest for policies such as the acceptance of and economic support for tens of thousands of illegal immigrants each year; changes to farmers’ inheritance tax that militate against local food production; welfare reform and disability benefit cuts; means testing the winter fuel allowance; and failing to address in a timely fashion issues such as the grooming gangs scandal and violent antisemitism.

The U.K. government has also doggedly stuck to its green energy policy (solar and wind power proliferation) in the face of consequential eye-watering electricity prices and de-industrialisation, only now starting to reconsider. The U.K. health and education system remain hostage to diversity politics, and biological women are still not guaranteed safe spaces despite the Courts having defined a woman as an adult human female.

Characterised by an ideologically driven, typically university-educated left-wing elite, the U.K. Labour Party has ended up deaf to the rising anger of their traditional working class and less wealthy middle-class voters who feel economically and socially sidelined.

And it, seems, none deafer than their Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, whose hold on power is now extremely tenuous. He also takes the prize for the lowest approval rating of any prime minister since Ipsos polling began in the 1970s. After the Local Council Elections, Keir Starmer said the people who voted for Reform were “dangerous and bigoted”. He capped it off by saying he wanted to take the UK back into the EU. Starmer’s YouGov/Ipsos approval range late April - early May 2026 was -45% to -56%. Ipsos, the lowest poll, was 18% approval versus 74% disapproval.

In Australia, Anthony Albanese has not dropped quite so far in approval rating but, sitting at a YouGov Australia net -19% in May this year, things aren’t looking great for him. In the wake of the Bondi massacre, the Government was seen as too cowardly in calling out Islamic extremism and antisemitism. Wider issues for Australia mirror those in other Western countries: a rigid and damaging focus on wind and solar renewable energy coming at high economic cost to both citizens and industry; housing problems; too much immigration too fast, worsening housing shortages; gender politics; and critical social justice politics around the Aboriginal population.

Australia has several government policies and constitutional frameworks that provide specific recognition, protections, or targeted programmes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – generally framed as remedial measures addressing historical dispossession, health gaps, and socioeconomic disadvantage. These have broadly followed the pattern in New Zealand, although the issue of Māori sovereignty appears more sensitised in NZ.

The rapid rise of Reform in the U.K. is mirrored by the upsurge in support for the much older One Nation party in Australia which is getting serious attention after its victory in the Farrer by-election, and polling at historic highs. One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson is capturing hearts and minds by pushing simple anti-woke policy that appeals to disenfranchised voters, and is wanting to focus the country back on the welfare of its own people - pro-family, sound education and productive industry.

The common thread in the U.K. and Australia is anger in the electorate over out-of-touch government and ideological policies that voters see causing palpable social and economic damage. Trust in government in both these countries is at very low ebb.

Shift the camera now to New Zealand. Things aren’t great here either, for example:

· High and increasing international debt.

· A struggling economy and stagnant productivity despite efforts of the Coalition to repair the damage left by the last government, none of this helped by the Iran War.

· An over-complex and overstaffed public service bureaucracy which commonly looks as though it is still serving the previous Labour government.

· National energy infrastructure urgently needing stronger long-term investment and market redesign.

· Transport infrastructure investment not advancing fast enough.

· Die-hard educationalists from the postmodern constructivist era not wanting to see the end of dumbed down student-led-learning equal-outcomes education in the face of strong early results from Erica Stanford’s curriculum reforms.

· Concern over immigration levels, and from India in particular.

· Stubborn negative health and education statistics for Māori.

· Increasing societal unease in the face of decolonisation/sovereignty activism from some Māori.

To its credit the Coalition has focused the 2026 budget on not accelerating debt, reducing the size of the public service, simplifying government with fewer ministries and clearer ministerial accountabilities, getting the economy moving faster, and catalysing improvements in other areas above.

However, National was still hovering at 30% in the early May 2026 Taxpayers Union Curia poll, with Act down 2.5% to 6.5% and NZ First down 1.9% to 11.7%. The just announced timely legislation to prevent the voting by non-elected representatives on Local Councils should give Coalition parties a boost in the polls. However, since the 2023 election National has lost trust from part of its traditional voter base – an issue in common with the albeit Labour governments in Australian and the U.K.

Whatever the country, this trust issue varies with different voting sectors. For some it is the economy, for others it is the destabilisation of the culture of the country, and this often connects back to the economy. In the U.K. the economy has been dragged down by the high levels of illegal immigration and the government providing housing and living support to these people. In Australia also, the cultural issue has become more central to the fall in government approval ratings.

For New Zealand fixing the economy is critical, and this enables much faster improvement to health services, education and infrastructure. But a clear factor in common with the Australia and the U.K. is that of a sense of cultural upheaval, and for New Zealand whether equal-rights-for-all-before-the-law democracy can be fully preserved in the future. Professor Dame Elizabeth Rata has given a comprehensive analysis of this situation HERE.

We cannot avoid Treaty of Waitangi politics. Many are deeply concerned about the extent of ongoing decolonisation agendas and imposition of Te Ao Maori in the public service, schools’ education, universities and professional associations, requirements for iwi consultation in the revised RMA, and Māori rights that may appear in Water Done Well which replaces Labour’s Three Waters policy.

Then there has been most recently the quiet insertion of the UNDRIP in the India Free Trade Agreement. This was technically unnecessary for a trade agreement and opens the door to entrenchment of UNDRIP in NZ politics and an acceleration of Māori sovereignty activism, as analysed in detail by Gary Judd HERE.

Given all of this, and a likely finely balanced vote in November this year, what can Prime Minister Christopher Luxon learn from the experience of his prime ministerial colleagues in the U.K. and Australia? Close to the top of the list must be the destabilising consequences of their inattention to the threat felt by voters to the culture of those countries.

National undertook prior to the 2023 election to push back on co-governance but has to date taken a gentle approach in this area where PM Luxon appears reluctant to make waves. Our constitutional future gets little in-depth or balanced discussion in the mainstream media, where most still get their newsfeed, a situation aggravated by many New Zealanders being more politically passive than citizens in Australia and European countries.

I cannot find any country internationally where any determination of citizen rights by ethnicity has led to a stable, tension-free society. A Labour/Green/Te Pati Māori coalition government after November 2026 will likely pursue He Puapua and a move towards co-governance. John McLean has discussed the destabilising implications of such a coalition’s policy positions HERE.

In the run up to the election the present Coalition needs a stronger alternative narrative to rebuild trust from its support base.

The Prime Minister missed a leadership moment with David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill. He could have said that, while he did not agree with the wording of the bill, National would lead a process to ensure that equal-rights-for-all democracy was preserved in New Zealand, consistent with the Treaty of Waitangi. In laying the groundwork for such an exercise, related areas that must be addressed would include these four:

· A containment of the role of the Waitangi Tribunal to recommendations on remaining Treaty settlements, then its subsequent winding up.

· Legislation to limit the manner and extent to which the judiciary can invoke tikanga. If this continues, it must be limited to purely Māori-related matters, especially given its imprecise nature and regional variability.

· The removal of any possibility of co-governance in enabling legislation around the RMA, Water Done Well, or any other area of public administration.

· A requirement that schools, universities, the public service, and professional associations remove requirements for particular cultural instruction, whether related to Te Ao Māori or other cultures represented in the New Zealand population. Such organisations should be politically neutral, where learning about other cultures is greatly encouraged, but at best optional and always free from indoctrination.

New Zealand must also let go of ideological positions driven by external bodies such as the United Nations (including that around climate change - but that’s another story) and not consider the country bound by UNDRIP. Without this, we are still perfectly able, as an independent nation, to recognise the position of Māori as colonisers of the country several hundred years before European arrivals, respect Māori culture and language, and work continually to improve health, education and economic outcomes for Māori.

But we must move forward as a unified people in an uncompromised democracy that is able to celebrate and preserve the cultures of all those that make up our population.

The Coalition, and National in particular, will be receiving at least some pre-election policy advice from advising ministry officials wedded to the “progressive” left. Policy that ensures a positive and stable democratic future for the country will need to be developed in consultation with a wider parish.

Is National starting to listen harder to its traditional support base? Let us hope so.

John Raine is an Emeritus Professor of Engineering and held Deputy and Pro Vice Chancellor roles in three New Zealand Universities. His responsibilities included research, research commercialisation, and internationalisation.