Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 4 July 2026

Did you know…

That Labour was at 25.5% in Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2026?

Did you read about it? See it in the news? Was Chris Hipkins chased through an airport by reporters asking if he would resign? Were Labour MPs asked if they still support him?

Nope. Think back to April when it was Christopher Luxon being stalked at the airport and told his caucus wanted to roll him. When he put his leadership to a vote and came out victorious. National had been at 29.8% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll released the week before. Do you remember the coverage?

Perhaps it because National are in government and Labour are in opposition, you might say. But trust me, I was working in the Leader of the Opposition’s office when Judith Collins was polling in the late 20s and we were hammered by the media.

Election 2026: secrets, tax scraps, and the media’s party

National has selected Rangitīkei District Councillor Coral Raukawa as its candidate in Te Tai Hauāuru electorate. The Party is clearly trying to signal that it intends to campaign seriously in Māori electorates, even where victory is unlikely. It is ironic since some members thought that there was still an old National policy kicking around to abolish the seats.

New Zealand First confirmed New Zealand’s worst kept secret that Michael Laws will stand for them in Waitaki. Laws has been an MP, mayor, regional councillor, broadcaster, campaign director, and professional shitstirrer. Waitaki is still a National seat, and a fairly safe one at that, but Laws received the most votes at the last local government election so he could be in with a shout. Apparently he wants to be Minister for Media and Communications…

Michael Laws. Photo: Sam Sachdeva

Meanwhile, former Te Pāti Māori co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell publicly called for a change of leadership and approach in his old party. Flavell warned that the party had lost its way, citing infighting, personal attacks, poor leadership, and a failure to uphold tikanga. Debbie Ngarewa-Packer responded by acknowledging that last year was not the party’s best season, while insisting the movement remains focused on removing the Government.

The Greens and National had the first proper tax fight of the campaign, after National ran an attack ad claiming the Greens’ 45% tax rate would hit people earning $160,000. The Greens accused National of misrepresenting marginal tax rates, because the 45% rate would apply only to income above that threshold, not to the entire income. National stood by the ad, arguing the point was that the Greens’ definition of “the rich” includes a lot of middle class people.

Labour promised to repeal the coalition's climate litigation law, which was introduced to stop anyone from just taking legal action against companies over climate damage allegedly caused by their greenhouse gas emissions. The coalition is arguing that climate policy should be set by Parliament, not created through tort law case by case in the courts. Labour is arguing the Government is shielding companies from legal accountability.

TOP’s Qiulae Wong is still saying the party would be happy to work with either National or Labour. How they propose to take a land tax and a policy that raises the age of criminal liability to 25 into a coalition with National I don’t know. For a party hovering close to the threshold, the ambiguity may be useful in attracting disaffected voters from both sides, but people also like to know what the overall outcome of their vote will be. They won’t want to vote not knowing if it is for a Labour or National led government.

Free speech principles matter most when it is speech we hate

Brian Tamaki does not deserve sympathy, in my view. But we all have an interest in ensuring everyone’s rights are upheld. His comments about purging New Zealand of Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims, and burning mosques and temples “tit for tat”, were vile, reckless, and rightly condemned. It is deliberately divisive rhetoric that inflames tensions and makes it more difficult to have challenging conversations about immigration.

Police have temporarily suspended Tamaki’s firearms licence and seized his guns while they assess whether he remains “fit and proper” to hold them. That may be lawful under the firearms regime, but it certainly appears that this is a measure taken to punish Tamaki because he could not be punished for the comments directly as they did not qualify for incitement. If Tamaki’s comments crossed the legal threshold into incitement or threats, he should be charged under the relevant law. If they did not, police should not use firearms powers as a substitute punishment for offensive speech.

Labour’s week of mixed messages

Labour spent much of the week tying itself in knots over housing policy, exposing a problem that has dogged the party throughout the campaign so far… it is far clearer about what it opposes than what it would actually do.

In 2018, Labour increased the Accommodation Supplement (a weekly payment to help people with their rent, board, or mortgage) as part of its Families Package and proudly pointed to research from Motu showing there was no evidence the increase had been passed through into higher rents and estimated that around 90% of the additional assistance remained with recipients. Then-Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni welcomed the findings as evidence the policy was helping low-income renters rather than inflating rents.

Fast forward to 2026 and Labour is making the opposite argument. After the coalition announced increases of between $10 and $30 per week to the Accommodation Supplement, Labour criticised the policy as little more than a subsidy for landlords. Christopher Bishop was quick to remind Labour of the research they previously cited.

Problems also arose when Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty confirmed that Labour would reverse the coalition’s planned increase in the Income Related Rent Subsidy contribution paid by state house tenants. Yet when Chris Hipkins was asked directly whether Labour would do exactly that, he repeatedly declined to confirm it, insisting Labour would announce its housing policy “in due course”. Less than 24 hours later, after saying he had “reflected overnight”, Hipkins confirmed that yes, Labour would reverse the policy after all. Are McAnulty and Hipkins not talking to each other?

Then Hipkins announced Labour would scrap the emergency housing targets and end what he called the “criminalisation of homelessness” through the coalition’s move on orders legislation. At the same time, he acknowledged many of the Government’s objectives around antisocial and violent behaviour were legitimate and said Labour supported aspects of what ministers were trying to achieve. The result was another policy announcement that was clearer about what Labour disliked than what it would replace it with.

India, immigration, and coalition tension

The coalition’s India dramas carried on this week, just as Christopher Luxon confirmed India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make his first official visit to New Zealand next week. Luxon is selling the visit as historic and economically significant, pointing to the India FTA as a major step towards more exports, jobs, and growth.

The problem is that his Foreign Minister is still not on board with the deal. Winston Peters argues the FTA is flawed, too loose on immigration, contradictory to NZ First’s coalition agreement, and now possibly being quietly tightened in a way that India may not fully understand. It is an interesting trajectory for New Zealand First as Peters first warned the deal could open the door to too much immigration, but now criticises National for allegedly imposing special restrictions on Indian migrants. Never a dull moment.

Erica Stanford has said Peters was taking internal discussions public before final decisions had been made and risking New Zealand’s relationship with India. Nicola Willis said Peters’ position was hard to follow. Luxon, meanwhile, is trying to “compartmentalise” the dispute and keep the focus on trade.

It is clear the coalition has decided that all is fair in love, war, and election campaigning. And to be honest they seem to all be pretty comfortable in their various positions.

Never underestimate the ability of Councils to create drama

Local government delivers the petty drama again. In Auckland, councillors gave final sign-off to Wayne Brown’s budget, including an average rates rise of 7.9% which Brown has told Aucklanders to stop whinging about. But Aucklanders were not the only people to cop a serve with Auckland Councillor Christine Fletcher alleging “a colleague” called her a “f***ing fat b****” during a debate. That colleague was the mayor.

Mayor Brown’s response was to accuse Fletcher of creating “drama” by posting about it on social media. This from the guy who seems to think he is a podcaster now. Perhaps he could focus less on interviewing MPs and more on running the country’s largest city.

Meanwhile in Gore, councillor Donna Bruce described a staff presentation as “gay” and a code of conduct investigator found the breach was real but neither significant nor serious, and her fellow councillors voted to move on.

Hastings Councillors apologise to constituent they bullied

Getting its own section, Hastings Council has had a code of conduct complaint drama of its own. The dispute began after local GP Dr Corinna Proehl criticised Mayor Wendy Schollum’s social media response to the Bondi terrorist attack, saying in an Instagram comment: “How can a community be assured of your support if you don’t even mention their name?…. Never again is now”.

Two councillors, Heather Te Au-Skipworth (current Green candidate) and Nick Ratcliffe (former Green candidate), jumped in with the exchange becoming increasingly personal. Te Au-Skipworth brought up Dr Proehl’s son, who was a mayoral candidate who had opposed Māori wards, while Ratcliffe accused her of not attending pro-Palestine rallies he had organised. They called Dr Proehl deeply racist, uneducated, and told her to recluse herself from discussions.

Dr Proehl lodged a code of conduct complaint, arguing that the councillors had used their public positions to bully and publicly shame a constituent. Following an independent assessment, both councillors have now apologised directly to her, acknowledging they had not met the standards expected. However, the council determined the matter did not warrant a full formal investigation, and the apologies remained private. Dr Proehl argues that if elected representatives publicly breach expected standards, the resolution should also be public.

The next Treaty flashpoint: Waikato Plan Change 1

An issue urban New Zealanders (or anyone outside of Waikato) might have missed is Waikato Regional Council’s Plan Change 1 (PC1). It is a major freshwater plan for the Waikato and Waipā River catchments.

But, naturally, the controversy surrounding it is not about water quality. The fight is mostly over cost, timing, practicality, and significant iwi interests. It is meant to give practical effect to a legal framework that says the health, wellbeing, and spirit of the Waikato River comes above all else. Also known as Te Ture Whaimana o Te Awa o Waikato.

Federated Farmers says PC1 would affect more than 4500 farms, with many needing certified farm plans and some needing resource consent simply to keep doing what they are already doing. More than 400 farmers in the Whangamarino Wetland catchment could face restricted discretionary consents for existing farming activity, meaning no certainty they can continue operating at all.

Ministers Todd McClay and Shane Jones have both raised concerns. McClay says it makes no sense to sentence Waikato farmers to old-system rules while a new planning system is being built. Jones has gone harder, calling the burden potentially “unbearable” and warning about the impact on food production.

The tension is that farmers argue PC1 is costly, outdated, and badly timed because the RMA is being replaced and Iwi argue it is already long overdue, grounded in Treaty settlements, and necessary to restore the river. This means that any Government move to pause or soften PC1 will turn into full blown Treaty saga.

🇺🇸 The Antifa story that quietly reached a satisfying conclusion

The North Texas Antifa cell responsible for the July 2025 armed attack on the Prairieland ICE Detention Center has now seen all sixteen federal defendants sentenced, receiving prison terms ranging from 22 months to 100 years. Collectively, the sentences exceed 650 years.

Prosecutors successfully argued that this was not a spontaneous protest that got out of hand but a meticulously planned terrorist attack. Trial evidence showed members stockpiled more than fifty firearms, trained together, coordinated through encrypted Signal chats, assembled in black bloc clothing, used fireworks to lure officers from the facility, and then opened fire, critically wounding a police lieutenant. They still face additional state terrorism-related prosecutions.

The case is politically significant because it represents a clear judicial repudiation of the long-running portrayal of violent Antifa activity as little more than enthusiastic activism. For years, many insisted Antifa was merely an idea rather than an organisation, dismissed concerns about organised political violence as right-wing hysteria, and criticised journalists such as Andy Ngo for documenting extremist networks.

The politics of place names returns

As part of its Te Kete Rukuruku programme, Auckland Council has decided to “restore or adopt” Māori names for five regional parks. Long Bay will now be known as Te Oneroa o Kahu, Shakespear becomes Te Hāruhi, Wenderholm becomes Maungatauhoro, Ambury becomes Te Ara i Tautahi, and Ōmana regains its full traditional name, Ō Manawatere. Council described the move as restoring cultural narratives, safeguarding mātauranga Māori, and helping Aucklanders build stronger connections with the landscape.

Like clockwork, the announcement reignited the country’s never-ending naming debate. Supporters argue these names recognise history that predates European settlement and say anyone who disagrees is a raging racist. Critics wonder whether the average Aucklander will need an introductory course in historical linguistics to get anywhere.

The Five Year Gardening Leave Programme

The Ministry of Justice has found itself starring in a story that would have been rejected by the writers of Yes, Minister for being too implausible. Former Lotto presenter Russell Harrison had been in a job at the Ministry for just a few months when he was arrested in 2021 as part of the FBI’s ANOM sting operation after delivering hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of gold bullion to a Comancheros figure in Turkey. He then spent the next five years “suspended” from his Ministry of Justice job on full taxpayer-funded pay before he finally pleaded guilty to his charges and MOJ could dismiss him.

The Taxpayers’ Union calculated that “based on the mid-point of the salary band Harrison was paid $485,038 over the five years he sat at home.”

🇬🇧 Can the Defender of the Faith defend every faith?

King Charles has managed to annoy the people most inclined to support the monarchy. The latest Sovereign Grant report describes him not simply as “Defender of the Faith”, but as Supreme Governor of the Church of England who “protects the space for Faith within the multi-faith nation”. Technically, the constitutional title has not changed, but the emphasis has.

Charles has long wanted to be seen as a defender of faith more broadly, reflecting modern Britain’s religious diversity. His defenders argue it is sensible for the monarch to remain head of the Church of England while also protecting the freedom of Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and others to worship peacefully.

But critics see something much much more serious. Former royal chaplain Gavin Ashenden argues the King has downgraded the Christian faith he swore to defend at his coronation and effectively smuggled a theological shift into a financial report. Others argue the monarchy cannot casually redefine one of its historic roles without Parliament or the public, especially when the coronation oath explicitly commits the sovereign to uphold the Protestant faith.

Charles wants the Crown to reflect multicultural Britain. Traditionalists want it to preserve the Christian inheritance that gives the institution its meaning in the first place. The danger for Charles is that, in trying to make the monarchy acceptable to everyone, he risks making it meaningful to no one.

Meanwhile, the Government kept governing

It was a busy week in government, with ministers ticking off a long list of policy announcements across health, education, infrastructure, and regulation.

Parliament passed amendments to the Pae Ora (Healthy Futures) Act, shifting the legislation’s focus toward measurable patient outcomes and reinstating health targets. The Government also confirmed construction will begin shortly on a new $5 million primary maternity unit in Clyde, due to open in 2027, while the new Whānau Ngā Uri primary birthing unit officially opened in central Auckland, providing 24 hour midwife-led maternity care and expanding postnatal services. Construction has also begun on Hawke’s Bay’s new $44.8 million Cancer Centre.

In Education, Erica Stanford confirmed the refreshed Years 0-10 national curriculum will be released by September after almost 4,000 public submissions, before implementation begins in 2027. The Government also announced a major expansion of the New Zealand-developed ENRICH oral language programme, increasing it from 65 to 525 early childhood centres. The programme aims to improve language development among preschoolers amid growing concern that excessive screen time is contributing to language delays before children even begin school.

Chris Penk’s Building Amendment Bill passed its first reading, proposing a shift to proportionate liability in construction, mandatory home warranties, and professional indemnity insurance, alongside measures intended to speed up building consents and encourage more affordable and energy-efficient housing.

Transport rules also received a refresh. Children aged 12 and under will be allowed to ride bikes on footpaths accompanied by an adult, e-scooters will be permitted in cycle lanes, drivers will be required to leave at least 1.5 metres when overtaking cyclists, and motorists will have to give way to buses pulling out from stops in lower-speed urban areas. Plans to give councils greater powers to fine vehicles parked on berms were shelved after public consultation.

The latest Crown accounts showed revenue running $1.7 billion ahead of Budget forecasts while spending came in around $900 million below expectations. Corporate tax receipts were particularly strong, suggesting improving business profitability, with the operating deficit tracking roughly $3 billion lower than forecast.

And Matt Doocey unveiled a new online registration service for parents who experience stillbirth. Rather than requiring grieving families to navigate systems designed for registering live births, the new website provides a dedicated pathway alongside tailored information and support, and additional Budget funding for perinatal mental health services.

Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke memes win the week

The funniest thing in New Zealand politics this week was the internet collectively deciding that MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke had become the Forrest Gump of New Zealand public life. Social media was full of absurd AI-generated images placing her at every pivotal moment in history. Apparently she fished up New Zealand instead of Māui, attended her own birth as the midwife, isolated radium alongside Marie Curie, and somehow found time between all that to join Seal Team Six.

This happened after in the space of a week Maipi-Clarke twice found herself having to walk back inflated claims about her work. First, the now-deleted social media post claiming that 65% of her work involved visiting rangatahi in youth justice facilities, prisons, and Oranga Tamariki. Ministers responded that she had never visited a youth justice facility and had visited prison only once, after which her office described the wording as an unfortunate mistake and deleted the post.

Then Maipi-Clarke posted that she had been “working on” extending free breast screening from age 69 to 74 with the Minister for Women. After questions were raised, the wording was softened to say she was giving the minister her support. Minister Nicola Grigg said Maipi-Clarke had never discussed the policy with her.

Politicians embellishing their accomplishments is hardly a new phenomenon and the reaction was a burst of funny, mostly good-natured creativity that mocked the hyperbole.

In short - other stuff that happened

• Les Mills, 4x Olympian, Commonwealth Games gold medallist, former Auckland mayor, and founder of the Les Mills fitness empire, has died aged 91.

• 🇹🇭 🇦🇺 Australian man Simon Peter Carman (45) has been charged in Thailand with the murder of Tunchanok Donhomla (17) after police say he hid her body in his apartment for 18 hours before putting her in a suitcase and dumping her. Carman was arrested attempting to board a flight to Perth and claims self-defence, but authorities say the victim suffered injuries consistent with a violent assault.

• A woman in her 30s has been charged with manslaughter over the death of her 3 year old son in Devonport on New Year's Day, with court documents alleging she failed in her legal duty as a parent to protect him from the injury that caused his death.

• Andrew Bayly has stepped down as chair of Parliament's Justice Select Committee, saying he wanted to give "young people" an opportunity to take on the role before the end of the parliamentary term. First-term National MP Tom Rutherford has taken over the position and Bayly moves to the Petitions Select Committee after confirming he will retire from Parliament at this year's election.

• Glen Elwyn Connor (34) was sentenced to 13.5 years imprisonment in Christchurch District Court for crimes against 3 boys aged 11-15 including sexual violation, indecent acts, making and distributing objectionable publications, grooming, and conspiracy to blackmail.

• 🇩🇪 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed requiring employees to present a doctor’s certificate if they take even just 1 sick day. The proposal is part of a broader package of reforms aimed at lifting productivity, reducing red tape, gradually increasing the retirement age, and introducing income tax changes.

• Kāinga Ora chair Simon Moutter received a $54,000 pay increase, lifting his annual fee from $98,000 to $152,000 due to updated Crown board remuneration.

• 🇺🇸 Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and the state’s Clemency Review Commission granted a pardon to Tou Lue Vang, a Laotian national convicted in 2006 of 1st degree criminal sexual conduct involving a 10 year old girl.

• Lyra Yan Zhang has resigned as ACT's candidate for the Kenepuru electorate after it emerged she had not disclosed her previous membership of the China Zhi Gong Party, a political organisation linked to the Chinese Communist Party's United Front system.

• From 1 July, large electricity retailers are required to offer households and small businesses time-of-use pricing plans, allowing customers to access cheaper or even free electricity during off-peak periods instead of paying a flat rate all day.

• New Zealand First and ACT publicly clashed over their coalition's Health and Safety at Work Amendment Bill, with Winston Peters claiming victory after forcing a delay to the law's commencement until after the election while promising to revisit it in the next term. ACT leader David Seymour said the delay made little practical difference and warned he would not budge on the reforms next term.

• Alexander Ian McLean (25) was sentenced to 20 months’ jail in Dunedin District Court after pleading guilty to theft of a motor vehicle, attempted arson, and making an intimate visual recording. In August 2024, he drove while two male passengers sexually assaulted an 18 year old female in the back seat and he filmed part of the incident.

• 🇺🇸 New York City's newly adopted US$126 billion budget includes about US$6.45 million for transgender equity programmes and US$40,000 specifically for Drag Queen Story Hour events in schools and libraries. New York City Councillor Vickie Paladino noted that the allocation for Drag Queen Story Hour exceeds the city's budget for the Department of Veterans' Services

• 🇮🇷 Iran held major funeral processions for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wh was assassinated earlier in 2026 during US-Israel strikes.

• 🇬🇧 Gary Glitter, real name Paul Gadd, has been charged with 4 further historic sexual offences allegedly involving one girl under 13 between 1978 and 1981 in London. He is already serving a 16 year sentence from his 2015 convictions and is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on August 5.

Stuff you might find interesting this week

🇬🇧 A couple of pieces from The Telegraph are worth reading this week, because Britain appears to be noticing disadvantaged white British children are not magically advantaged because they are white.

The paper reported that white British students are now a minority in almost one in five universities, and are underrepresented at more than half of UK universities. At the same time, several institutions still run scholarships and bursaries for ethnic minority students that exclude white applicants, even when white working-class students are among the least represented groups in higher education.

It also reported that white British pupils are now a minority in grammar (posh) schools, falling from 66.8% of grammar school students in 2016 to 46% this year. This follows an inquiry finding that the English education system is “not set up to serve white working-class children and families”.

Britain has spent years treating disadvantage as if it can be neatly read off a diversity spreadsheet. These articles are useful because they expose how crude that approach is.

THE TELEGRAPH: White British students are a minority in grammar schools

THE TELEGRAPH: White students in the minority at 27 universities

🇺🇸 This video from The Free Press is also worth a watch!

Click to view

Ani O'Brien comes from a digital marketing background, she has been heavily involved in women's rights advocacy and is a founding council member of the Free Speech Union. This article was originally published on Ani's Substack Site and is published here with kind permission.