David Farrar: The TSB sale

A reader writes in:

Toi Foundation’s proposal to sell TSB Bank to Heartland Group for $620 million has generated fierce community opposition in Taranaki — public meetings, widespread ‘don’t sell the family silver’ sentiment, and an informal survey finding 90% of those with a firm view opposed.

In looking closely into the background, however, I’ve found aspects that go well beyond the sale itself. Some numbers that I think will interest you:

• 25% of all Toi Foundation grants in FY2025 ($6.6 million of $26.4 million) went to organisations governed by sitting trustees — including the single largest grant of $1.5 million to Te Kotahitanga o Te Atiawa Trust, whose chair and former CEO are both Foundation trustees.

• Māori kaupapa grants grew from 14.3% of total grants in FY2020 to 41.0% in FY2025, following a wave of ministerial appointments between 2018 and 2021 — eight of the ten current trustees were appointed by Grant Robertson.

• The sale price ($620 million) represents a 24% discount to TSB’s book value of approximately $815 million. $264 million of the purchase price is being provided by Toi Foundation as a vendor loan to the buyer.

• The 90% opposition figure comes from a survey by local journalist Jim Tucker: 209 of 232 people who expressed a firm view opposed the merger.

The paper includes an interactive dataset covering all 1,178 grants made by Toi Foundation in FY2025, searchable by category, alongside a full trustee conflict of interest analysis.

I am not a professional researcher or academic, but a well-informed and concerned member of the public who has spent considerable time examining the primary sources — annual reports, NZX announcements, grant listings, and public records — and checking figures carefully. I have verified every substantive claim against source documents as thoroughly as I am able.

I have posted the research online at https://toifoundationtsbsale.vercel.app/. My interest is in getting accurate information into the public domain.

There may be angles I have missed or inaccuracies I have not caught — I welcome further scrutiny. What I am confident of is that the material lifts the lid on a governance situation that is genuinely concerning, and probably not unique to Taranaki. The consultation window is short. I am writing to you as someone whose judgment I trust. Over to you to assess whether my conclusions warrant wider attention — and to do so before that window closes.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders