It is of course one poll and should be read as such.
The big parties are getting smaller, and the smaller parties are getting bigger.
This trend will reverse course a bit on polling day because not everyone who's polled bothers to vote and not everyone who votes is polled.
But the fact the Greens have half the support of Labour and would wield significant power in a government is no good thing for the centre vote Labour has been pushing for.
Every time a poll has Labour slumping and its coalition partners rising, the chances of Chloe Swarbrick getting Finance and tax hikes becoming a real thing also go up.
This is not good for Hipkins because those scenarios scare away the centre voters he and the Nats are desperately trying to attract.
You are the company you keep and if the company you keep says Comrade a lot it can be off-putting to people who don't.
The opposite logic but same problem applies to the right.
Right voters don't so much want a right-wing government as they loathe the idea of another left-wing one.
They worry about borrowing, ill-disciplined spending and an interest bill now the fourth biggest line-item on the government's books.
If an engineered overhang could stop that from happening, they might ignore John Key and split their votes.
Sure, you'd lose a few star Ministers, but better an ACT or NZ First Minister around a cabinet table the Coalition still runs than no seats around a table they don't.
This is one poll and should be taken with a grain of salt. But at this stage of the cycle, polls can start to dictate voter behaviour.
Especially if you're thinking about voting strategically.
Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.
6 comments:
I’m trying to remember why National asked me to vote for Seymour as my local MP instead of the National candidate. Did I act strategically then? It all seems like a dream. Bring back John Key and Helen Clark and Simon Bridges. Those were the days.
The Greens have been on fire lately. Unfortunately Labour has come across very lacklustre at this point. People are feeling the urgency of how badly a government change is needed, and Labour just aren't matching that fire in the belly. The Greens are harnessing it and running away with it. Between Chloe Swarbrick, Steve Abel, Tamatha Paul, Lan Pham, Lawrence Xu-Nan and Marama Davidson they know their stuff incredibly well, are passionate, articulate and fair-minded. They show members of the other parties up at every turn.
If John Key thinks it's a good idea it probably isn't.
Of course you should vote strategically and retain the current Coalition Government.
Just plain Dumb not to.
It's reached this strategic voting level because National are so far left of their traditional base and Luxon does not connect, that something has to be done.
Which is extremely concerning for a political party of Nationals vintage that the disconnect between its voter base and the party's direction is so large. And that they as a party are so out of touch. Its excruciating to watch.
I fully expect Nationals vote to worsen, landing around the mid 20's. Luxon and Willis are not going to move the dial positively, quite the opposite and as Chris Hipkins said, Luxon is missing in action, proving the old saying that even a broken clock (Hipkins), is right twice a day. Luxon was always going to avoid the media like the plague.
I'm guessing National are starting to wake up to the fact their list is going to be deleted, and the embarassment that brings. Hence Key's forlorn wish that things were like back in the day.
On current polling, every party vote for National is a wasted vote. That’s not something to be debated, it’s a fact.
The only centre right logic is to party vote ACT or NZF, take your pick.
But also its most important that you don’t split your electorate vote by voting ACT or NZF instead of National or some of the Labour candidates in marginal electorates will sneak through the middle.
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