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Last week brought what Chris Hipkins probably thought was his worst nightmare, with members of the Greens and Te Pāti Māori posing with patched Mongrel Mob members in an actual gang pad. This week ends with one of Labour’s own candidates, Kerrin Leoni, resigning as its Tāmaki Makaurau candidate after photos and video emerged of her campaigning at a different Mongrel Mob event. Having initially accepted her account and expressed full confidence in her, Hipkins was left explaining that he had not been told the full extent of what happened. Perhaps it was the stress, exhaustion, or simply contemplating the headlines, but the Labour leader became visibly emotional as he fronted media at the Hawke’s Bay A&P show.
Te Pāti Māori has responded by accusing the political right of racism and exploiting the controversy to divide Māori. The irony is that it was Te Pāti Māori MP Oriini Kaipara who dobbed Leoni in during the Whakaata Māori electorate debate. Labour initially denied her accusations, only for the pictures and footage to arrive in short order. Kaipara now has a considerably easier run home, although it is too late to remove Leoni from the ballot.
The footage showed the Labour candidate decked out in party uniform speaking to patched Mongrel Mob members about changing the government. The photograph was arguably even worse, with Leoni standing in the middle of a large group holding a sign featuring herself and Hipkins as those around her made Mongrel Mob signs with their hands and arms. Including the children.
Leoni maintains it was a family event and that she cannot change who her whānau are and would not turn her back on them. Nobody should have to apologise for the family they were born into. But she had a choice about whether to bring her campaign into a gang gathering. You can love a relative without lending the organisation he belongs to your political endorsement.
Hipkins was right to say campaigning alongside gangs was unacceptable and to accept her resignation. But it certainly allowed the Coalition parties to dine out on Labour’s predicament. David Seymour was not shy about rubbing salt in the wound, suggesting there was a possibility Labour was being funded by “P money”, before adding that he did not mean the artist from the 1990s.
Unfortunately for Hipkins, his problems with gangs extend beyond discovering where his candidates have been spending their weekends. He now says the previous Labour Government should never have funded gang-run services and that he was not involved in Cabinet discussions about the matter. Yet in September 2023, when he was Prime Minister, he publicly explained that Cabinet had considered restricting government contracts with gangs or gang associates and decided against it.
“We did look at it,” he said then. “And ultimately what we found was that it was going to do more harm than good.” He defended programmes he said were having a positive impact and argued that an arbitrary ban could also affect services supporting women and children. Asked about those comments this week, Hipkins said he could not recall them, noting that Cabinet made hundreds of decisions and he did not have an encyclopaedic memory.
Mongrel Mob life member Harry Tam has noticed the change of heart in Chris Hipkins' and is absolutely filthy about it. In an interview, he accused Hipkins of throwing Jacinda Ardern “under the bloody bus” and changing his position for political expediency. Tam said Hipkins could not be trusted and complained that the backlash against the gang-pad visits “reeks of fascism”.
Election 2026: Polls, polls, polls
National finally has a polling result worth smiling about. The latest 1News Verian poll puts it on 32%, up 4 points in a week (send Harry Tam a bunch of flowers), while Labour has slipped to 27%. ACT is on 11%, New Zealand First 8%, the Greens 16%, Opportunity 7%, and Te Pāti Māori 0.7%. That is a welcome improvement for the blue team, but the published seat projection still leaves the existing Coalition on 60 seats, one short of a majority.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll paints a different picture of the major parties, with Labour narrowly ahead on 28.7% and National on 27.6%. It has NZ First considerably higher at 11.8%, ACT on 9%, the Greens on 14.3%, Opportunity on 5.4%, and Te Pāti Māori on 2%. Its seat calculation gives the existing Coalition 59 seats and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 54. Opportunity’s projected 7 MPs would therefore give either side a majority. Unfortunately for Christopher “I couldn’t be any clearer” Luxon, Opportunity keeps appearing as the kingmaker in the parliamentary arithmetic.
Opportunity’s position is, however, less secure than some of its enthusiastic media coverage suggests. It is comfortably over the threshold at 7% in Verian, but only just over at 5.4% in Freshwater. Its October results have ranged from 4.8% to 8%. If they get into Parliament it would completely change the distribution of seats,but it is far from certain.
The Auckland-only figures from the Post/Freshwater survey are much more encouraging for National. Among likely Auckland voters, National is on 37.7% against Labour’s 26.4%, followed by the Greens on 13.4%, ACT on 8.8%, and NZ First on 7.3%. Yet, oddly, Hipkins leads Luxon as preferred prime minister in that same Auckland survey, 45.9% to 41.1%.
In the electorates, the Whakaata Māori-Curia poll had Tāmaki Makaurau looking competitive before Kerrin Leoni’s campaign imploded. Oriini Kaipara was on 33%, Leoni 31%, and Green candidate Florence Te Ohaere 21%. The fieldwork took place between 5 and 15 October, so those figures predate Leoni’s resignation. Kaipara had a serious contest on her hands but calling out her rival in a live debate took care of that.
Labour candidate, and former minister, Michael Wood also has reason to feel cheerful. A Community Engagement poll commissioned by his own campaign puts him on 47% in Mt Roskill against National’s Carlos Cheung on 29.9%. Wood is standing electorate-only, so he needs the seat to return to Parliament. In Mt Albert, an early-October Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll had Helen White only 5 points ahead of Melissa Lee. Given White held the seat by just 18 votes last time, this could go down to the wire.
Finally, Catherine Wedd has a clear lead in Tukituki. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll puts her on 35%, Labour’s Dan Scott on 20%, and NZ First’s Taine Randell on 15%, with 10% undecided. Only 12% of respondents could name Scott, compared with 54% for Wedd, and 44% for Randell.
Election 2026: Promises, promises
The policies keep dropping! I will keep the details to a minimum to try fit as many in as possible. ACT wants to make it easier for teenagers to learn a trade while still at school so they propose allowing schools to keep their funding when students spend part of the week learning with an employer or training provider, in addition to receiving extra money to help pay for practical courses. ACT reckons it can do this by bringing existing funding programmes together rather than spending more.
The idea is to make it easier and more appealing for young people to get into trades rather than funnelling everyone off to university. Students could also earn an Industry Award showing employers they have learned skills relevant to a particular trade and they could earn University Entrance at the same time, so choosing practical subjects would not close off university later.
National is promising maths catch-up support for another 40,000 students in Years 7–10 over 3 years. Much of the wider children’s package consists of pulling together things already announced or underway, with their tried and true emphasis on teaching children the basics. The proposed and problematic under 16 social media ban is in their too and Labour is keen on it as well, while New Zealand First has acknowledged the problem, but slammed the solution. Act too has opposed it.
For older New Zealanders, National is promising more affordable housing options, easier rules for building granny flats and tiny homes, and a free helpline to help people find government services. It also wants stronger protections against financial abuse.
New Zealand First wants manufacturers and certain export businesses to be able to deduct half the cost of new machinery and equipment from their taxable income in the year they buy it. That would reduce their tax bill upfront, making it easier to afford investments that help them produce more and hire more staff. The party’s defence plans are much more bold with more personnel, changes to military leadership, equipment purchases, and defence spending rising to 3% of the economy by 2032. Of note is their plan to adjust the attitude and culture of the Defence Force to one reminiscent of the changes made by Pete Hegseth in the US. They want a “rigorous combat/warrior focus” and a policy of appointments based “strictly on merit” with the exception of carving out “female-specific roles where operationally advantageous”.
The Greens released their fiscal policy with dramatic pronouncements from Chloe Swarbrick with strong catch-me-outside-how-‘bout-dat-vibes as she challenged Nicola Willis to “say it to my face”. They are promising another $32 billion for health over 4 years, paid for through higher taxes and more borrowing. Their plan accordingly allows for about $1 billion a year in extra interest payments by 2030/31. Our interest bill is already nearing $10 billion.
Meanwhile, Opportunity seems to want to anger young people by taking away one of the few ways they can getting on the housing ladder by removing the ability to withdraw future savings under KiwiSaver for a first-home deposit. Existing savings would remain available under the current rules, and the party suggests people could use their future balance as security for a mortgage instead. Economist Shamubeel Eaqub called the policy stupid and I tend to agree.
The Kahui law: National wants the adults talking
National wants to make it a crime to withhold information from police in certain cases where a child has been killed. Its proposed exception to the right to silence would apply to adults established to have been present at the location at the time of, or leading up to, the killing, with a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. Paul Goldsmith says the aim is to break the wall of silence that has frustrated investigations into some of our most appalling child deaths.
The appeal is totally understandable. We all have a kind of collective trauma from cases like the Kahui twins. The Sensible Sentencing Trust supports the proposal on the basis that the killing of a child warrants an exceptional response. The argument is that a separate offence would give people concealing information a reason to cooperate, even when police cannot establish which individual inflicted the fatal injuries.
But the objections are compelling too. The right to silence protects innocent people. It means the state has to prove its case rather than compel you to supply one against yourself. Somebody can be frightened, confused, badly advised, or simply unable to explain what happened without being a murderer or knowingly protecting one. This would override the Bill of Rights which expressly protects the right of people arrested or detained to refrain from making a statement.
Inflation is down, hopefully our bills will get the memo soon.
Annual inflation has eased from 4.1% to 3.7% in the September quarter. An improvement, but still above the Reserve Bank’s 1–3% target range. Unsurprisingly, given what is going on in the Strait of Hormuz and the White House, petrol is up 19.1% over the past year. It is also obvious why the election campaign has involved a lot of energy chat given that electricity is up 9.3%.
The oil shock is real, and the New Zealand Government did not start the war in Iran. But it has been a real struggle for the Coalition to get voters to understand how vulnerable we are to overseas goings on. Ordinary folk just see the bills going up and plop the blame on the shoulders of whoever is in the Beehive.
Nonetheless, the Coalition parties will be glad to see the inflation number drop and will welcome even the very small growth of 0.2% in the June Quarter. Anything is better than contraction. It will be very tragic if these are the greens shoots the Government has been promising us, just in time for them to be booted out. Recovery takes time. I hope the Coalition gets more of it.
A crisis with a very selective memory
On Wednesday, RNZ hosted a health debate between current Health Minister Simeon Brown and Labour’s health spokesperson (and former Health Minister) Dr Ayesha Verrall. It was, in my view, one of the most insightful debates of the campaign. If only more New Zealanders knew it existed. WATCH IT HERE.
The debate offered a useful glimpse of what happens when talking points and slogans don’t hold up under pressure. Despite having thoroughly poo-pooed them for three years, Ayesha Verrall confirmed that Labour would keep the Coalition’s health targets. She also acknowledged that Labour’s promised three “free” GP visits might not be with a doctor after all and could be with a nurse practitioner or a phone call. As Simeon Brown pointed out, that is not what they are advertising to voters.
Host Ingrid Hipkiss pressed Verrall on where the extra appointments would come from, while Brown argued that the policy would overwhelm already stretched general practices. She responded with vague suggestions that GP clinics could find efficiencies via better triage systems and use of technology. Hipkiss was dubious that this would free up the necessary approximately 4.5 million GP appointments a year.
Both spokespeople pointed to the Waikato medical school as a source of future workforce supply, but students starting training in 2028 will not be any good for people trying to get an appointment next Tuesday.
Although Verrall struggled to articulate it in the debate, Labour’s ED Recovery Plan proposes a stocktake of unopened beds, early supported discharge teams, more extended-care paramedics, and specialist advice for clinicians treating people in the community.
Labour also promise jobs for about 2,400 eligible New Zealand-trained graduate nurses each year, with roles in hospitals, primary care, and community services. Brown pointed out that Health New Zealand is currently recruiting for the same number of nurses and reminded Verrall that while graduates are valuable additions to the workforce, often the roles needing to be filled are specialised and require substantially more experience.
Brown was not impressed with what he characterised as Verrall politicising the staffing pressures on the Starship oncology ward that made news last week. Hipkiss stepped in to ask Verrall how her criticism stacked up when the nurses’ union’s own figures show the oncology ward was understaffed on about 72% of shifts in 2023 when she was minister, dropping to 31% in 2025 under the Coalition, and 42% so far this year. Children having treatment delayed is distressing and requires action, but it is pretty outrageous that Labour are attacking National for having better staffing levels than they had.
Brown was put under pressure to explain the net increase of just 54 nursing full-time equivalents between March 2024 and March 2026 that Labour keeps repeating. He countered that Labour are deliberately leaving out the timeframe prior to March 2024 in which more than 2000 nurses were hired. Labour claim they are responsible for those, but we tend to measure these things by which term they fall into. He also drew attention to the fact that the number of doctors in our health system dropped by 130 during Verrall’s tenure.
I am very sceptical of the way the unions’ are manipulating the narrative and creating a sense of a much more dire situation than exists in reality. We have seen improvements in virtually every health measure under this government. I explored all of this in Scaremongering unions have a bad case of amnesia.
Business leaders’ confidence in the economy hits 9 year high
The most striking figure in the Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom survey, as curated by Fran O’Sullivan, is the comparison between the 2 prospective Prime Ministers. Asked who had the strongest capacity to drive economic growth, 65% of respondents chose Luxon and 3% chose Hipkins. Three. Whatever reservations business leaders have about the Government, they are considerably more keen to have them continue than have Labour back.
Confidence in the New Zealand economy received an average rating of 3.37 out of 5, up from 2.82 last year and above the previous 9 year high of 3.23 recorded in 2024. More than half of our business leaders were more optimistic than a year ago. Half planned to increase capital expenditure, and three-quarters expected revenue growth.
Luxon will be stoked with these improvements and signals of confidence. But he should resist the temptation to have the result framed for his office as his overall personal political performance received just 2.52 out of 5, and Hipkins beat him on political management. The business community seems more confident that Luxon understands what growth requires than that he is capable of persuading the country to let him deliver it.
Erica Stanford again topped the ministerial rankings, followed by Todd McClay, Mark Mitchell, and Chris Bishop. Stanford’s work in education has been outstanding and it is not surprising that McClay’s success in signing trade deals is popular with business people.
Labour’s finance spokesperson, Barbara Edmonds, has improved her standing, with about 55% regarding her as a credible potential finance minister. She is seen as Labour’s most capable MP and that is something Labour can build on.
On the whole the Coalition will be very pleased with the results and hope this translates to votes by 7 November.
🇦🇺 Horrific attack on Australian MP results in both of legs amputated
Independent Australian MP Helen Haines has lost both legs after a vehicle attack outside her Wangaratta office. The accounts of bystanders running towards her, stopping the bleeding, and restraining the driver are extraordinary. Especially the bravery of a local barber who disarmed the assailant of the knife he was carrying.
Brendan Nugent (43) has been charged with offences including intentionally causing serious injury and causing harm to a Commonwealth public official. His lawyer has raised mental health concerns and a rare neurological condition, idiopathic transverse myelitis. That condition involves inflammation of the spinal cord, but it will be up to his lawyers to argue that it had something to do with his actions.
There has been an extraordinary amount of space in the media devoted to Nugent’s sad life, isolation, childhood, dog, mental health, and former environmental work. Those things may be relevant to understanding him, but the contrast with those details and the vague, evasive descriptions of his politics are telling. He was “interested in” the Israel-Palestine conflict, we are told, as though he simply subscribed to some foreign affairs Substacks. In reality, his social media activity reveals a far left extremist who defended Hamas and the Houthis, disputed accounts of October 7 atrocities, and was antisemitic.
I find it very difficult to imagine an accused attacker with a history of sharing far right content receiving quite so much gentle biographical unpacking without those politics even being named. There are also questions of how well he knew Haines as he had engaged with her online previously and his family seem to indicate that they knew her.
Then there is the story that Anthony Albanese is desperately trying to avoid. Before the attack, after Haines had criticised actions by Labor, Albanese’s staff circulated a dossier to journalists to discredit and smear her. Reporting dates the dossier’s creation as 10 September, two days after her criticism, and just weeks before the attack. Albanese has since insisted it was simply a list of funding requests showing that people of integrity stand up for their electorates.
But it is not simply a list. Alongside listing her requests across two budget submissions, it asks whether Haines received undeclared wine or food, had private interests in projects, or had personal and professional connections with organisations that might benefit. One passage asks whether she had visited, played at, watched games at or had other connections with a local recreation centre because heaven forbid an electorate MP should have watched local sport.
There is no evidence presented that the dossier caused or influenced the alleged attack, and I am not suggesting otherwise. But it jars against Albanese’s gushing characterisations of Haines as a “deeply respected politician” and “a beacon of light”. He says he wants people to turn the temperature down on their rhetoric. Perhaps he could begin with the thermostat in his own office.
Conspiracy of the week: Soldier, Protester, Politician, Plant?
I stumbled across a detailed and dramatic conspiracy on X this week. It comes from the left, but is not directed at the right for once. Some people appear to suspect that Green candidate and former NZSAS soldier Josh Jacobsen is a plant! They have assembled his service history, post-military employment, and involvement in the Pūtiki protest, alongside suspicions voiced by some people associated with that occupation. They go as far as calling him a potential war criminal.
I know very little about the Greens candidate, but the theory seems pretty far fetched. It requires him to have gotten himself arrested at a protest as some kind of false flag operation and then run for the Greens as part of a covert operation. I think he is probably just an ex-soldier with a penchant for the environment.
🇫🇷 France burns in “mostly peaceful” protests
Yeap. The BBC did the meme calling the protests “mostly peaceful”. France has had over a week of violence and destruction which has proved to be more than some political commentators can handle. More honest reporting on the unrest put the number of damaged or looted businesses at at least 3,000, with at least 2,400 arrests over the weekend. In Limoges, the beautiful historic city hall was set alight. As a result authorities have imposed curfews and banned planned demonstrations in some cities as they prepare for another weekend of possible violence.
The complaints driving the demonstrations are said to include living costs, education, deteriorating public services, and just generally the French tendency to take to the streets. Anyone with at least one functioning eye and half a brain can observe, however, that the protests are being lead primarily by immigrants, second generation immigrants, and youthful leftist sympathisers.
Macron has blamed far left groups for trying to bring down the Republic and US President Trump and reform UK leader Nigel Farage have be explicit in their warnings that this is a result of uncontrolled mass migration of predominantly men from vastly different cultures. Whether the rest of Europe and the UK learn from this remains to be seen.
Trans madness continues in New Zealand
I was absolutely bloody furious to discover the High Court overturned the Government’s restrictions on new puberty blocker prescriptions for children and adolescents with gender dysphoria or gender incongruence. PATHA is celebrating, and its deranged representatives are speaking as though a successful judicial review settles the clinical argument. It does not. A court setting aside regulations does not establish that the treatment those regulations restricted is safe, effective, or morally sound.
You can read what Justice La Hood actually decided here. He found the consultation inadequate because gender diverse young people had not been directly consulted as required. He also found the prohibition disproportionately limited freedom from discrimination on the ground of disability. Good to know we are allowed to discuss transgenderism in appropriate medical terms. We’ve been told that is bigotry for the past decade or so. He also placed weight on the affected young people’s vulnerability and the short term relief of distress from preventing unwanted physical changes. I would argue that their vulnerability is a better reason for preventing them from ruining their bodies and future fertility for little benefit.
However, Justice La Hood rejected the allegation that Minister Simeon Brown had surrendered his decision making to Cabinet or was improperly advancing New Zealand First’s “anti-woke” agenda. He accepted that Brown had a rational basis to reach a different conclusion from the Ministry on the evidence, particularly given the British position following the Cass review.
I believe we will look back on this as a medical scandal and those who supported it will have to do some soul searching.
Even Britain’s Labour Government has made restrictions on new private and overseas prescribing indefinite under Wes Streeting. In the United States, the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s restrictions in United States v Skrmetti.
Again I will waste my breath arguing that PATHA badly needs scrutiny like that which its global equivalent WPATH has been subjected to. The University of York review commissioned for Cass found that WPATH’s guidelines lacked developmental rigour and transparency. Justice Clarence Thomas’s separate opinion in Skrmetti skewered them for politicisation and lack of evidence. These organisations have been allowed to dictate substantial policy affecting the wellbeing of young people and they have been found to lack credibility and expertise.
PATHA’s president who has no medical qualifications, Jennifer Shields, says restrictions are rooted in disinformation. I contend that it is he who is guilty of spreading misinformation.
It is interesting that the decision was released just 17 days before the election. Readers can form their own views about the political effect of that timing. Regardless, our ability to protect these children relies entirely on the outcome of the election. Simeon Brown, NZ First, and ACT have been solid on this and I have confidence that if they are returned to government they will do what it takes to get the ban in place. On the other hand, I half expect Labour and the gang to declare that puberty blockers should be available in every school tuck shop.
John Minto appoints himself border control
The Free Palestine Party’s top list candidate, John Minto, has published photographs of two Israeli who are in New Zealand on holiday and urged people who saw them to let them know they are not welcome. He says they identified themselves as IDF soldiers at a Palestine stall in Christchurch. Having described them as fresh from taking part in genocide, Minto subsequently told Stuff he was not accusing them of war crimes, but saying they belonged to an organisation that had committed them.
If Minto has evidence that particular people have committed crimes, he can give it to the appropriate authorities, but publishing faces and inviting the public to deliver a very hostile message is something else. Being Israeli, or having served in a military with compulsory conscription, does not establish individual criminal responsibility. Targeting people in this way imposes collective blame and risks inciting violence. Would we not rightly object to Russians or Iranians being harassed on the basis of their governments’ conduct?
A moral compass in need of checking
On the topic of antisemitism, some of you enquired as to why I am so concerned about Labour candidate Max Harris getting into Parliament. Juliet Moses has written a detailed critique of the Labour Party’s Tāmaki candidate for Kiwiblog. She tells of how he apparently introduced himself at an event as having a strong moral compass. A bold thing to claim about yourself when you have expressed support for designated terrorists groups. You can read it here.
Beleaguered bureaucrats and bad cops
Fire and Emergency chief executive Kerry Gregory finally resigned on Friday, more than a month after Minister Brooke van Velden publicly withdrew confidence in him. She had accused him of withholding significant information for a year, and a historical matter concerning the levy scheme has been referred to the Serious Fraud Office. After weeks of extended leave and careful statements about process, he has now exited and the organisation can hopefully get back to concentrating on the people who fight fires.
Chief of Defence Force Air Marshal Tony Davies also resigned, acknowledging an “inappropriate relationship” while in a position of unit command and regretting that he had not disclosed it when he had the opportunity. Minister Paul Goldsmith agreed his position was no longer tenable, and the matter has been referred to the Inspector General of Defence.
In Whanganui, Senior Constable Peter Elliot Gray has been tentatively scheduled for trial next April over allegations including tipping off suspected drug dealers about planned search warrants and dishonestly accessing a restricted database. He has been suspended on pay.
Former constable Steven Karehana’s case is further along. He has pleaded guilty to stealing a police Glock and unlawfully possessing it. The gun was passed on and sold for $10,000 of which Karehana received $5,000. Less than 2 years before his guilty pleas, he received the Commissioner’s Leadership Award on graduation, and he later appeared in police recruitment material encouraging recruits to bring their authentic selves. Awkward.
🇺🇸 Ilhan Omar consults the family tree
In even more awkward news, Democrat Congresswoman Ilhan Omar is having a shocker of a week. Following the search of her Washington home as part of an immigration fraud investigation, longstanding allegations that she was previously married to her own brother are seeming more and more likely to be true.
And my goodness, she is not helping herself. Asked whether she was related to her former husband, Omar replied, “Not to my knowledge.” Not to her knowledge! You might think this was something she could answer with a little more confidence. Her office says she was being sarcastic, which is an interesting strategy when trying to put an incest allegation to bed. So to speak.
Trump is, predictably, having the time of his life with this. He has called for her resignation and says she could be deported. If the allegations really are baseless, as she maintains, clear answers would serve her considerably better than indignation and a denial that sounds as though she needs to ring an auntie to check.
Women-only gym opens in CHCH. How long until a man demands entry?
A new women-only gym opening in Christchurch has already signed up more than 200 members, with another 400 registered to attend its launch. Entrepreneur Carla de Nijs has poured a couple of million dollars into creating a space where women can lift weights, do Pilates, use the sauna, and generally get sweaty without feeling watched, judged, or intimidated by men. She’s clearly identified a market, and good on her.
Now, who’s taking bets on how long it takes for some bloke to turn up demanding entry because he identifies as a lady?
Loss for Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and her whānau
My sincere condolences to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, her whānau, and Te Pāti Māori following the death of her mother, Colleen Ngarewa. Ngarewa-Packer had already stepped back from the election campaign as her mother became more unwell. Her public discussion of her mother made it clear that their relationship was very close and it is an awful thing to have grieve your mum as you try to get re-elected. I wish her and her family the best.
In short — other stuff that happened
J.K. Rowling has published an update to her 2020 essay explaining why she speaks out about sex, gender, and women’s rights. It is well worth reading, particularly for her argument that the women most affected by the removal of single-sex spaces are often those with the least money and influence. A wealthy actress with private security and her own dressing room can afford to be relaxed about boundaries that matter rather more to a nurse getting changed for work or a woman seeking support after rape.
Rowling also shares an interesting observation from her Women’s Fund, which helps women defend their rights through the courts. She says applications involving private businesses have dropped markedly since the British Supreme Court’s ruling on biological sex, while publicly funded institutions remain much more resistant. Businesses have to consider whether fighting a case is worth spending their own money. Public bodies have the considerable advantage of spending ours.
What I appreciate is that Rowling has put her money behind her convictions, funding both legal support and Beira’s Place, a women-only sexual violence support service in Edinburgh. She could afford to disengage from the whole exhausting argument and live very comfortably indeed. Instead, she is helping women who cannot afford to walk away from it because the consequences turn up in their workplaces, their changing rooms, and the services they need. I love her. READ HER UPDATE.
I also wrote Substacks on the gang situation and the health crisis.
Ani O'Brien comes from a digital marketing background, she has been heavily involved in women's rights advocacy and is a founding council member of the Free Speech Union. This article was originally published on Ani's Substack Site and is published here with kind permission.
Te Pāti Māori has responded by accusing the political right of racism and exploiting the controversy to divide Māori. The irony is that it was Te Pāti Māori MP Oriini Kaipara who dobbed Leoni in during the Whakaata Māori electorate debate. Labour initially denied her accusations, only for the pictures and footage to arrive in short order. Kaipara now has a considerably easier run home, although it is too late to remove Leoni from the ballot.
The footage showed the Labour candidate decked out in party uniform speaking to patched Mongrel Mob members about changing the government. The photograph was arguably even worse, with Leoni standing in the middle of a large group holding a sign featuring herself and Hipkins as those around her made Mongrel Mob signs with their hands and arms. Including the children.
Leoni maintains it was a family event and that she cannot change who her whānau are and would not turn her back on them. Nobody should have to apologise for the family they were born into. But she had a choice about whether to bring her campaign into a gang gathering. You can love a relative without lending the organisation he belongs to your political endorsement.
Hipkins was right to say campaigning alongside gangs was unacceptable and to accept her resignation. But it certainly allowed the Coalition parties to dine out on Labour’s predicament. David Seymour was not shy about rubbing salt in the wound, suggesting there was a possibility Labour was being funded by “P money”, before adding that he did not mean the artist from the 1990s.
Unfortunately for Hipkins, his problems with gangs extend beyond discovering where his candidates have been spending their weekends. He now says the previous Labour Government should never have funded gang-run services and that he was not involved in Cabinet discussions about the matter. Yet in September 2023, when he was Prime Minister, he publicly explained that Cabinet had considered restricting government contracts with gangs or gang associates and decided against it.
“We did look at it,” he said then. “And ultimately what we found was that it was going to do more harm than good.” He defended programmes he said were having a positive impact and argued that an arbitrary ban could also affect services supporting women and children. Asked about those comments this week, Hipkins said he could not recall them, noting that Cabinet made hundreds of decisions and he did not have an encyclopaedic memory.
Mongrel Mob life member Harry Tam has noticed the change of heart in Chris Hipkins' and is absolutely filthy about it. In an interview, he accused Hipkins of throwing Jacinda Ardern “under the bloody bus” and changing his position for political expediency. Tam said Hipkins could not be trusted and complained that the backlash against the gang-pad visits “reeks of fascism”.
Election 2026: Polls, polls, polls
National finally has a polling result worth smiling about. The latest 1News Verian poll puts it on 32%, up 4 points in a week (send Harry Tam a bunch of flowers), while Labour has slipped to 27%. ACT is on 11%, New Zealand First 8%, the Greens 16%, Opportunity 7%, and Te Pāti Māori 0.7%. That is a welcome improvement for the blue team, but the published seat projection still leaves the existing Coalition on 60 seats, one short of a majority.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll paints a different picture of the major parties, with Labour narrowly ahead on 28.7% and National on 27.6%. It has NZ First considerably higher at 11.8%, ACT on 9%, the Greens on 14.3%, Opportunity on 5.4%, and Te Pāti Māori on 2%. Its seat calculation gives the existing Coalition 59 seats and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 54. Opportunity’s projected 7 MPs would therefore give either side a majority. Unfortunately for Christopher “I couldn’t be any clearer” Luxon, Opportunity keeps appearing as the kingmaker in the parliamentary arithmetic.
Opportunity’s position is, however, less secure than some of its enthusiastic media coverage suggests. It is comfortably over the threshold at 7% in Verian, but only just over at 5.4% in Freshwater. Its October results have ranged from 4.8% to 8%. If they get into Parliament it would completely change the distribution of seats,but it is far from certain.
The Auckland-only figures from the Post/Freshwater survey are much more encouraging for National. Among likely Auckland voters, National is on 37.7% against Labour’s 26.4%, followed by the Greens on 13.4%, ACT on 8.8%, and NZ First on 7.3%. Yet, oddly, Hipkins leads Luxon as preferred prime minister in that same Auckland survey, 45.9% to 41.1%.
In the electorates, the Whakaata Māori-Curia poll had Tāmaki Makaurau looking competitive before Kerrin Leoni’s campaign imploded. Oriini Kaipara was on 33%, Leoni 31%, and Green candidate Florence Te Ohaere 21%. The fieldwork took place between 5 and 15 October, so those figures predate Leoni’s resignation. Kaipara had a serious contest on her hands but calling out her rival in a live debate took care of that.
Labour candidate, and former minister, Michael Wood also has reason to feel cheerful. A Community Engagement poll commissioned by his own campaign puts him on 47% in Mt Roskill against National’s Carlos Cheung on 29.9%. Wood is standing electorate-only, so he needs the seat to return to Parliament. In Mt Albert, an early-October Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll had Helen White only 5 points ahead of Melissa Lee. Given White held the seat by just 18 votes last time, this could go down to the wire.
Finally, Catherine Wedd has a clear lead in Tukituki. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll puts her on 35%, Labour’s Dan Scott on 20%, and NZ First’s Taine Randell on 15%, with 10% undecided. Only 12% of respondents could name Scott, compared with 54% for Wedd, and 44% for Randell.
Election 2026: Promises, promises
The policies keep dropping! I will keep the details to a minimum to try fit as many in as possible. ACT wants to make it easier for teenagers to learn a trade while still at school so they propose allowing schools to keep their funding when students spend part of the week learning with an employer or training provider, in addition to receiving extra money to help pay for practical courses. ACT reckons it can do this by bringing existing funding programmes together rather than spending more.
The idea is to make it easier and more appealing for young people to get into trades rather than funnelling everyone off to university. Students could also earn an Industry Award showing employers they have learned skills relevant to a particular trade and they could earn University Entrance at the same time, so choosing practical subjects would not close off university later.
National is promising maths catch-up support for another 40,000 students in Years 7–10 over 3 years. Much of the wider children’s package consists of pulling together things already announced or underway, with their tried and true emphasis on teaching children the basics. The proposed and problematic under 16 social media ban is in their too and Labour is keen on it as well, while New Zealand First has acknowledged the problem, but slammed the solution. Act too has opposed it.
For older New Zealanders, National is promising more affordable housing options, easier rules for building granny flats and tiny homes, and a free helpline to help people find government services. It also wants stronger protections against financial abuse.
New Zealand First wants manufacturers and certain export businesses to be able to deduct half the cost of new machinery and equipment from their taxable income in the year they buy it. That would reduce their tax bill upfront, making it easier to afford investments that help them produce more and hire more staff. The party’s defence plans are much more bold with more personnel, changes to military leadership, equipment purchases, and defence spending rising to 3% of the economy by 2032. Of note is their plan to adjust the attitude and culture of the Defence Force to one reminiscent of the changes made by Pete Hegseth in the US. They want a “rigorous combat/warrior focus” and a policy of appointments based “strictly on merit” with the exception of carving out “female-specific roles where operationally advantageous”.
The Greens released their fiscal policy with dramatic pronouncements from Chloe Swarbrick with strong catch-me-outside-how-‘bout-dat-vibes as she challenged Nicola Willis to “say it to my face”. They are promising another $32 billion for health over 4 years, paid for through higher taxes and more borrowing. Their plan accordingly allows for about $1 billion a year in extra interest payments by 2030/31. Our interest bill is already nearing $10 billion.
Meanwhile, Opportunity seems to want to anger young people by taking away one of the few ways they can getting on the housing ladder by removing the ability to withdraw future savings under KiwiSaver for a first-home deposit. Existing savings would remain available under the current rules, and the party suggests people could use their future balance as security for a mortgage instead. Economist Shamubeel Eaqub called the policy stupid and I tend to agree.
The Kahui law: National wants the adults talking
National wants to make it a crime to withhold information from police in certain cases where a child has been killed. Its proposed exception to the right to silence would apply to adults established to have been present at the location at the time of, or leading up to, the killing, with a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. Paul Goldsmith says the aim is to break the wall of silence that has frustrated investigations into some of our most appalling child deaths.
The appeal is totally understandable. We all have a kind of collective trauma from cases like the Kahui twins. The Sensible Sentencing Trust supports the proposal on the basis that the killing of a child warrants an exceptional response. The argument is that a separate offence would give people concealing information a reason to cooperate, even when police cannot establish which individual inflicted the fatal injuries.
But the objections are compelling too. The right to silence protects innocent people. It means the state has to prove its case rather than compel you to supply one against yourself. Somebody can be frightened, confused, badly advised, or simply unable to explain what happened without being a murderer or knowingly protecting one. This would override the Bill of Rights which expressly protects the right of people arrested or detained to refrain from making a statement.
Inflation is down, hopefully our bills will get the memo soon.
Annual inflation has eased from 4.1% to 3.7% in the September quarter. An improvement, but still above the Reserve Bank’s 1–3% target range. Unsurprisingly, given what is going on in the Strait of Hormuz and the White House, petrol is up 19.1% over the past year. It is also obvious why the election campaign has involved a lot of energy chat given that electricity is up 9.3%.
The oil shock is real, and the New Zealand Government did not start the war in Iran. But it has been a real struggle for the Coalition to get voters to understand how vulnerable we are to overseas goings on. Ordinary folk just see the bills going up and plop the blame on the shoulders of whoever is in the Beehive.
Nonetheless, the Coalition parties will be glad to see the inflation number drop and will welcome even the very small growth of 0.2% in the June Quarter. Anything is better than contraction. It will be very tragic if these are the greens shoots the Government has been promising us, just in time for them to be booted out. Recovery takes time. I hope the Coalition gets more of it.
A crisis with a very selective memory
On Wednesday, RNZ hosted a health debate between current Health Minister Simeon Brown and Labour’s health spokesperson (and former Health Minister) Dr Ayesha Verrall. It was, in my view, one of the most insightful debates of the campaign. If only more New Zealanders knew it existed. WATCH IT HERE.
The debate offered a useful glimpse of what happens when talking points and slogans don’t hold up under pressure. Despite having thoroughly poo-pooed them for three years, Ayesha Verrall confirmed that Labour would keep the Coalition’s health targets. She also acknowledged that Labour’s promised three “free” GP visits might not be with a doctor after all and could be with a nurse practitioner or a phone call. As Simeon Brown pointed out, that is not what they are advertising to voters.
Host Ingrid Hipkiss pressed Verrall on where the extra appointments would come from, while Brown argued that the policy would overwhelm already stretched general practices. She responded with vague suggestions that GP clinics could find efficiencies via better triage systems and use of technology. Hipkiss was dubious that this would free up the necessary approximately 4.5 million GP appointments a year.
Both spokespeople pointed to the Waikato medical school as a source of future workforce supply, but students starting training in 2028 will not be any good for people trying to get an appointment next Tuesday.
Although Verrall struggled to articulate it in the debate, Labour’s ED Recovery Plan proposes a stocktake of unopened beds, early supported discharge teams, more extended-care paramedics, and specialist advice for clinicians treating people in the community.
Labour also promise jobs for about 2,400 eligible New Zealand-trained graduate nurses each year, with roles in hospitals, primary care, and community services. Brown pointed out that Health New Zealand is currently recruiting for the same number of nurses and reminded Verrall that while graduates are valuable additions to the workforce, often the roles needing to be filled are specialised and require substantially more experience.
Brown was not impressed with what he characterised as Verrall politicising the staffing pressures on the Starship oncology ward that made news last week. Hipkiss stepped in to ask Verrall how her criticism stacked up when the nurses’ union’s own figures show the oncology ward was understaffed on about 72% of shifts in 2023 when she was minister, dropping to 31% in 2025 under the Coalition, and 42% so far this year. Children having treatment delayed is distressing and requires action, but it is pretty outrageous that Labour are attacking National for having better staffing levels than they had.
Brown was put under pressure to explain the net increase of just 54 nursing full-time equivalents between March 2024 and March 2026 that Labour keeps repeating. He countered that Labour are deliberately leaving out the timeframe prior to March 2024 in which more than 2000 nurses were hired. Labour claim they are responsible for those, but we tend to measure these things by which term they fall into. He also drew attention to the fact that the number of doctors in our health system dropped by 130 during Verrall’s tenure.
I am very sceptical of the way the unions’ are manipulating the narrative and creating a sense of a much more dire situation than exists in reality. We have seen improvements in virtually every health measure under this government. I explored all of this in Scaremongering unions have a bad case of amnesia.
Business leaders’ confidence in the economy hits 9 year high
The most striking figure in the Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom survey, as curated by Fran O’Sullivan, is the comparison between the 2 prospective Prime Ministers. Asked who had the strongest capacity to drive economic growth, 65% of respondents chose Luxon and 3% chose Hipkins. Three. Whatever reservations business leaders have about the Government, they are considerably more keen to have them continue than have Labour back.
Confidence in the New Zealand economy received an average rating of 3.37 out of 5, up from 2.82 last year and above the previous 9 year high of 3.23 recorded in 2024. More than half of our business leaders were more optimistic than a year ago. Half planned to increase capital expenditure, and three-quarters expected revenue growth.
Luxon will be stoked with these improvements and signals of confidence. But he should resist the temptation to have the result framed for his office as his overall personal political performance received just 2.52 out of 5, and Hipkins beat him on political management. The business community seems more confident that Luxon understands what growth requires than that he is capable of persuading the country to let him deliver it.
Erica Stanford again topped the ministerial rankings, followed by Todd McClay, Mark Mitchell, and Chris Bishop. Stanford’s work in education has been outstanding and it is not surprising that McClay’s success in signing trade deals is popular with business people.
Labour’s finance spokesperson, Barbara Edmonds, has improved her standing, with about 55% regarding her as a credible potential finance minister. She is seen as Labour’s most capable MP and that is something Labour can build on.
On the whole the Coalition will be very pleased with the results and hope this translates to votes by 7 November.
🇦🇺 Horrific attack on Australian MP results in both of legs amputated
Independent Australian MP Helen Haines has lost both legs after a vehicle attack outside her Wangaratta office. The accounts of bystanders running towards her, stopping the bleeding, and restraining the driver are extraordinary. Especially the bravery of a local barber who disarmed the assailant of the knife he was carrying.
Brendan Nugent (43) has been charged with offences including intentionally causing serious injury and causing harm to a Commonwealth public official. His lawyer has raised mental health concerns and a rare neurological condition, idiopathic transverse myelitis. That condition involves inflammation of the spinal cord, but it will be up to his lawyers to argue that it had something to do with his actions.
There has been an extraordinary amount of space in the media devoted to Nugent’s sad life, isolation, childhood, dog, mental health, and former environmental work. Those things may be relevant to understanding him, but the contrast with those details and the vague, evasive descriptions of his politics are telling. He was “interested in” the Israel-Palestine conflict, we are told, as though he simply subscribed to some foreign affairs Substacks. In reality, his social media activity reveals a far left extremist who defended Hamas and the Houthis, disputed accounts of October 7 atrocities, and was antisemitic.
I find it very difficult to imagine an accused attacker with a history of sharing far right content receiving quite so much gentle biographical unpacking without those politics even being named. There are also questions of how well he knew Haines as he had engaged with her online previously and his family seem to indicate that they knew her.
Then there is the story that Anthony Albanese is desperately trying to avoid. Before the attack, after Haines had criticised actions by Labor, Albanese’s staff circulated a dossier to journalists to discredit and smear her. Reporting dates the dossier’s creation as 10 September, two days after her criticism, and just weeks before the attack. Albanese has since insisted it was simply a list of funding requests showing that people of integrity stand up for their electorates.
But it is not simply a list. Alongside listing her requests across two budget submissions, it asks whether Haines received undeclared wine or food, had private interests in projects, or had personal and professional connections with organisations that might benefit. One passage asks whether she had visited, played at, watched games at or had other connections with a local recreation centre because heaven forbid an electorate MP should have watched local sport.
There is no evidence presented that the dossier caused or influenced the alleged attack, and I am not suggesting otherwise. But it jars against Albanese’s gushing characterisations of Haines as a “deeply respected politician” and “a beacon of light”. He says he wants people to turn the temperature down on their rhetoric. Perhaps he could begin with the thermostat in his own office.
Conspiracy of the week: Soldier, Protester, Politician, Plant?
I stumbled across a detailed and dramatic conspiracy on X this week. It comes from the left, but is not directed at the right for once. Some people appear to suspect that Green candidate and former NZSAS soldier Josh Jacobsen is a plant! They have assembled his service history, post-military employment, and involvement in the Pūtiki protest, alongside suspicions voiced by some people associated with that occupation. They go as far as calling him a potential war criminal.
I know very little about the Greens candidate, but the theory seems pretty far fetched. It requires him to have gotten himself arrested at a protest as some kind of false flag operation and then run for the Greens as part of a covert operation. I think he is probably just an ex-soldier with a penchant for the environment.
🇫🇷 France burns in “mostly peaceful” protests
Yeap. The BBC did the meme calling the protests “mostly peaceful”. France has had over a week of violence and destruction which has proved to be more than some political commentators can handle. More honest reporting on the unrest put the number of damaged or looted businesses at at least 3,000, with at least 2,400 arrests over the weekend. In Limoges, the beautiful historic city hall was set alight. As a result authorities have imposed curfews and banned planned demonstrations in some cities as they prepare for another weekend of possible violence.
The complaints driving the demonstrations are said to include living costs, education, deteriorating public services, and just generally the French tendency to take to the streets. Anyone with at least one functioning eye and half a brain can observe, however, that the protests are being lead primarily by immigrants, second generation immigrants, and youthful leftist sympathisers.
Macron has blamed far left groups for trying to bring down the Republic and US President Trump and reform UK leader Nigel Farage have be explicit in their warnings that this is a result of uncontrolled mass migration of predominantly men from vastly different cultures. Whether the rest of Europe and the UK learn from this remains to be seen.
Trans madness continues in New Zealand
I was absolutely bloody furious to discover the High Court overturned the Government’s restrictions on new puberty blocker prescriptions for children and adolescents with gender dysphoria or gender incongruence. PATHA is celebrating, and its deranged representatives are speaking as though a successful judicial review settles the clinical argument. It does not. A court setting aside regulations does not establish that the treatment those regulations restricted is safe, effective, or morally sound.
You can read what Justice La Hood actually decided here. He found the consultation inadequate because gender diverse young people had not been directly consulted as required. He also found the prohibition disproportionately limited freedom from discrimination on the ground of disability. Good to know we are allowed to discuss transgenderism in appropriate medical terms. We’ve been told that is bigotry for the past decade or so. He also placed weight on the affected young people’s vulnerability and the short term relief of distress from preventing unwanted physical changes. I would argue that their vulnerability is a better reason for preventing them from ruining their bodies and future fertility for little benefit.
However, Justice La Hood rejected the allegation that Minister Simeon Brown had surrendered his decision making to Cabinet or was improperly advancing New Zealand First’s “anti-woke” agenda. He accepted that Brown had a rational basis to reach a different conclusion from the Ministry on the evidence, particularly given the British position following the Cass review.
I believe we will look back on this as a medical scandal and those who supported it will have to do some soul searching.
Even Britain’s Labour Government has made restrictions on new private and overseas prescribing indefinite under Wes Streeting. In the United States, the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s restrictions in United States v Skrmetti.
Again I will waste my breath arguing that PATHA badly needs scrutiny like that which its global equivalent WPATH has been subjected to. The University of York review commissioned for Cass found that WPATH’s guidelines lacked developmental rigour and transparency. Justice Clarence Thomas’s separate opinion in Skrmetti skewered them for politicisation and lack of evidence. These organisations have been allowed to dictate substantial policy affecting the wellbeing of young people and they have been found to lack credibility and expertise.
PATHA’s president who has no medical qualifications, Jennifer Shields, says restrictions are rooted in disinformation. I contend that it is he who is guilty of spreading misinformation.
It is interesting that the decision was released just 17 days before the election. Readers can form their own views about the political effect of that timing. Regardless, our ability to protect these children relies entirely on the outcome of the election. Simeon Brown, NZ First, and ACT have been solid on this and I have confidence that if they are returned to government they will do what it takes to get the ban in place. On the other hand, I half expect Labour and the gang to declare that puberty blockers should be available in every school tuck shop.
John Minto appoints himself border control
The Free Palestine Party’s top list candidate, John Minto, has published photographs of two Israeli who are in New Zealand on holiday and urged people who saw them to let them know they are not welcome. He says they identified themselves as IDF soldiers at a Palestine stall in Christchurch. Having described them as fresh from taking part in genocide, Minto subsequently told Stuff he was not accusing them of war crimes, but saying they belonged to an organisation that had committed them.
If Minto has evidence that particular people have committed crimes, he can give it to the appropriate authorities, but publishing faces and inviting the public to deliver a very hostile message is something else. Being Israeli, or having served in a military with compulsory conscription, does not establish individual criminal responsibility. Targeting people in this way imposes collective blame and risks inciting violence. Would we not rightly object to Russians or Iranians being harassed on the basis of their governments’ conduct?
A moral compass in need of checking
On the topic of antisemitism, some of you enquired as to why I am so concerned about Labour candidate Max Harris getting into Parliament. Juliet Moses has written a detailed critique of the Labour Party’s Tāmaki candidate for Kiwiblog. She tells of how he apparently introduced himself at an event as having a strong moral compass. A bold thing to claim about yourself when you have expressed support for designated terrorists groups. You can read it here.
Beleaguered bureaucrats and bad cops
Fire and Emergency chief executive Kerry Gregory finally resigned on Friday, more than a month after Minister Brooke van Velden publicly withdrew confidence in him. She had accused him of withholding significant information for a year, and a historical matter concerning the levy scheme has been referred to the Serious Fraud Office. After weeks of extended leave and careful statements about process, he has now exited and the organisation can hopefully get back to concentrating on the people who fight fires.
Chief of Defence Force Air Marshal Tony Davies also resigned, acknowledging an “inappropriate relationship” while in a position of unit command and regretting that he had not disclosed it when he had the opportunity. Minister Paul Goldsmith agreed his position was no longer tenable, and the matter has been referred to the Inspector General of Defence.
In Whanganui, Senior Constable Peter Elliot Gray has been tentatively scheduled for trial next April over allegations including tipping off suspected drug dealers about planned search warrants and dishonestly accessing a restricted database. He has been suspended on pay.
Former constable Steven Karehana’s case is further along. He has pleaded guilty to stealing a police Glock and unlawfully possessing it. The gun was passed on and sold for $10,000 of which Karehana received $5,000. Less than 2 years before his guilty pleas, he received the Commissioner’s Leadership Award on graduation, and he later appeared in police recruitment material encouraging recruits to bring their authentic selves. Awkward.
🇺🇸 Ilhan Omar consults the family tree
In even more awkward news, Democrat Congresswoman Ilhan Omar is having a shocker of a week. Following the search of her Washington home as part of an immigration fraud investigation, longstanding allegations that she was previously married to her own brother are seeming more and more likely to be true.
And my goodness, she is not helping herself. Asked whether she was related to her former husband, Omar replied, “Not to my knowledge.” Not to her knowledge! You might think this was something she could answer with a little more confidence. Her office says she was being sarcastic, which is an interesting strategy when trying to put an incest allegation to bed. So to speak.
Trump is, predictably, having the time of his life with this. He has called for her resignation and says she could be deported. If the allegations really are baseless, as she maintains, clear answers would serve her considerably better than indignation and a denial that sounds as though she needs to ring an auntie to check.
Women-only gym opens in CHCH. How long until a man demands entry?
A new women-only gym opening in Christchurch has already signed up more than 200 members, with another 400 registered to attend its launch. Entrepreneur Carla de Nijs has poured a couple of million dollars into creating a space where women can lift weights, do Pilates, use the sauna, and generally get sweaty without feeling watched, judged, or intimidated by men. She’s clearly identified a market, and good on her.
Now, who’s taking bets on how long it takes for some bloke to turn up demanding entry because he identifies as a lady?
Loss for Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and her whānau
My sincere condolences to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, her whānau, and Te Pāti Māori following the death of her mother, Colleen Ngarewa. Ngarewa-Packer had already stepped back from the election campaign as her mother became more unwell. Her public discussion of her mother made it clear that their relationship was very close and it is an awful thing to have grieve your mum as you try to get re-elected. I wish her and her family the best.
In short — other stuff that happened
- The Kyle Whorrall murder trial began in Auckland. Four teenagers deny murder and aggravated robbery charges but a 5th has already pleaded guilty. The Crown says the American PhD student was attacked with a machete after stopping at a Meadowbank bus stop on his way home from the supermarket.
- Labour is proposing a digital duty of care for online platforms, enforced by an independent regulator with powers to impose fines. Alongside its proposed under 16 social media ban, it would require platforms to offer users a choice between algorithm-selected content and a feed containing only posts from accounts they follow.
- The search continues for Sam Newton-Jones (33) an Auckland father of 2 whose car was found at the Mercer Bay Loop carpark near Piha. Anyone who saw him on the track or around Piha is being asked to contact police.
- ACT wants 10,000 students enrolled in charter schools by the end of 2029, with a charter-school option in every major town and more existing state and state-integrated schools converting to the model.
- 🇺🇸🇵🇭 Thomas Markle Senior, Meghan Markle’s father, has been reported to police in the Philippines by his son, Thomas Junior, who alleges he found “hundreds, if not thousands” of child sexual abuse images in 4 boxes at his father’s home in Cebu. Thomas Junior submitted a sworn statement to police and agreed to hand over the boxes for forensic examination.
- ACT is promising an additional $400 million for general practice over four years on top of normal funding increases. The money would support retaining existing doctors, recruiting overseas doctors, and providing more appointments.
- A 4 year old landed a punch in Christopher Luxon’s gut. His mother said the Prime Minister had been kneeling and shadowboxing with her son before he stood and the little one continued the game.
- NZ First wants to increase the gaming-development rebate from 20% to 40% and raise the maximum annual claim per studio from $3 million to $10 million. It would lower the minimum qualifying expenditure from $250,000 to $150,000 and increase annual funding for the Centre of Digital Excellence (CODE) from $5 million to $7 million by 2028.
- Labour says police have confirmed their candidate and former police superintendent Rakesh Naidoo is not under investigation. Police Minister Mark Mitchell had referred to an “ongoing matter” involving Naidoo and a sensitive briefing he attended before declaring his political intentions. Not sure what’s up there.
- Brian Tamaki says Australia cancelled his visa after 12 hours of questioning, citing concerns about inflammatory statements and risks to parts of the community.
- Former Environment Southland chief executive Wilma Falconer received a severance payment of $346,037, on top of salary, accrued leave, and a vehicle she was allowed to keep. What a golden handshake!
- A second man has been charged with offences relating to the concealment of Braydon Hepworth’s body. Police are still investigating how the 21 year old Christchurch father died and the charges so far do not relate to involvement in his death.
- Woolworths no longer has an in-store butcher working in any South Island supermarket, citing persistent recruitment difficulties as it moves to centrally prepared meat. The union estimates about 40 jobs were lost.
- Police and Oranga Tamariki are jointly investigating a community-based tutor who worked with schools and organisations in Waikato and the Bay of Plenty. They have asked parents not to conduct their own questioning of children and stress that being contacted does not mean their child was harmed.
- 🇺🇸 Gurinder Gill claimed his estranged wife, Jasmine, had been taken away by ICE but after her burned remains were identified in California he has been charged with her murder.
- ACT’s Pharmacy First policy would allow pharmacists to assess and treat more common conditions, including sore throats, minor skin infections and gout, under clinical protocols. It also proposes a National Cancer Centre with major campuses in Auckland and Christchurch, with around $2 billion set aside in its fiscal plan alongside potential private investment and philanthropy.
- 🇺🇸🇬🇧 British music teacher Sonia Exelby (32) travelled to Florida in October 2025 and, according to police, paid Dwain Hall (54) to kill her. Hall allegedly recorded a video in which a heavily bruised Exelby said she had travelled there to die and was not being forced. Her body was found in a shallow grave days later. Her family say she had been groomed online for two years. Hall denies first-degree murder and kidnapping and is due to stand trial in November.
- A mother and aunt were sentenced to 12 and 10 months’ home detention for manslaughter after a girl with complex medical needs died in their care. Over 3 days, the sisters exchanged messages arguing about who should take her to hospital as she suffered headaches and vomiting. She was found unconscious on her aunt’s couch on the 4th day and could not be revived.
- Israel has been accepted as a partner state of the Pacific Islands Forum. Chris Hipkins says a Labour government would have opposed the decision, while Christopher Luxon has defended Israel’s longstanding relationships with Pacific countries. New Zealand hosts the forum next year.
- Mātātā, or fernbirds, have been spotted at Lake Kōhangaterā in Wellington’s East Harbour Regional Park. The species has been largely absent from Wellington and Wairarapa for about 70 years. A survey conducted found the birds had returned naturally. Did they survey the birds by calling their landline?
J.K. Rowling has published an update to her 2020 essay explaining why she speaks out about sex, gender, and women’s rights. It is well worth reading, particularly for her argument that the women most affected by the removal of single-sex spaces are often those with the least money and influence. A wealthy actress with private security and her own dressing room can afford to be relaxed about boundaries that matter rather more to a nurse getting changed for work or a woman seeking support after rape.
Rowling also shares an interesting observation from her Women’s Fund, which helps women defend their rights through the courts. She says applications involving private businesses have dropped markedly since the British Supreme Court’s ruling on biological sex, while publicly funded institutions remain much more resistant. Businesses have to consider whether fighting a case is worth spending their own money. Public bodies have the considerable advantage of spending ours.
What I appreciate is that Rowling has put her money behind her convictions, funding both legal support and Beira’s Place, a women-only sexual violence support service in Edinburgh. She could afford to disengage from the whole exhausting argument and live very comfortably indeed. Instead, she is helping women who cannot afford to walk away from it because the consequences turn up in their workplaces, their changing rooms, and the services they need. I love her. READ HER UPDATE.
I also wrote Substacks on the gang situation and the health crisis.
Ani O'Brien comes from a digital marketing background, she has been heavily involved in women's rights advocacy and is a founding council member of the Free Speech Union. This article was originally published on Ani's Substack Site and is published here with kind permission.
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