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Friday, October 2, 2026

David Farrar: Food Price Inflation


This graph below shows annual food price inflation for NZ and four other countries for each three year period (2015 – 2017, 2018 – 2020, 2021 – 2023, 2024 – Jun 26).


Click to view

In NZ food princes only increased 1.4% annually in the last term of the Key/English Government. Australia and US were slightly lower and UK and Canada quite a bit higher.

In Labour’s first term they increased 1.8%, which was higher than the UK and lower than Australia (just), US and Canada.

Labour’s second term saw annual food price increases of 7.3%. This was ,much higher than Australia, and quite bit more than Canada and US. UK was even higher.

In the 10 quarters since 2023, annual food price inflation has averaged 3%, marginally higher than the US at 2.9%, but below US, Australia and Canada.

This to me doesn’t suggest there is a specific problem in NZ with food prices.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

But it does suggest that there's perhaps a problem with Labour.

Anonymous said...

David did anything else happen over that period other than Labour. Wing in government? I’m curious about external or global factors. But I suppose if you knew of any of those, you would have included them in this article. We’re all good, then.

Barend Vlaardingerbroek said...

As is so often the case with this writer, the reader is left wondering what is really going on.
Astute readers will have noted that 2023 was a bad year for food price inflation for all 5 countries shown. I asked Google AI why this was. Apparently several influences that put upward pressure on food prices met and amplified one another. These factors were supply chain disruptions (hang-over effects from the COVID19 pandemic), the war in Ukraine driving up global costs for wheat, corn and cooking oils, extreme weather events, and
energy and fuel spikes.
So now we all know why food inflation wasn't just a NZ problem.

Anonymous said...

But NZ is a food supplier.Did they follow overseas trends and up the prices, independently from anything that happened here?.

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