The more bad news is that applying a 5% swing based on the poll, National loses nine electorates: Banks Peninsula, Henderson, West Coast–Tasman, Hutt South, Wairarapa, Wigram, East Cape, Kāpiti and Mt Roskill.
That leaves National with 36 electorates.
At 29% of the party vote, National is entitled to 35 MPs. If National wins back Tāmaki, the arithmetic gets even worse.
Not one National list MP would be elected.
I must add many qualifications.
Polls measure the party vote, not the electorate vote.
If the two were the same, ACT would not hold two electorates and the Greens three.
I have assumed a uniform 5% swing from the right to the left.
I have not allocated Opportunity’s support because we do not know where its votes are coming from.
At the last election, nearly 60% of ACT party voters gave their electorate vote to National. Nearly 44% of Green voters gave their electorate vote to Labour. What will they do this election?
The assumptions are considerable.
But the political lesson is clear.
On this poll, the centre-right loses.
National’s two-ticks-for-National strategy is not working.
Strategic voting is going to decide the election.
Other polling indicates Te Pāti Māori will win electorates and its electorate only strategy could be enough to tip the balance.
Christopher Luxon saying he would rather not be in coalition is like saying his plan is to win lotto.
Luxon needs a cup of tea with Seymour. And perhaps Peters too.
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
Not one National list MP would be elected.
I must add many qualifications.
Polls measure the party vote, not the electorate vote.
If the two were the same, ACT would not hold two electorates and the Greens three.
I have assumed a uniform 5% swing from the right to the left.
I have not allocated Opportunity’s support because we do not know where its votes are coming from.
At the last election, nearly 60% of ACT party voters gave their electorate vote to National. Nearly 44% of Green voters gave their electorate vote to Labour. What will they do this election?
The assumptions are considerable.
But the political lesson is clear.
On this poll, the centre-right loses.
National’s two-ticks-for-National strategy is not working.
Strategic voting is going to decide the election.
Other polling indicates Te Pāti Māori will win electorates and its electorate only strategy could be enough to tip the balance.
Christopher Luxon saying he would rather not be in coalition is like saying his plan is to win lotto.
Luxon needs a cup of tea with Seymour. And perhaps Peters too.
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
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