Ryan Bridge: My final election prediction, Qiulae's out

Nearly there.

Voting's already happening for Kiwis overseas.

Monday, we start in-country. Two weeks later it's all over and counting begins.

The result looks as tight as a fish's bum.

Here's my predictions:

Opportunity won't get 5% and the Coalition will be returned to power.

I want to be clear, this is not based off a scientific poll-by-poll or electorate probability calculator.

It's just a gut feeling of how voters will behave once they get into the voting booth.

And the fact not everyone who's polled actually turns out to vote, and not everyone who voted is polled.

If Opportunity does get over the line, of course, Luxon will talk to them, but he's got a strategy and he's sticking to it.

Campaigning politicians and CEOs do that. There's no point having strategy you abandon at the eleventh hour.

For me, the key part of last night's leader's debate was Qiulae Wong's vibe on the Coalition.

If they get in, they'd support with confidence and supply only.

ACT and New Zealand First's more extreme wish lists might need to be put on ice in return for their support, plus a few sweeteners on innovation and the digital economy thrown in for good measure.

Either way, there's still a long road ahead.

We'll have started buying Christmas trees before the Governor General is swearing in a new government.

Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.