The regime in Tehran believes that driving up the oil price to eye-watering levels will force President Trump to end the war.
Today’s media reports were dominated by speculation that this strategy is working. This is because Trump said yesterday that the war is “very complete, pretty much,” and that it will end “very soon”.
Yet later in the day he also said:
We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough…We could call it a tremendous success right now. Or we could go further. And we’re going to go further.
And he warned that the US would intensify its strikes if Iran continued to threaten oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf.
So is Trump winding the war down — or ramping it up? Maybe he was suggesting a speedy end to the war merely to get the oil price down again and fast. Who knows?
But if he ends the war prematurely, the regime survives. And if that happens because of the oil price, then America, Britain and the world will be held hostage by Iran repeatedly deploying that oil weapon to make itself invulnerable as it develops its nuclear weapons and creates a ballistic missile system so enormous that no-one will be able to prevent it from pursuing its infernal goal to destroy the west.
For those who hoped that the Iranian regime’s choice of a new Supreme Leader would signal a move towards pragmatism in Tehran and the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, the choice of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed in the war’s opening moments, has been an unwelcome setback.
The younger Khamenei (from whom nothing has been seen or heard) reportedly has views even more extreme than those of his father, who had designated him his successor. So this looks like a defiant signal of continued intransigence.
But the idea that a negotiated compromise with the regime is even possible, let alone desirable, is yet another example of western myopia and wishful thinking — a luxury not available to those at the sharp end of Tehran’s psychopathic aggression.
Melanie Phillips is a British journalist, broadcaster and author - you can follow her work on her website HERE
10 comments:
Short term pain for long term gain. Just imagine the burden on those having to make these decisions. For all the TDS sufferers out there, not many world leaders could carry this off. Co-ordination, planning, co-operation from all involved are required. The pushback is constant but I feel the resolve is there.
There seems to be a tacit assumption here that the ball is entirely in the US's and Israel's court - they're the ones calling all the shots. But that would not appear to be the case in reality. Reliable reports mainly from reputable Indian news sources such as the Times of India suggest that Israel is getting quite a pounding. The Iron Dome is being neutralised to an extent by saturating the attack area with drones that confuse the defending missiles or make them blow up harmlessly. Meanwhile, across the northern border, Hezbollah is giving as good as it gets and the IDF had better brace itself for heavy losses should a full-scale ground invasion occur.
Then there's that stranglehold Iran has on global oil flows over in a certain Strait..........
The US has underrated Iran. They thought it would be another Iraq. No chance.
Jeremy Bowen is a BBC reporter who has been at it for decades. Read his sober analysis of the current situation here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0znx4xrl9o
What’s the goal Janine? 150 dead Iranian schoolchildren, drones hitting hotels and data centres in neutral countries, oil tankers getting attacked, shipping lanes closed, westerners panic buying petrol…and so far all they have to show for it is a replacement for Khamenei whose name is also Khamenei.
It is playing out exactly as people guessed it would, perhaps even worse. Have you no grasp on history or geopolitics?
Those who want the war to end soon no matter what are inconsequential. The important part is how far the US side is prepared to go to finish it. The thought that Iran regime will run scared when they see the American military might is naive and dangerous. This regime has no choice but to fight to the end. Theirs, and this of the people of Iran, or whoever comes on their path. And sadly, they have levers that nobody quite knows how to neutralise. How may regimes have been changed without an inside resistance and without boots on ground?
Remember when Trump said “A vote for (Kamala) Harris is a vote to send your kids to war”? Those of us with a backbone remember.
I wonder what the 2000 troops heading to the Middle East think about that. Or their parents.
Anon @ 10.47am: 150 dead Iranian schoolchildren? Gasp! Call the whole thing off now!! This sort of collateral damage is unacceptable!!! Better to leave a despotic regime in place.
Anonymous 10.47. It depends whether you watch independent news or BBC, CNN.
The CNN Iran reporter was in filmed in front of a "green screen" so totally unbelievable for starters. The BBC are being sued for misrepresenting and doctoring Trump and Vances speeches. 10,000 to 40,000 Iranians protesting against the regime were killed in the uprising. The drones targeting neighbouring countries were Iranian. Some reports are saying the school bombing was also Iranian drones.
The regime is diabolical and I am unapologetically behind the wishes and resolve of 72 million Iranians who have endured 47 years under this corruption.
Ah, Janine, the ol’ don’t believe what your eyes and ears tell you. Even at the petrol pump. It’s a marvellous way to live, to not be challenged by evidence.
The last 3 Republican presidents have started wars in the Middle East. Nothing surprising happening, it is pretty awful though.
Hugh the goal (confirmed by US Republican spokesmen) is not regime change. So what are you on about?
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