As I write, it is just three days after the election. At this stage, it seems likely that there will again be a National-led coalition Government of some kind, possibly supported by Opportunity by means of a Confidence and Supply agreement.
The exact shape of that Government is by no means clear. Indeed, it is not even clear that it will be led by Christopher Luxon who, right to the very end, seemed sincere in his belief that the best way of returning a National-led Government to power was to give two ticks to National in order to reduce the risk of too many “numpties” from coalition parties sitting around the Cabinet table. At very least that was insulting to the parties which National is inevitably going to need to form a Government, but it also suggested that Mr Luxon could not count because it was clear from an early date that National was likely to hold most of the 44 electorates it won in 2023 but most unlikely to attract a commensurate party vote; hence the logic of “strategic voting”.
But assuming for the sake of this commentary that Mr Luxon continues as Prime Minister, one of his key tasks will be choosing the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Speaker, arguably the most important positions in the new Government.