Breaking Views Update: Week of 27.9.26

Friday October 2, 2026 

News:
New poll of Māori voters shows strategic voting may be sinking in
A new poll suggests the call for strategic voting from Te Pāti Māori may be working, for about half of its supporters.

Support for the Green Party from voters on the Māori roll has surged, according to a new poll.

Clive Bibby: The Nation Building Conundrum

I make no claims to being even a knowledgeable local historian and certainly not a commentator in the same league as Professor Paul Moon who is renowned for his abilities as a fact checker at a time when our national sovereignty is under threat from radical, separatist academics who have a passion for making things up.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Is it worthwhile for Labour to try and regulate hidden fees?

Now, I don't know that Labour's plan to stop businesses charging hidden fees is a game changer, or even necessarily something worth campaigning on during an election. But I think it might be a good idea.

Labour's plan is basically to ban junk add-ons like paint protection insurance, stop the hard sell of extended warranties like the ones you're offered when you buy a new pair of AirPods, require all mandatory fees, such as ticketing charges, to be included in the upfront price and make subscriptions and gym memberships easy to cancel.

Ligin Joseph: How can the same El Niño cause drought in one part of the world and floods in another?

The Pacific Ocean is warming unusually quickly, and this year’s El Niño has already surpassed previous records. Forecasters expect it to strengthen even further before approaching its usual peak around December.

El Niño, the warm phase of a natural fluctuation in the Earth’s climate system, can reshape weather thousands of miles away, bringing drought to some regions while increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others. To understand why, you need to follow what happens to the Pacific’s warm water – and the air above it.

Dennis Wesselbaum: Low productivity is NZ’s economic elephant in the room. Election pledges mostly avoid it

Yesterday’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update from the Treasury has given political parties their clearest picture yet of the economy they could inherit after November’s election.

The near-term fiscal outlook is brighter than expected. Treasury now forecasts a $6.8 billion deficit in 2026-27 – down from the $11.4 billion predicted at the May Budget – while higher tax revenue is expected to reduce government borrowing by $15 billion over the next four years.

Ryan Bridge: We're not addressing the core issues of our health system

Health is one of those areas you can churn through cash.

It's expensive to visit your GP, but also expensive to fund.

The amount taxpayers spend on health has one up 100% over the past decade.

It was around 15 billion in 20216. It's now up over 30.

Dr Eric Crampton: Breaking up the supermarkets and blowing up due process

The Commerce Act forbids anticompetitive conduct. There are established processes for proving that commercial conduct is unlawful, with penalties and remedies that follow. Due process matters. And unlawful behaviour has consequences.

In the midst of an election campaign, National has promised to break up one of the country’s larger grocers, Foodstuffs, without any finding of relevant unlawful conduct. A break-up instead would largely depend on whether the Commerce Commission agrees with a cost-benefit assessment.

Simon O'Connor: Apparently Fingernails Are Colonialist

An absurd BBC article that points to a much larger cultural problem.

Ladies (and I suppose some men), be aware: choosing not to paint your nails is now considered a sign of white supremacy. Who knew!

According to a BBC article, the beauty journalist argues that the decision to not paint one’s nail is deeply problematic. To quote her, “the trend really promotes blankness and this kind of sameness and erasure of culture and identity that is so important to black and brown communities. They are often called elegant or tasteful, and these are often usually euphemisms that perpetuate white supremacist standards of beauty.”

Kerre Woodham: Is school zoning archaic?

I really like the idea of David Seymour's to turn the old teachers' training college in Epsom into a new co-ed public school. I like even more the idea that it not be zoned. In David Seymour's ideal world, the lovely old 37 acre site that is owned by the University of Auckland and currently lies empty would be jointly operated by two of the top state schools in the country, Auckland Grammar and Epsom Girls Grammar. They're both bursting at the seams with the number of students wanting entry through their gates.

Bob Edlin: Te Tai Tonga titillates the Nats on coalition options – but not for long

The Nats would – or should – have been troubling over their prospects of forming another coalition government after polling from 1News-Verian showed a Green surge and the left bloc able to win government.

That could be averted (on the basis of the poll results) only if National was willing to work with the Opportunity Party – and National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled them out of considerations.

Then came news of another possibility…

David Farrar: Food Price Inflation

This graph below shows annual food price inflation for NZ and four other countries for each three year period (2015 – 2017, 2018 – 2020, 2021 – 2023, 2024 – Jun 26).

Mike's Minute: Chris Hipkins has been found out

Chris Hipkins has been exposed for the fraud he is.

Having made far too much of the PREFU and all the fiscal magic it would contain, he cornered himself.

He snookered himself.

Thursday October 1, 2026 

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Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: We know Chlöe Swarbrick's not getting the finance portfolio, right?

Well, the Chlöe-for-Finance-Minister debate has gone up a level. She has been asked what her qualifications are. David Seymour is making fun of the idea, I think for good reason. And Chlöe herself has hit back, specifically at Nicola Willis, because there was a poll that showed a touch more people actually trust Chlöe on the economy than Nicola. Touché from Chlöe.

Chris Trotter: Election 2026 - when the tail is growing large enough to wag the ideological dog

From the perspective of New Zealand’s two largest parties, the first MMP election in 1996 was also the worst.

Between them, National and Labour accounted for just 62.06% of the popular vote. Pundits opined that this historically low two-party share reflected in more-or-less equal measure the novelty of the new electoral system and a substantial minority of the electorate’s emphatic rejection of politics as usual.

Ani O'Brien: Should the centre-right split their vote?

Is the overhang a lifeline for the centre-right?

I have thought long and hard about writing this. I wrote a kind of explainer about 6 weeks ago, but I wanted to be sure that I was sharing the best information before really throwing my support behind the strategy. And, to be honest, I have felt really sad for National and the situation they find themselves in. Although, of course, much of it is self-inflicted. I have a great deal of respect for many in the party and I know that they are feeling wounded by the increasing push for strategic voting.

Pee Kay: It has now ballooned out to a massive $1.093 billion!

Welcome to episode 5 of 2026 Election Issues in a Nutshell.
$1.093 billion!

Below is another episode broadcast by The Anglo Saxon.

In this episode (below) the Anglo Saxon focusses on the Maori Health Authority and Maori Health providers, highlighting the extreme costs to the taxpayer.

Roger Partridge: The House Price Story Almost Everyone Missed

This month’s big housing story was not the Reserve Bank’s rate rise, whatever the media coverage suggested. Mortgage rate rises, the effect on house prices, whether the spring market will stall – all of it was reported, correctly, as housing news.

But the bigger housing story occurred last week, when Parliament agreed to something no country has previously tried. As my colleague Oliver Hartwich explained earlier this month, Chris Bishop’s new Planning and Natural Environment Acts, replacing the Resource Management Act, do not merely name housing affordability as a goal. Under the new laws councils will have a duty to keep enough land available that its price stops carrying a scarcity premium. An independent umpire will judge whether they have.

Simon O'Connor: Scapegoats at the Checkout

What the political rush to punish supermarkets reveals about modern campaigning.

This election year’s scapegoat is clear – supermarkets. Every election has some form of scapegoat or ‘baddie’ to blame. This year it turns out to be the mums and dads running the likes of New World or Four Square while the previous election in 2023, it was landlords and property owners, and before that it was the mad covid years.

Kerre Woodham: Strategic voting – is it really a clever decision?

There's an old saying, "you're so sharp you could cut yourself". Similar to "you're too clever for your own good", meaning sometimes a person tries to be too tricky or clever, which leads them to make a simple task messy or fail completely. And that is the warning being given by the main parties to voters who are trying to rig the system.