NZCPR Newsletter: The End of Climate Extremism

Breaking News: The extreme climate scenario, used by the expert United Nations  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to forecast catastrophic climate change has been withdrawn. 

The international body responsible for IPCC modelling has now officially declared the extreme RCP8.5 scenario is implausible.

This is the doomsday scenario of a world almost totally dependent on coal, with catastrophic warming of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100, and sea-levels rising well over one metre, that was adopted by our Ministry for the Environment as “business-as-usual” and applied by government agencies and local councils across the country.  

The significance of this IPCC decision cannot be over-stated. 

Ian Bradford: The Planetary Cycles That Affect Our Climate and Weather

A number of articles have mentioned that climate change and weather have always occurred right back in geological time. All occurring long before the existence of humans. For example, how many know that around 232-234 million years ago it rained continuously for between 1 million and 2 million years?

Steven Gaskell: Public Service Expansion

Labour’s expansion of the public service between 2017 and 2023 saw the biggest staffing growth concentrated in a relatively small number of departments and administrative functions. According to figures from New Zealand’s Public Service Commission and reporting compiled from departmental data, the biggest increases came from:

Breaking Views Update: Week of 17.5.26

Saturday May 23, 2026 

News:
Te reo Māori advocate Vincent Olsen-Reeder criticises govt branding changes
A Māori language advocate says the government's move to prioritise English over te reo Māori in official branding sends a damaging message about the status of te reo in Aotearoa and risks undermining ongoing reo revitalisation efforts.

Earlier this week, the government updated its official branding to give greater prominence to English over te reo Māori, following a directive from new Public Service Minister Paul Goldsmith.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: New Zealand's corruption problem is growing rapidly

For anyone still labouring under the impression that New Zealand is an innocent little place like it was 50 years ago, those prison busts should absolutely shatter that delusion.

What happened was the single biggest bust in our prison system: 20 people arrested and charged across three different prisons - Mount Eden, Spring Hill and Auckland South.

Mike's Minute: Aussie Labor have shown NZ Labour what not to do

Another lesson for our Labour Party if they want to ponder it.

Australia’s Labor have blown their Budget.

It's hard to overstate the anger and pushback on their tax changes made now well over a week ago.

Gary Judd KC: Myth, Memory and the BNZ

Winston should be ashamed

In his column in The Telegraph published on 19 May, “Deluded Labour will never let go of its EU fantasy,” Tom Harris said, “Such is how myths are made in modern Britain. Europhilia is similar to Thatcherphobia – it’s less about actual policies and empirical evidence than about feelings, and the less you remember about it, the stronger you feel.”

I made a note of it because the subordination of historical fact to feelings is so relevant to contemporary New Zealand and Tom Harris’ expression neatly captures the way passage of time and appeal to emotion may result in apparently serious pronouncements being evidence of sheer lunacy.

Such was Winston Peter’s solemn pledge that New Zealand First policy would include buying back the BNZ.

Rodney Hide: China Rising, America Falling? The Delusion Persists in Wellington

In Wellington salons and certain Auckland boardrooms, the conventional wisdom is settled: China is the unstoppable rising power, the United States is in terminal decline, and New Zealand had better hedge accordingly. Smart diplomats, we are told, accommodate Beijing while quietly distancing ourselves from a fading superpower.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Bob Edlin: Count the number of Finnish public servants.....

Count the number of Finnish public servants to see what happens when you trim govt department numbers

Paul Goldsmith, Minister for the Public Service and Digitising Government, was raring to go when asked what action the Government was taking to improve services and deliver better value for money in the public service.

The patsy question was lobbed by National MP David MacLeod.

Insights From Social Media: Why The Word Aotearoa Should Be Discarded

Alfred Johns writes > Fellow New Zealanders,

I want to say about something far greater than politics. I speak about identity, history, truth, and the name of our nation — the name by which the world has known us for generations: that is “New Zealand”.

Names matter.

John MacDonald: Politicians have no idea what's important to us

Sometimes it feels like an easy thing to say that politicians have no idea what really matters to us. What’s important to us - the people who put them in their positions of power.

Today, it may be the easiest it’s ever been to say that sort of thing.

Let’s start with Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Who, I think, said one of the most arrogant things I’ve heard any politician say.

Peter Dunne: Labour's Policy Vacuum

It is often said that Oppositions never win elections because governments lose them. In other words, if a government is unpopular enough it will lose an election, regardless of the calibre of the Opposition.

That was certainly the case in 2023 when Labour was tossed out of office. The public mood then was far more that people had had enough of Labour and were keen to get rid of it, rather than a positive feeling for National. And as National's support has waned in recent months, and Labour's increased, it was beginning to look as though history might be set to repeat itself at this November's election. However, that may be about to change.

David Farrar: Media missed the big story on donations

The annual donations returns were recently published, and the media focused on how CR parties had more than CL parties. They failed to look at the trend,

In the table below I compare 2025 donations to 2022, as like vs like. Both are mid years in the three year cycle.

Friday May 22, 2026 

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Ryan Bridge: The AI takeover isn't coming, it's here

The AI and robot takeover isn't coming, it's here. Well, sort of.

A bunch of data's come out on this over the past few days.

Seek says job ads mentioning AI have doubled in the past year, up 4.1% from March to April.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: AI is just a distraction in the public service discussion

I’ve got to tell you something – I’m embarrassed.

Watching this public debate about how many public servant jobs are going to be cut in order to make way for AI is just embarrassing.

Lindsay Mitchell: Is Whanau Ora lifting student attendance?

I was asked the following question via Family First: "How is the Whānau Ora network developing and what are its prospects. In particular, is it helping school attendance effectively for Maori and Pacific island pupils?"

Whānau Ora was introduced in 2010 resulting from the 2008 Confidence and Supply Agreement between the National Government and the Māori Party, the underlying principle being, it's not individuals who need access to services, but whānau. It is very much a 'by Maori, for Maori' approach.

Mike's Minute: So yes, Chris Hipkins does think you're stupid

I asked yesterday whether Chris Hipkins thought we were stupid.

And as luck would have it, he answered our question – yes, he does.

First you have the Future Fund, a cornerstone policy, revelation that they aren't telling us who's money goes in and what sort of job creation they are expecting because they got bogged down in the Treaty issues, so we will need to wait until after the election.

Elliot Ikilei: Is this a power company or a cultural ministry?

Have you seen this?

Meridian’s job advertisement [below] is seriously revealing, and not for the reasons the company probably intended.

DTNZ: Arctic sea ice levels remain significantly above 2012 record low

New figures on Arctic sea ice have reignited debate over climate projections after the 2025 summer minimum measured 4.6 million square kilometres — around 35 per cent higher than the record low of 3.4 million square kilometres recorded in 2012.

David Harvey: The Culture of Complaint

An Institutional Problem

I have a book on my shelf entitled “Culture of Complaint” by Robert Hughes. I purchased it in September 1993 shortly after it was published.

It was an interesting book because although it argued primarily about problems in the United States of America, the issues Hughes describes resonate today. The book was prescient in that respect.

Robert Hughes was an Australian-born art critic, writer and producer of television documentaries. He was art editor for Time magazine and is known to television audiences for his TV series on modern art entitled “The Shock of the New” which was brilliant.

Simon O'Connor: Be prepared

The fraying of the international rules-based order and various conflicts - either happening now or possible in the future - should see New Zealand preparing now. There are no excuses for inaction.

During a recent visit by the US President to Beijing, President Xi of China made it clear that Taiwan must become part of China. Xi has frequently talked of Taiwan as part of China, and that it will eventually be reunited including by military force if necessary.

Andrew Dickens: Is the Government counting its chickens before they hatch?

Let's start with the big story of the day: the Finance Minister yesterday unveiling a major plan to shrink the public service. It's putting thousands of jobs on the line, but it is booking, potentially, billion-dollar savings into this year's Budget. So the interesting thing about her announcement —there were precursors to this, so this is stuff we knew, but it's all brought it into focus— is the pure numbers that we're talking about.

Bob Edlin: What state services can learn from Fonterra......

What state services can learn from Fonterra: bigger isn’t always better and merging might not make us better off

Streamlining is one thing. Merging is another.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis drew attention to this when discussing the Government’s public-sector policy objectives yesterday:

David Farrar: Winding back Treaty references

Paul Goldsmith announced:

The Government has agreed to amend 19 pieces of legislation to ensure references to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi are clear and consistent, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says.

“Over the last 30 or 40 years, Parliament has made all sorts of references to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. Sometimes it’s ‘honour’, or ‘have regard to’, or ‘give effect to’, or ‘take into account’. We need to create some consistency here, in the interests of increasing certainty and supporting compliance. A core foundation of our success as a nation is predictability in the law. …

Thursday May 21, 2026 

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Parmjeet Parmar: No expiry date for serious crime

New Zealand’s promise to new arrivals is straightforward: contribute, obey our laws, and you can build a wonderful life here. But that promise carries an equally clear expectation – the privilege of residency cannot be abused. For those who are not citizens, this is a social contract, and it must be upheld.

Clive Bibby: A bubble that has burst - will politicians ever learn?

One of the hallmarks of the original “Welfare State” concept was its promise of State funded welfare that would meet the basic needs of every citizen irrespective of race, political affiliations or position on the social ladder. It would be available to all.

Ani O'Brien: The Public Service isn’t a six-figure welfare scheme

Some super quick thoughts on the public service reforms

The reaction to Nicola Willis’ pre-Budget speech today went full throttle before she had even delivered it. The proposals were not especially radical, but you would not know this if you interacted with any media today. It was astounding how quickly large sections of New Zealand’s political and media class moved to attack the measures intended to save money and make our government more efficient. The arguments for consolidating our public service and tightening our belts were shut down before they could even properly be debated.

JC: How to Win Big Revealed in Poll

Immediately after the Australian budget Roy Morgan ran a snap poll across 2,348 voters Australia-wide to see where the parties sat in terms of popularity. The poll revealed some staggering numbers. The reasons were listed in detail and many of them could apply equally to the political situation in this country. If National, in particular, want to win big they should take heed of the reasons given for the increased support shown for Pauline Hanson's nationalist party One Nation.

David Farrar: Labour to release key policy after the election!!!

The Herald reports:

Labour has admitted key details about its Future Fund, including the cost to the Crown and which state assets will be rolled into it, will not be released until after voters have gone to the polls.

On Tuesday, Labour’s finance spokeswoman Barbara Edmonds admitted the party doesn’t itself know which public assets will go in the fund, and won’t know until it gets advice from officials after the election.

Richard Prebble: AI Could Make Big Government Even Bigger

On a flight to Wellington the passenger beside me introduced himself.

“I’m from IBM. We are developing for Railways a world-leading wages management system.”

All my alarm bells went off.

Mike's Minute: Labour's lack of detail show they've learned nothing

So let me get this right, just so we know where we’re at.

The Labour Party —who, I'm assuming, still want to be taken seriously this election— have had a major issue up to this point.

They have no policies.

Dr James Allan: No, Trump Hasn’t “Undermined the Rule of Law”

In two recent articles in the pages of Quadrant (March 2026 issue ‘The Temptations of Unfreedom Revisited’ and May 2026 issue ‘Nasty, Brutish and Short-Sighted’), Oliver Hartwich has spent considerable time attacking US President Donald Trump. In the first of these, Hartwich alleged that Trump has systematically violated the rule of law. And that he has undermined the institutional integrity of the courts, law enforcement and the civil service. And that he has weaponised the Justice Department against his political foes. The listed vices go on.

Bob Edlin: City councils: transparency about a suspension in Dunedin but mystery about a resignation in Wellington

RNZ left little room for wondering about Dunedin city councillor Benedict Wong’s suspension from all committees and subcommittees for nine months “because of concerns about his behaviour”.

Wong faced a code of conduct complaint after revealing details about a potential hotel development at Forsyth Barr Stadium to reporters in April.

David Farrar: Government to trim 8,700 public servants

Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith have announced the following:

• A target to return the ratio of public servants to the population of 1.0%, meaning a target of 55,000 by 2029

• A sinking lid on operating budgets for agencies that will save $2.4 billion with greater use of AI

• A reduction in the number of core department and ministries from 39 (Australia has 16)

Wednesday May 20, 2026 

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Ryan Bridge: The public service cuts didn't come out of nowhere

We got the inevitable Grinch headlines from the media yesterday, powered by union panic.

The public service knew this was coming. Or should have. Judith Collins, Nicola Willis and Sir Brian Roche have been talking about this since they all got into office.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Let's make a start on unwinding years of public sector bloat

As you’d expect, I’m a huge fan of Nicola Willis’ plan to cut down the size of the public sector.

This is the second issue I’ve been harping on about to her. The other one was, obviously, the fees-free year for university students. So I’m stoked that, on this show, we’re two from two in terms of agitating for cutting back on wasteful public spending.

Mike's Minute: Here's what the 2026 Election is about

I'm 100% convinced this election is about the economy.

Do people blame the Government in any way for the economic fallout from war?

Does the economic grind make you look to other political answers?

Graham Adams: Hipkins drags out Phoney War with Coalition

After Britain declared war on Germany in September 1939 there was an eight-month period in which there were a few brief skirmishes but very little significant fighting on land. The standoff in Western Europe was dubbed the “Phoney War”, the “Bore War”, and the “sitzkrieg” (“the sitting war” — in contrast to the blitzkrieg inflicted on Poland).

Military action was mainly carried out at sea until Hitler’s lightning invasion of Norway in April 1940 sparked serious hostilities.

Richard Prebble: At last, a serious speech from the Prime Minister

Christopher Luxon gave last week his most substantive speech as Prime Minister. Apparently, he wrote it himself.

Prime Ministers are usually too busy to write their own speeches. Their speeches are stitched together by advisers and shaped by polling and focus groups.

Luxon attempted something much harder. He set out a worldview and an agenda for the country.

John McLean: Parliament Passing Legislation Is.....Undemocratic!?

Whacky reactions to proposed legislation extinguishing crazy climate Court cases

On Tuesday 12 May, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith announced a legislative reform to stop New Zealand Courts forcing “greenhouse gas”-producing businesses to compensate New Zealanders for damage from bad weather. The yet-to-be-drafted legislation will amend New Zealand’s Climate Change Response Act 2002.

The legislation will have the particular effect of extinguishing current Court action by a race hustler with a boring name. I’ve covered Mike Smith’s judicial machinations in a previous Substack.

Gary Judd KC: Submission to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee on the New Zealand....

Submission to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee on the New Zealand - India Free Trade Agreement

Voters are entitled to be angry

Submissions on the FTA closed at midnight last night. In the nick of time, I lodged a submission which largely follows The Sting in the India Trade Deal. It also added this:

Ashley Church: Europe’s de facto referendum on Israel

Why Eurovision matters right now

For nearly three years now, a moral, cultural and political battle about Israel has been raging across the West.

On one side are those who still remember the lessons of history and who recognise the ancient hatred of the Jewish people, even when they see it wearing new clothes.

On the other side are those who have chosen to excuse, minimise, rationalise or even celebrate evil, so long as that evil is directed at Israel.

Andrew Dickens: Parents are responsible for avoiding 'credit crunching'

The government has confirmed major changes to New Zealand’s secondary school qualification system, officially replacing NCEA with a new subject-based model.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Education Minister Erica Stanford announced the shift in Orewa, saying the current NCEA system is too complex and doesn’t clearly show how well students have mastered their subjects.

Bob Edlin: Constitutional change affects funding of Parliament....

Constitutional change affects funding of Parliament – and reminds us of the Ombudsman’s rebalancing

RNZ has drawn attention to a procedural motion in Parliament last week which “quietly marked one of the more significant constitutional changes of recent years”.

It dealt with the issue of how Parliament is funded.

The Notice of Motion from Leader of the House Louise Upston concerning the estimates (budgets) for the three officers of Parliament and the Parliamentary agencies lasted five minutes on Wednesday evening and flew under most people’s radars.

David Farrar: The failure of fees free

Fees free tertiary education a central policy for Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins. They promised in 2017, that it would boost tertiary participation, especially for those from poorer families, who they said were put off by high fees.

The policy bombed almost straight away. We know this because Labour never implemented the full policy. They kept it at first year only, because even they worked out it was a hugely expensive policy that simply transferred money from all taxpayers to students from wealthy families (who would go on to earn $2 million more than those who didn’t get a degree).

Tuesday May 19, 2026 

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Michael Laws: The Maori Queen Has “historic Anger”

The Maori Queen has “historic anger” - Michael Laws says that’s holding Maori back.

Click to view

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: What problems will buying back BNZ solve?

Here’s a question for you: if you really like Winston Peters’ idea of buying back the BNZ - why? What problem do you think will be solved by buying it back?

Do you think the banks are ripping you off because they’re owned by Australians, and that if only one of them were owned by us again, they wouldn’t?

Ryan Bridge: A clean up of cabinet is overdue

In February last year I wrote a piece for the Herald about government department and Ministerial overload.

It was partly informed by observation and partly by New Zealand Initiative paper on the subject.

Mike's Minute: Do the unions have anything positive to say about education?

Can anyone tell me why literally everything that is ever done in the education space is rejected, hated and railed against by the unions?

Have the education unions ever not asked for more money, more resources or more non-contact time, while at the same time telling you everything in the classroom is crap?

DTNZ: Peters unveils KiwiSaver-from-birth scheme and BNZ buyback plan

NZ First leader Winston Peters has announced a pair of major economic policies, including compulsory KiwiSaver enrolment at birth with a $1000 Crown contribution and a proposal to buy back the Bank of New Zealand from Australian ownership.

Speaking at a campaign event in West Auckland today Peters said every New Zealand citizen would automatically become a KiwiSaver member at birth under what he called the “KiwiSaver Generation” policy.

Philip Crump: CENSORED

How the establishment tried to kill a story and why it didn't work


On October 15, 2020, three weeks before the US presidential election, the New York Post broke a bombshell story detailing lurid allegations of drugs, prostitution and influence peddling by Hunter Biden, the troubled son of Democrat nominee Joe Biden. For a moment it threatened to be the determining factor in a knife-edge race between President Donald J. Trump and his Democrat challenger. But the broadcast and print media ignored the story. The Post’s Twitter account was locked, and Facebook’s algorithms prevented the story from spreading across its platform.