Twenty-eight point four percent in the polling is a significant problem for National. It seems to me they’ve got four options for how to deal with this in an election year:
1) Continue with Chris Luxon
2) Switch to Chris Bishop
3) Switch to Erica Stanford
4) Or, switch to Mark Mitchell.
I think sticking with Chris Luxon is a credible option simply because changing a sitting Prime Minister eight months out from an election is an incredibly risky thing to do. It signals instability. But then again, a leader who can’t articulate a simple foreign policy position on whether New Zealand supports bombing Iran doesn’t really look like stability, does he? It knocks confidence in the leader and his lack of popularity is now clearly dragging National down in the polls. He is a drag on the party.
Chris Bishop is good in media interviews. He’s not going to make the same basic mistakes Chris Luxon does. He’s got a very good political radar as well. He’s also, I think, lefty enough—or liberal enough—that he could probably be in the Labour Party if he wanted to, so he has appeal across the political spectrum.
But unfortunately for him, he is a street fighter, and everyone can see that he’s a street fighter, and that makes it a bit harder for your mum to vote for him, if you know what I mean. He also shot his chance, frankly, with caucus after trying to roll Luxon last year, so they’re not going to support him.
Erica Stanford is really well liked publicly so she has some appeal and she’s from Auckland, which counts for a lot. She is strong in her portfolios—excellent in education, very good in interviews. She’s liberal enough to appeal to Labour and left-leaning voters.
But she’s untested on everything a Prime Minister needs to know. She’s great in interviews on subjects she knows, but have you ever heard her interviewed on a subject she doesn’t know? She also has an instinct to fight dirty, which I don’t think is quite as appealing in a female politician, and she might burn herself out with anxiety and micromanaging.
Mark Mitchell has the cuddly dad appeal. That is by far his biggest asset. He’s a nice guy—you can see it, you like him, he’s likeable. He’s also sure of his own mind, which counts for a lot when you think about how Luxon’s indecisiveness has hurt him.
The problem for Mark Mitchell is that while he’s great in his portfolios, has he really been tested in other areas? Is he across all the detail a Prime Minister needs?
Now, if you said to me, “I’m in the National Party caucus and I have to put my money on what’s going to work”—and it is a wild guess, because no one knows—I would say a combo of Erica Stanford and Mark Mitchell is probably the way to go: one as leader, one as deputy.
But bold call. Whether I would pull the trigger in an election year, I’m not sure. It’s a bold move to switch leaders this close to voting and it would take Luxon giving himself up for that to happen because they are not going to roll him. They want an orderly handover.
And at the moment, as you heard from him, there is no sign that he is in that head space just yet.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show. This article was sourced from Newstalk ZB.
11 comments:
The New Zealand voters kicked the previous political vandals for touch and gave Luxon a landslide victory. The adults in the country breathed a sigh of relief, however, as time went by the realisation dawned that Luxon was anything but a change maker but a steady as she goes defender of the previous regime’s destructive policies. We have been duped and the public is angry risking a return of the very same idiots that were sacked at the last election.
Why can't national get someone like Paul Henry as leader? Paul was an absolute hit at an Act party conference about a year ago. He said exactly what most common sense kiwis believe and the left would absolutely detest him. He would know how to put the left nz media in their place. Nzers would have a clear choice. If we don't get someone like that, then the unthinkable could happen when kiwis wake up after the election with Rawiri Waititi as deputy prime minister demanding all colonisers register their homes on the stolen land register
Rob at 7.14. Wouldn't these voters give their vote to Winston or Seymour instread though? They have both gone down in the polls also. Surely a voter who thinks Luxon is too left would not give their vote to someone like hipkins, knowing that he will likely team up with greens and maori?
Both Bishop and Stanford have shown an arrogant tendency to denigrate voters who disagree and/or complain. There’s a highly unattractive nastiness that surfaces in both of them - that Hillary Clintonesque “deplorables” or Michael Woods’ “river of filth” type vibe. Disagree and you’re dirt.
Anonymous 9.15 am. Yes I agree that a large block of traditional National voters will move to Act and NZ First. However, Luxon’s timidity, resembling, in my opinion, his British counterpart’s performance, has damaged public respect that could potentially turn the next election into a volatile free for all.
I agree rob but the other thing that disturbs me is why so many kiwis want hipkins and the left again? Are they mad? It will be even worse than jacinda's regime as he will join with the greens and maori party who can't stand the west! I think hipkins will offer free stuff that he can't deliver to get elected also
There are some months to run yet. Then there is the after match, if there is one. Which way will Winston jump? With the decline of NZ over the long term under National and Labour, there is little hope for meaningful change either way. While there have been some positives in one or two areas this term, in the main it is more of the same trends. All this talk re the leader/PM is a distraction. The real long-term problem and issues are galvanised in the National Party itself. They are unable to shift their thinking and refuse to take responsibility for their failings. As for the continued support of the left mentioned, well both National and Labour have designed the voter base that way over the long term through their actions and the Nations institutions. We don’t really have a free-thinking democracy, more an engineered compliant population. #317 Leighton Smith podcast at the end is an article that further explores the nature and state of affairs in NZ. We will continue the same dysfunctional cycles because there is no will, of any critical mass, to put a stop to the corrupted nature NZ has lapsed into.
Luxon talking with Heather d P-A , was banging on about (pretending, probably) that the only issue bothering NZers is the economy.
How wrong could he be ?
Thats obvious with the self exporting Kiwis - they are not running away from money issues, but from the coup by belligerent Maori destroying our democracy.
Just watch the exodus if / when the situation becomes more brown dominated.
The 2026 NZ Deputy Leader David Seymour is superior to any of the National MP's discussed . It would not be unreasonable for Mr Luxon to be incapacitated by a possible health diagnosis next month or earlier if needed.
The Deputy Leader would step in as caretaker PM. David Seymour is pragmatic ,eloquent , courageous and charismatic.
Yes, David Seymour could lead NZ through to the 2026 election without upheaval and scurrilous media outrage . Business and commerce would appreciate sensible dialogue and the PM chosen after the election would be a natural transition.
The more conspiracy theory leaning person would conclude from that interview, that he is a progressive liberal left asset, sent to do a job to ensure the National led government is discredited. It's hard to believe someone of Luxons ilk is so utterly tone deaf. And National have a secret international polling company employed and it's so different? Oh. My. God.
But back to reality. Write National off and vote for NZF or ACT. If the Nats are a far less influential bit players but the horror story that would be a Labour led is kept out then fine by me. Who cares what National do or don't do with him.
And doesn't this mirror what has happened in the UK? A centre right party loses its' way and drifts. The centre left gets taken over by student politicians who don't understand how an economy works and who believe tax is the answer to everything. Government is increasingly run by the public service with consumption of increasing amounts of taxpayer money but no measurable positive outcomes. There is no electoral response until things get really, really bad and then the somnolent taxpayer class wakes up and gets very, very angry. It's coming to a polling booth near you but perhaps not just yet.
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