I don't know if the people pushing this strategy realise how confusing it is for a lot of people, particularly those who don't engage with politics all that often. These are the low-interest voters who tune in only when an election rolls around.
I tried to explain the vote-splitting strategy to someone in my family twice and I could tell that even after two explanations, they still didn't really understand how it worked. That suspicion was confirmed when they called me again and asked me to explain it one more time because they were on their way to the voting booth and wanted to try to execute the strategy.
Now, add to that the fact that voters are hearing two different messages from elders on the right. Don Brash is telling them to split their vote. John Key is telling them not to split their vote. Then Don Brash is saying, "Please split your vote, except if you're in Epsom or Tamaki. Then please don't split your vote."
I think this confusion really raises the risk that the strategy could go badly wrong because, if voters don't understand what they're doing, what happens if they invert their vote in the booth? What happens if they accidentally give their party vote to National and their electorate vote to New Zealand First or ACT, completely defeating the thing they're trying to do?
And what if only half the voters do it and half don't? National's party vote collapses but its electorate vote also collapses and it comes out not supersized at all but quite the opposite.
Don Brash is confident, though, that voters can pull this off. He says National is denigrating the intelligence of right-wing voters. And maybe he's right. We've had MMP for 30 years now. Electorate after electorate, from Wellington Central to Coromandel to Epsom, has shown that voters do know how to split their vote.
But this is vote-splitting on steroids across the whole country and it's a big enough gamble for National to be fairly nervous about the coming days.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and radio broadcaster who hosts Newstalk ZB's weekday Drive-Time Show – where this article was sourced.
11 comments:
No confusion Heather. You are the only one confused. Our country’s future is at an election crossroad where our destiny will become apparent shortly. A bad outcome will bring unfettered joy to our corrupt MSM.
Don Brash is spot on...Key & Luxon ARE insulting peoples intelligence.
Without wishing to sound arrogant, vote splitting is a rudimentary concept to understand...how CAN it confuse you?🙄🙄.
My personal hope is that Bishop retains his seat(with help of vote splitting), and ASAP post election Nats revisit the leadership issue!
The only thing that can go badly wrong is for Nat supporters to party vote Nat. That’s a wasted vote as there’s little chance of their party vote rising enough to match their electorate seat tally. Luxon’s whining about it is just off-putting and making this worse.
Rob, Heather is not confused, and I do not think her husband is. Luxon will not be PM in 6 months time.
You need a large BLOCK of people vote splitting to make an impact. But it's only you in the booth...
There is every chance Luxon will be finished as leader of the National Party by late on election night.
A
There is every chance Luxon will be finished by late on election night, not 6 months later.
With vote splitting by National supporters there is a good chance of the coalition being re-elected. Without it that chance is marginal at best.
And Luxon is willing to take that gambol to see a few more of his list mates re-elected, a few more National Party Cabinet Ministers.
What he may well see is the Maori Party sitting round the next cabinet table , the mongrel mob having a direct line to them.
Luxon just has no right to risk the countries future this way.
Won't Luxon feel stupid then !
The only confused are one who have not split their vote previously.
If there is one million plus National party votes counted and lost at the final 2026 election result then, unfortunately Key and Luxon were listened to .
My money is on a decent win for the Coalition .
Simple - Only - Party Vote ACT or NZFirst
The only confusion I have over vote-splitting is why columnists keep telling me I'm confused about vote-splitting.
If "there is confusion", amid which group of our Society is it happening?
The Younger age - unless they have a 'change of heart' could swing toward either Labour or National - what might influence that is parents.
Among this age range, sadly, is the moronic group who think it will 'be neat' to Vote Greens or possibly Opportunity, if the latter it will the photographic appeal of Quilae Wong.
I would call it " the Ardern affect".
The Adult - years
- 20's to mid 40's mor likely to go to Labour, if they belong to a Union, will be "instructed" what to do.
- 60's plus this is the domain of Winston Peters and he knows it
As for ACT, well the "Polls" tell us one thing - but what age range has been targeted to gain that data?
ACT will certainly pick up many votes, more from National, the reason being -
- they have 'failed' ? across 3 years
- that people believe they 'have bent a knee to Maoridom', rather than contain the major push by Maori to gain a leverage on/over this Country.
You only have to read comments here and on YouTube under posted NZ video content, which highlights that belief.
If you think we have problems just look at America at the moment.
I agree with Heather! This week I’ve had several people (all adults between 50-70 years of age) ask me how exactly the vote splitting is supposed to work and how to do it properly. Three asked just yesterday. These people all want the coalition returned but with National’s wings clipped by stronger representation by ACT and NZFirst. (Most say they used to vote Labour/Green.) But they are genuinely confused about whether achieving this requires an electorate or a party vote for National or for a coalition partner. There’s simply too much info floating around now, so if you do not have trusted venues (like BV) then you can get overwhelmed by choices and not know what to do to achieve what you want.
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