On 28 April 2014 we wrote this about Shane Jones.
Jones heads for the transit lounge
The liquefaction within the Labour Party surfaced again
this week with the impending departure of Shane Jones from the Party and
Parliament.
The public face is one of pleasant well wishing. What’s
really going only the insiders would know, but our speculation is that Jones
faced a number of unpalatable choices and he went for the one that gives him
the best long-term political opportunity.
There is no doubt since the departure of Helen Clark the
neo-communist trade union faction within the Labour Party has gained control.
That would not sit well with Jones and made his chances of ever becoming party
leader pretty slim – despite him being their best hope of success at the ballot
box.
When Cunliffe falls, the dubious honour of the leadership
will probably go to the ex-trade union boss, Andrew Little (and after him to
the current President of the Council of Trade Unions, Helen Kelly, who no doubt
has “Labour MP” predetermined on her career path).
The truth is that Shane Jones is too much a believer in
free enterprise to sit comfortably with a far-left trade unionist party. In
fact, he actually has more in common with National than Labour (and less so
with a Labour government that would include the manic Green and Mana parties).
As a populist politician with the gift of the gab he has a style more akin to
his great mate, Winston Peters.
Our view is that Jones will return to politics. The
allure of drifting around the Pacific Islands drinking coconut juice will soon
wear thin; politics is more intoxicating and an addiction few are able to give
up – especially attention-seekers like Jones. We therefore expect Jones to
return to politics – not with Labour, but with NZ First. It makes sense. NZ
First with Jones as leader is likely to be just as attractive as under Winston
Peters – and it will give Jones a chance to become Deputy PM in a future
government that would more than likely be National, rather than Labour, but it
could be either, depending on how much each is prepared to concede.
National too would not be displeased with such an outcome
– it would give them what they lack – a long-term coalition partner with
significant popular support. That will be for 2017. First National has to deal
with the election just 20 weeks away.
So what now about Jones and the future of NZ First.
Shane Jones will return to Parliament care of a high list
placing (#3) or by stealing the safe National held seat of Whangarei. I expect
the electorate will be a close run race, even though National's Share Reiti
holds it by a huge majority, +13,000 votes. The truth is, National has never
faced a tough candidate in Whangarei like Jones and Reiti has been too
hamstrung having to toe the party line to define himself and establish a strong
presence in the electorate. He's vulnerable, and National knows it. It is no
coincidence that two weeks ago National pledged another $3m to the
Hundertwasser project to take the total funding to the fundraising target. The
local MP did not miss the photo opportunity.
The biggest loser will be Ron Mark. He will have to accept
he will not lead NZ First. Despite being the most competent among what must be
considered a very average bunch of NZ First MPs, it is pretty obvious he is no
match for Jones, and would not have been very good leader anyway. Ron Mark will
probably concede as much and not contest the deputy leadership after the
election. That will leave Jones the crown prince in waiting, for the time when
Winston Peter's decides to stand aside, but not before becoming Deputy PM.
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