Tories fear voter backlash from rising cost of living
In this newsletter:
1) Downing Street is bracing for a new 'Winter of Discontent'
Daily Mail, 23 September 2021
2) Care homes warn crippling energy bills could force closures
The Guardian, 24 September 2021
3) Energy companies supplying six million UK homes face collapse
The Guardian, 24 September 2021
3) Energy companies supplying six million UK homes face collapse
Daily Mail, 23 September 2021
6) Editorial: How the Tories have fuelled Britain’s energy crisis
The Spectator, 25 September 2021
4) Tories fear voter backlash from rising cost of living
Financial Times, 23 September 2021
Financial Times, 23 September 2021
5) An anti-green backlash could reshape British politics as radically as Brexit did
The Economist, 25 September 2021
The Economist, 25 September 2021
6) Editorial: How the Tories have fuelled Britain’s energy crisis
The Spectator, 25 September 2021
7) Rob Lyon: Fracking could have saved us from this energy crisis
Spiked, 23 September 2021
9) And finally: China keeps climate promise, declares oil imports carbon-neutral
Reuters, 23 September 2021
Spiked, 23 September 2021
8) EU countries struggle to agree approach to COP26 climate talks
Reuters, 23 September 2021
Reuters, 23 September 2021
9) And finally: China keeps climate promise, declares oil imports carbon-neutral
Reuters, 23 September 2021
Full details:
1) Downing Street is bracing for a new 'Winter of Discontent' after fuel is rationed, supermarkets warn of food shortages and energy firms go bust
Daily Mail, 23 September 2021
Downing Street today signalled it is bracing for a 'winter of discontent' after BP and Tesco were forced to ration fuel and shut stations, supermarkets warned of food shortages and more energy firms went bust amid rising gas prices.
Number 10 said this afternoon that 'we acknowledge there are issues facing many industries across the UK' as the nation heads into the colder months.
The Prime Minister's Official Spokesman insisted there is no shortage of fuel and urged people to continue to fill up their vehicles 'as normal'.
The spokesman stressed the UK has 'very resilient and robust' supply chains, but the admission of challenges ahead is likely to spark fears of potential disruption.
BP has said it will restrict deliveries of fuel because of a lack of HGV drivers, which has also impacted supermarkets and raised fears of food and even toy shortages over the Christmas period....
The news is the latest sign of the UK struggling to cope because of an ongoing shortage of HGV drivers which comes alongside a worsening energy crisis.
Avro Energy and Green yesterday became the latest energy firms to go out of business as soaring gas prices continued to batter the sector.
Wholesale prices for gas have increased 250 per cent since the start of the year, and 70 per cent since August, meaning firms are buying energy for more than they sell it to customers.
Nine firms have now ceased trading this year, with the head of regulator Ofgem warning more are likely to follow suit, leaving 'well above' hundreds of thousands of customers in limbo.
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng today suggested people should be hoping for a warm autumn to ease gas prices as he said the weather is the 'single most important determinant' of costs.
Full story
see also The chill winds that signal a second Winter of Discontent is coming
2) Care homes warn crippling energy bills could force closures
The Guardian, 24 September 2021
Care operators’ gas and electricity bills could double this winter as a result of the energy crisis
Care operators facing 100% increases in their energy bills to keep residents warm this winter have demanded urgent government intervention to avoid home closures.
A typical care home of 50 residents already spends about £50,000 annually on gas and electricity but price hikes could mean operators paying double that, according to one energy broker. Care homes are not covered by the price cap which protects domestic consumers.
“It could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Melanie Weatherby, co-chair of the Care Association Alliance.
Nadra Ahmed, executive chair of the National Care Association, said the energy price crisis “will make some providers feel they are unsustainable”.
“We can’t turn [heating] off,” she said. “We need it running all the time. I think [the impact] is going to be substantial, especially through the winter months.”
Steve Silverwood, of ECA Business Energy who negotiates for firms including care operators, said: “The care homes that haven’t already purchased energy for forthcoming renewals are going to see 100% plus increases. A care home can be spending £50,000 plus [on energy] and to double that is unbelievable. It’s frightening times.”
Full story
3) Energy companies supplying six million UK homes face collapse
Daily Mail, 23 September 2021
Downing Street today signalled it is bracing for a 'winter of discontent' after BP and Tesco were forced to ration fuel and shut stations, supermarkets warned of food shortages and more energy firms went bust amid rising gas prices.
Number 10 said this afternoon that 'we acknowledge there are issues facing many industries across the UK' as the nation heads into the colder months.
The Prime Minister's Official Spokesman insisted there is no shortage of fuel and urged people to continue to fill up their vehicles 'as normal'.
The spokesman stressed the UK has 'very resilient and robust' supply chains, but the admission of challenges ahead is likely to spark fears of potential disruption.
BP has said it will restrict deliveries of fuel because of a lack of HGV drivers, which has also impacted supermarkets and raised fears of food and even toy shortages over the Christmas period....
The news is the latest sign of the UK struggling to cope because of an ongoing shortage of HGV drivers which comes alongside a worsening energy crisis.
Avro Energy and Green yesterday became the latest energy firms to go out of business as soaring gas prices continued to batter the sector.
Wholesale prices for gas have increased 250 per cent since the start of the year, and 70 per cent since August, meaning firms are buying energy for more than they sell it to customers.
Nine firms have now ceased trading this year, with the head of regulator Ofgem warning more are likely to follow suit, leaving 'well above' hundreds of thousands of customers in limbo.
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng today suggested people should be hoping for a warm autumn to ease gas prices as he said the weather is the 'single most important determinant' of costs.
Full story
see also The chill winds that signal a second Winter of Discontent is coming
2) Care homes warn crippling energy bills could force closures
The Guardian, 24 September 2021
Care operators’ gas and electricity bills could double this winter as a result of the energy crisis
Care operators facing 100% increases in their energy bills to keep residents warm this winter have demanded urgent government intervention to avoid home closures.
A typical care home of 50 residents already spends about £50,000 annually on gas and electricity but price hikes could mean operators paying double that, according to one energy broker. Care homes are not covered by the price cap which protects domestic consumers.
“It could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Melanie Weatherby, co-chair of the Care Association Alliance.
Nadra Ahmed, executive chair of the National Care Association, said the energy price crisis “will make some providers feel they are unsustainable”.
“We can’t turn [heating] off,” she said. “We need it running all the time. I think [the impact] is going to be substantial, especially through the winter months.”
Steve Silverwood, of ECA Business Energy who negotiates for firms including care operators, said: “The care homes that haven’t already purchased energy for forthcoming renewals are going to see 100% plus increases. A care home can be spending £50,000 plus [on energy] and to double that is unbelievable. It’s frightening times.”
Full story
3) Energy companies supplying six million UK homes face collapse
Daily Mail, 23 September 2021
Avro Energy and Green today became the latest energy firms to go out of business as soaring gas prices continued to batter the sector.
Avro Energy and Green today became the latest energy firms to go out of business as soaring gas prices continued to batter the sector.
Ofgem said that it would ensure that Avro's 580,000 domestic gas and electricity customers, and Green's 255,000 households would be protected.
The regulator will choose a new supplier for the households, and said customers should wait to be contacted by their new supplier.
'I want to reassure customers of Avro Energy and Green Supplier Limited that they do not need to worry. Under our safety net we'll make sure your energy supplies continue,' Ofgem director of retail Neil Lawrence said.
'If you have credit on your Avro Energy or Green Supplier Limited account this is protected and you will not lose the money that is owed to you.'
Up to one-in-four UK homes use companies whose wholesale supplies are not 'hedged' against market fluctuations, leaving them heavily exposed, industry sources told Sky News.
Wholesale prices for gas have increased 250% since the start of the year, and 70% since August, meaning these unprotected firms are buying energy for less than they sell it to customers.
Full story
5) An anti-green backlash could reshape British politics as radically as Brexit did
The Economist, 25 September 2021
Poorer people are likely to suffer more than richer ones from the green transition. The impression of injustice is reinforced by the fact that many of the most vocal green activists have a material interest in the green economy as bureaucrats, lobbyists and entrepreneurs.
6) Editorial: How the Tories have fuelled Britain’s energy crisis
The Spectator, 25 September 2021
The Prime Minister has high hopes for the COP26 summit but he should be prepared for other countries to see, in his energy policy, an example of what not to do.
The regulator will choose a new supplier for the households, and said customers should wait to be contacted by their new supplier.
'I want to reassure customers of Avro Energy and Green Supplier Limited that they do not need to worry. Under our safety net we'll make sure your energy supplies continue,' Ofgem director of retail Neil Lawrence said.
'If you have credit on your Avro Energy or Green Supplier Limited account this is protected and you will not lose the money that is owed to you.'
Up to one-in-four UK homes use companies whose wholesale supplies are not 'hedged' against market fluctuations, leaving them heavily exposed, industry sources told Sky News.
Wholesale prices for gas have increased 250% since the start of the year, and 70% since August, meaning these unprotected firms are buying energy for less than they sell it to customers.
Full story
4) Tories fear voter backlash from rising cost of living
Financial Times, 23 September 2021
Rishi Sunak, UK chancellor, is under growing Tory pressure to soften the impact of rising living costs this winter, with one senior MP drawing parallels with the pain suffered by households in the 1970s and 1980s.
Financial Times, 23 September 2021
Rishi Sunak, UK chancellor, is under growing Tory pressure to soften the impact of rising living costs this winter, with one senior MP drawing parallels with the pain suffered by households in the 1970s and 1980s.
Sunak is feeling political heat on an almost daily basis, with families facing sharp rises in energy bills, higher food prices and — according to the Bank of England on Thursday — inflation heading above 4 per cent.
The warning by BP on Thursday that it had “temporarily” closed some of its petrol stations because of a shortage of tanker drivers has heightened concerns among Tory MPs that the country is heading into a dark few months.
For now Sunak is holding the line against calls for more financial support for families in next month’s Budget — arguing that rising wages and a buoyant jobs market are cushioning the impact of rising prices.
He hopes that price surges and supply disruption will prove to be temporary, but Damian Green, former cabinet minister, said: “We are seeing quite a significant sea change in the economic challenges facing this country.
“The cost of living was a huge concern back in the ‘70s and ‘80s,” he said. “But now the issue is back in the forefront.” Green said significantly higher prices were coming down the track....
Steve Baker, another former minister, said:
“I’ve long believed that this winter we will see inflation coming in and staying in. Now we’ve got an energy crisis on top of it.” Like Green, he opposed the universal credit cut.
“I’m sorry to say that rather abstract ideas about levelling up won’t mean much if the public see their bills rising, interest rates rising and the increasing cost of meeting net zero coming in,” he said.
Conservative strategists are nervously monitoring public opinion as prices start to rise...
Full story (£)
The warning by BP on Thursday that it had “temporarily” closed some of its petrol stations because of a shortage of tanker drivers has heightened concerns among Tory MPs that the country is heading into a dark few months.
For now Sunak is holding the line against calls for more financial support for families in next month’s Budget — arguing that rising wages and a buoyant jobs market are cushioning the impact of rising prices.
He hopes that price surges and supply disruption will prove to be temporary, but Damian Green, former cabinet minister, said: “We are seeing quite a significant sea change in the economic challenges facing this country.
“The cost of living was a huge concern back in the ‘70s and ‘80s,” he said. “But now the issue is back in the forefront.” Green said significantly higher prices were coming down the track....
Steve Baker, another former minister, said:
“I’ve long believed that this winter we will see inflation coming in and staying in. Now we’ve got an energy crisis on top of it.” Like Green, he opposed the universal credit cut.
“I’m sorry to say that rather abstract ideas about levelling up won’t mean much if the public see their bills rising, interest rates rising and the increasing cost of meeting net zero coming in,” he said.
Conservative strategists are nervously monitoring public opinion as prices start to rise...
Full story (£)
5) An anti-green backlash could reshape British politics as radically as Brexit did
The Economist, 25 September 2021
Poorer people are likely to suffer more than richer ones from the green transition. The impression of injustice is reinforced by the fact that many of the most vocal green activists have a material interest in the green economy as bureaucrats, lobbyists and entrepreneurs.
WHATEVER A BRITISH voter's natural political hue—Tory blue, Labour red or Liberal Democrat orange—these days it ends up green-tinged. The Tory government talks effusively about "building back greener". Labour wants a "green industrial revolution". Liberal Democrats have used their position as the third party to argue for everybody to go further and faster. And then there are all the people who want to raze the carbon economy to the ground the day after tomorrow: not just the Green Party but also extremist groupuscules such as Extinction Rebellion and Insulate Britain.
Which leaves a gap in the market for something different: anti-green (sic) politics. Brexit transformed Britain by tapping into ordinary people's resentment of distant elites, and anti-greenery could do the same. Environmentalism is driven by populists' two big bogey men, scientific experts and multilateral institutions.
Green campaigners vie to befuddle the public with acronyms and jargon. Multilateral institutions override democratic legislatures in order to co-ordinate global action. In the public mind, greenery is coming to mean global confabs that produce yet more directives, and protesters who block city centres and motorways.
Greenery suffers from the classic problems of technocratic policymaking, namely offering distant rewards in return for immediate sacrifices and imposing uneven costs. Over-50s, the most reliable voters, won't be around to see the world boil (sic). Poorer people are likely to suffer more than richer ones from the green transition, not just because they have less disposable income but also because they are more likely to work in the dirty economy. The impression of injustice is reinforced by the fact that many of the most vocal green activists have a material interest in the green economy as bureaucrats, lobbyists and entrepreneurs.
A fuel-price rise in 2018 inspired France's gilets jaunes; Germany's Alternative für Deutschland and Finland's Finns Party have lambasted green hysteria. In Britain, by contrast, anti-greenery is still nascent. Some on the Tory right have complained that their party is in the grip of the green lobby. A few MPs in the "red wall" — once-safe Labour seats in northern England that turned Tory over Brexit — have warned that green levies on driving could see those voters switch back again. The closure of some London streets to through-traffic has sparked protests.
But such rows are about to get a lot louder. Turbulence on the global energy market is drawing unflattering attention to British energy suppliers, which are struggling with the transition from coal- and gas-fired plants to renewables. The more the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, says about there being "absolutely no question of the lights going out", the more consumers will worry.
And other environmental policies on the horizon will also hit them hard. From 2030 the sale of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned. The electric cars that will replace them are rapidly improving, but not yet as cheap or as convenient. For city-dwellers it is hard enough to find parking without having to look for a charging-point too, and long journeys require planning.
How to avert an anti-green backlash? Politicians need to avoid unforced errors, such as switching over from gas boilers before reliable replacements are ready. They need to shield vulnerable groups from the costs of the energy transition, remembering how the mood turned against globalisation when politicians failed to honour promises to compensate the losers. They need to see the world through the eyes of people who accept that climate change is a problem but must ceaselessly struggle to get by in the here and now.
Full post (£)
Which leaves a gap in the market for something different: anti-green (sic) politics. Brexit transformed Britain by tapping into ordinary people's resentment of distant elites, and anti-greenery could do the same. Environmentalism is driven by populists' two big bogey men, scientific experts and multilateral institutions.
Green campaigners vie to befuddle the public with acronyms and jargon. Multilateral institutions override democratic legislatures in order to co-ordinate global action. In the public mind, greenery is coming to mean global confabs that produce yet more directives, and protesters who block city centres and motorways.
Greenery suffers from the classic problems of technocratic policymaking, namely offering distant rewards in return for immediate sacrifices and imposing uneven costs. Over-50s, the most reliable voters, won't be around to see the world boil (sic). Poorer people are likely to suffer more than richer ones from the green transition, not just because they have less disposable income but also because they are more likely to work in the dirty economy. The impression of injustice is reinforced by the fact that many of the most vocal green activists have a material interest in the green economy as bureaucrats, lobbyists and entrepreneurs.
A fuel-price rise in 2018 inspired France's gilets jaunes; Germany's Alternative für Deutschland and Finland's Finns Party have lambasted green hysteria. In Britain, by contrast, anti-greenery is still nascent. Some on the Tory right have complained that their party is in the grip of the green lobby. A few MPs in the "red wall" — once-safe Labour seats in northern England that turned Tory over Brexit — have warned that green levies on driving could see those voters switch back again. The closure of some London streets to through-traffic has sparked protests.
But such rows are about to get a lot louder. Turbulence on the global energy market is drawing unflattering attention to British energy suppliers, which are struggling with the transition from coal- and gas-fired plants to renewables. The more the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, says about there being "absolutely no question of the lights going out", the more consumers will worry.
And other environmental policies on the horizon will also hit them hard. From 2030 the sale of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned. The electric cars that will replace them are rapidly improving, but not yet as cheap or as convenient. For city-dwellers it is hard enough to find parking without having to look for a charging-point too, and long journeys require planning.
How to avert an anti-green backlash? Politicians need to avoid unforced errors, such as switching over from gas boilers before reliable replacements are ready. They need to shield vulnerable groups from the costs of the energy transition, remembering how the mood turned against globalisation when politicians failed to honour promises to compensate the losers. They need to see the world through the eyes of people who accept that climate change is a problem but must ceaselessly struggle to get by in the here and now.
Full post (£)
6) Editorial: How the Tories have fuelled Britain’s energy crisis
The Spectator, 25 September 2021
The Prime Minister has high hopes for the COP26 summit but he should be prepared for other countries to see, in his energy policy, an example of what not to do.
Britain is caught in an energy crisis of the government’s own making. It is true that gas prices have spiked all over the world — but Britain is suffering more than most. Energy suppliers are going out of business, thanks to the government’s price cap. Even fertiliser companies are going bust, with serious knock-on effects for the food industry: the British Meat Processors Association says shortages could hit within a fortnight.
The trigger for this crisis has been the sudden surge in demand for gas as the global economy recovers from the Covid lockdowns. Gas prices have doubled in the United States, for example. In Britain, however, prices are five times higher. Why? Because America exploited fracking technology and capitalised on its huge inland gas reserves. Britain passed up the fracking opportunity, in spite of vast reserves found in Lancashire and Yorkshire. We are living with the consequences.
While the UK government is right to phase out the burning of coal (easily the dirtiest form of energy, emitting around twice as much carbon dioxide as gas plants), it is also running down our gas infrastructure without providing a viable alternative. In 2017, the Rough storage facility off the Yorkshire coast, which accounted for two-thirds of our gas capacity, was closed and not replaced.
Every country has gas reserves in the event of widespread shortages. France has 14 weeks’ worth, Germany has eight weeks, Italy has 11 weeks, while Britain has just four days. That is virtually no buffer at all when a supply crisis strikes.
There is plenty that can go wrong with gas: a fire knocked out a major power cable linking Britain with France last week, for example. Britain’s reserve hope now lies in shipments of liquified shale gas produced abroad — supplies of which are currently being diverted to Asia, where demand is strongest.
Renewables can produce impressive quantities of energy. Yet Britain has created a huge wind and solar sector without overcoming the obvious problem: how to store the energy generated on sunny and windy days so it can be used on still and overcast ones. It is unfortunate that the surge in global gas prices has coincided with a period of light winds over Britain, but that should have been anticipated. Many observers outside government saw the problem coming.
Today Britain presents itself as a great example to other nations when it comes to handling energy policy and tackling climate change. Indeed, Boris Johnson has spent this week in New York asking why so few countries have followed Britain in making a legally binding commitment to hit net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The polite answer is that countries also have a duty to secure affordable energy for their citizens. When the COP26 summit convenes in Glasgow in a few weeks’ time, Britain could be in the middle of an energy crisis. The UK government might have to bail out almost-bankrupt fossil-fuel companies in a desperate attempt to keep the lights on. That would hardly be a great advertisement to the world.
For years it has suited ministers to accuse energy companies of overcharging their customers because it has helped divert attention from another reason for rising bills: green energy subsidies and other social levies, which, according to Ofgem, account for 25p in every £1 charged on domestic electricity bills. And as is now clear, with several of the smaller energy companies going bust or on the point of doing so, it has long been a cut-throat market where challenger companies have tried to compete by insuring themselves against price spikes.
Like the banks who lent long and borrowed short, the folly of this has come to a head. But the problem has been hugely exacerbated by the energy price cap which, while popular with the public, has prevented energy companies from raising prices in response to a sharp increase in wholesale prices. The government is doing with failing energy companies what it did with failing banks: bailing them out with taxpayers’ money, thereby ensuring that they will repeat their reckless behaviour.
Much as the government would love to be able to deliver secure energy supplies and low prices in tandem with zero carbon emissions, the technology simply does not yet exist to make it possible. The Tories, ever keen to capture the green zeitgeist, had the chance to establish energy security — or diversity of supply. They did neither, and went all-out for decarbonisation instead. We are now seeing the consequences.
Of course it is right to try to reduce emissions to zero if we can. However, energy security and economic growth should be the first priorities. As things stand, they are treated as an afterthought. We have caught a glimpse of the results this week. The Prime Minister has high hopes for the COP26 summit but he should be prepared for other countries to see, in his energy policy, an example of what not to do.
The trigger for this crisis has been the sudden surge in demand for gas as the global economy recovers from the Covid lockdowns. Gas prices have doubled in the United States, for example. In Britain, however, prices are five times higher. Why? Because America exploited fracking technology and capitalised on its huge inland gas reserves. Britain passed up the fracking opportunity, in spite of vast reserves found in Lancashire and Yorkshire. We are living with the consequences.
While the UK government is right to phase out the burning of coal (easily the dirtiest form of energy, emitting around twice as much carbon dioxide as gas plants), it is also running down our gas infrastructure without providing a viable alternative. In 2017, the Rough storage facility off the Yorkshire coast, which accounted for two-thirds of our gas capacity, was closed and not replaced.
Every country has gas reserves in the event of widespread shortages. France has 14 weeks’ worth, Germany has eight weeks, Italy has 11 weeks, while Britain has just four days. That is virtually no buffer at all when a supply crisis strikes.
There is plenty that can go wrong with gas: a fire knocked out a major power cable linking Britain with France last week, for example. Britain’s reserve hope now lies in shipments of liquified shale gas produced abroad — supplies of which are currently being diverted to Asia, where demand is strongest.
Renewables can produce impressive quantities of energy. Yet Britain has created a huge wind and solar sector without overcoming the obvious problem: how to store the energy generated on sunny and windy days so it can be used on still and overcast ones. It is unfortunate that the surge in global gas prices has coincided with a period of light winds over Britain, but that should have been anticipated. Many observers outside government saw the problem coming.
Today Britain presents itself as a great example to other nations when it comes to handling energy policy and tackling climate change. Indeed, Boris Johnson has spent this week in New York asking why so few countries have followed Britain in making a legally binding commitment to hit net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The polite answer is that countries also have a duty to secure affordable energy for their citizens. When the COP26 summit convenes in Glasgow in a few weeks’ time, Britain could be in the middle of an energy crisis. The UK government might have to bail out almost-bankrupt fossil-fuel companies in a desperate attempt to keep the lights on. That would hardly be a great advertisement to the world.
For years it has suited ministers to accuse energy companies of overcharging their customers because it has helped divert attention from another reason for rising bills: green energy subsidies and other social levies, which, according to Ofgem, account for 25p in every £1 charged on domestic electricity bills. And as is now clear, with several of the smaller energy companies going bust or on the point of doing so, it has long been a cut-throat market where challenger companies have tried to compete by insuring themselves against price spikes.
Like the banks who lent long and borrowed short, the folly of this has come to a head. But the problem has been hugely exacerbated by the energy price cap which, while popular with the public, has prevented energy companies from raising prices in response to a sharp increase in wholesale prices. The government is doing with failing energy companies what it did with failing banks: bailing them out with taxpayers’ money, thereby ensuring that they will repeat their reckless behaviour.
Much as the government would love to be able to deliver secure energy supplies and low prices in tandem with zero carbon emissions, the technology simply does not yet exist to make it possible. The Tories, ever keen to capture the green zeitgeist, had the chance to establish energy security — or diversity of supply. They did neither, and went all-out for decarbonisation instead. We are now seeing the consequences.
Of course it is right to try to reduce emissions to zero if we can. However, energy security and economic growth should be the first priorities. As things stand, they are treated as an afterthought. We have caught a glimpse of the results this week. The Prime Minister has high hopes for the COP26 summit but he should be prepared for other countries to see, in his energy policy, an example of what not to do.
7) Rob Lyon: Fracking could have saved us from this energy crisis
Spiked, 23 September 2021
The UK has vast gas reserves that Boris Johnson is refusing to exploit.
Rising prices and dwindling supplies of natural gas have sparked fears of an energy crisis. Energy bills are shooting upwards. The government is even having to step in to support the production of fertiliser – and its vital byproduct, carbon dioxide – which relies on affordable gas supplies. If only the UK had a bountiful supply of natural gas of its own…. Well, it does – but thanks to eco-warriors and spineless ministers, we’re not exploiting it.
For decades, thanks to the rich gas fields of the North Sea, the UK was self-sufficient in natural gas. But supplies have been in decline for years, down from 107.8 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2003 to just 39.6 bcm in 2019. Now just 48 per cent of UK gas comes from the UK continental shelf, according to the government. In 2018, 72 per cent of our imports came through pipelines from Norway. Gas prices in the UK are also influenced by happenings in the wider world market, particularly the market for liquefied natural gas from Qatar and Russia.
Offshore gas supplies may have declined. But we could increase domestic gas production markedly if we would only take advantage of our vast, onshore shale-gas deposits. According to the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, estimates of UK shale-gas reserves range from 2.8 to 39.9 trillion cubic metres (tcm). In 2013, then prime minister David Cameron said that if just 10 per cent of known reserves could be extracted, it would provide the equivalent of the UK’s total gas needs for 51 years. The way to extract this gas is to replicate what the US has successfully done, by combining horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – aka, fracking.
The trouble is that there has been a moratorium on fracking in England since November 2019 because of worries about earth tremors. Concerns intensified after a tremor in Lancashire measured 2.9 on the Richter scale. This ‘quake’, as the Guardian hyperbolically referred to it, could be felt in neighbouring towns.
What terrible catastrophe resulted? One resident of nearby Lytham St Annes, quoted by the Guardian, said there was a ‘very loud rumbling’, the ‘whole house shook’ and a ‘picture fell off a shelf’. It was ‘quite scary’, apparently. In the history of seismic events, this registered low on the Does Anybody Really Care scale.
As Cuadrilla, the company which ran the fracking site, pointed out, the rumble caused only a third of the ground motion that is allowed by law for construction projects. A report commissioned by the government, published in December 2020, suggested that a tremor of similar magnitude to that in Lancashire ‘may cause sparse cases of low superficial damage’.
In other words, a potentially important industry – one that might have even saved us from the current gas crisis – has been banned for relatively trivial reasons. To get things into perspective, one study found that 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the UK during the 1980s and 1990s were caused by mining. Yet the risk of tremors was never a serious consideration in determining whether mining should be allowed – and these quakes certainly didn’t inspire the kind of panic-mongering that fracking has.
Let’s be honest. The eco-protesters who have made fracking difficult in the UK are not really concerned about such minor subterranean movements. What they really want to do is to stop companies from extracting and burning fossil fuels. They will exploit any issue to scare people into rejecting gas production. And the UK government, obsessed with cutting greenhouse-gas emissions and fearful of localised protests, has bowed down to them.
Instead of being fairly self-sufficient in gas – with the lucrative possibilities of exporting our surplus, too – we have become dependent on imported sources of energy. Many commentators have been raising the alarm about this situation for years. Now we are facing big rises in energy bills both for households and for industry. While the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, tweeted that the ‘security’ of our gas supply is ‘not a cause for immediate concern’, there are plenty of people who are far from reassured. A particularly cold winter, a continuing lull in wind generation or some other unforeseen circumstance could put UK energy supplies in real jeopardy.
The government should put energy prices and security at the forefront of its energy policies. Instead, we have made it impossible to make the most of an abundant energy source beneath our feet. The ban on fracking could turn out to be a very expensive mistake this winter.
9) And finally: China keeps climate promise, declares oil imports carbon-neutral
Reuters, 23 September 2021
SINGAPORE: China's refining giant Sinopec Corp said on Wednesday it has jointly certified the country's first carbon-neutral crude oil cargo with shipping giant Cosco Shipping and China Eastern Airlines .
The 30,000-tonne cargo was produced by Sinopec in Angola and shipped by Cosco Shipping to an east China-based Sinopec refinery for processing, Sinopec said.
To offset the carbon dioxide produced during the process from crude production to shipping to consumption by vehicles and airplanes, the three state firms bought Chinese Certified Emissions Reductions credits.
Full story
Spiked, 23 September 2021
The UK has vast gas reserves that Boris Johnson is refusing to exploit.
Rising prices and dwindling supplies of natural gas have sparked fears of an energy crisis. Energy bills are shooting upwards. The government is even having to step in to support the production of fertiliser – and its vital byproduct, carbon dioxide – which relies on affordable gas supplies. If only the UK had a bountiful supply of natural gas of its own…. Well, it does – but thanks to eco-warriors and spineless ministers, we’re not exploiting it.
For decades, thanks to the rich gas fields of the North Sea, the UK was self-sufficient in natural gas. But supplies have been in decline for years, down from 107.8 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2003 to just 39.6 bcm in 2019. Now just 48 per cent of UK gas comes from the UK continental shelf, according to the government. In 2018, 72 per cent of our imports came through pipelines from Norway. Gas prices in the UK are also influenced by happenings in the wider world market, particularly the market for liquefied natural gas from Qatar and Russia.
Offshore gas supplies may have declined. But we could increase domestic gas production markedly if we would only take advantage of our vast, onshore shale-gas deposits. According to the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, estimates of UK shale-gas reserves range from 2.8 to 39.9 trillion cubic metres (tcm). In 2013, then prime minister David Cameron said that if just 10 per cent of known reserves could be extracted, it would provide the equivalent of the UK’s total gas needs for 51 years. The way to extract this gas is to replicate what the US has successfully done, by combining horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – aka, fracking.
The trouble is that there has been a moratorium on fracking in England since November 2019 because of worries about earth tremors. Concerns intensified after a tremor in Lancashire measured 2.9 on the Richter scale. This ‘quake’, as the Guardian hyperbolically referred to it, could be felt in neighbouring towns.
What terrible catastrophe resulted? One resident of nearby Lytham St Annes, quoted by the Guardian, said there was a ‘very loud rumbling’, the ‘whole house shook’ and a ‘picture fell off a shelf’. It was ‘quite scary’, apparently. In the history of seismic events, this registered low on the Does Anybody Really Care scale.
As Cuadrilla, the company which ran the fracking site, pointed out, the rumble caused only a third of the ground motion that is allowed by law for construction projects. A report commissioned by the government, published in December 2020, suggested that a tremor of similar magnitude to that in Lancashire ‘may cause sparse cases of low superficial damage’.
In other words, a potentially important industry – one that might have even saved us from the current gas crisis – has been banned for relatively trivial reasons. To get things into perspective, one study found that 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the UK during the 1980s and 1990s were caused by mining. Yet the risk of tremors was never a serious consideration in determining whether mining should be allowed – and these quakes certainly didn’t inspire the kind of panic-mongering that fracking has.
Let’s be honest. The eco-protesters who have made fracking difficult in the UK are not really concerned about such minor subterranean movements. What they really want to do is to stop companies from extracting and burning fossil fuels. They will exploit any issue to scare people into rejecting gas production. And the UK government, obsessed with cutting greenhouse-gas emissions and fearful of localised protests, has bowed down to them.
Instead of being fairly self-sufficient in gas – with the lucrative possibilities of exporting our surplus, too – we have become dependent on imported sources of energy. Many commentators have been raising the alarm about this situation for years. Now we are facing big rises in energy bills both for households and for industry. While the business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, tweeted that the ‘security’ of our gas supply is ‘not a cause for immediate concern’, there are plenty of people who are far from reassured. A particularly cold winter, a continuing lull in wind generation or some other unforeseen circumstance could put UK energy supplies in real jeopardy.
The government should put energy prices and security at the forefront of its energy policies. Instead, we have made it impossible to make the most of an abundant energy source beneath our feet. The ban on fracking could turn out to be a very expensive mistake this winter.
8) EU countries struggle to agree approach to COP26 climate talks
Reuters, 23 September 2021
BRUSSELS, Sept 23 (Reuters) - European Union countries are struggling to agree their negotiating position for the COP26 climate change conference, with rifts emerging over timeframes for emissions-cutting pledges, according to officials and documents seen by Reuters.
The EU is drafting its position ahead of the November COP26 talks, where countries will attempt to finish the technical rules to put the Paris Agreement into effect.
One issue they will try to settle is whether countries' climate targets under the 2015 accord should follow a "common timeframe".
In an early sign of the clashes to come at COP26, where nearly 200 countries will negotiate the issue, the EU's 27 member states are divided over whether targets should cover five or 10 year periods.
Full story
Reuters, 23 September 2021
BRUSSELS, Sept 23 (Reuters) - European Union countries are struggling to agree their negotiating position for the COP26 climate change conference, with rifts emerging over timeframes for emissions-cutting pledges, according to officials and documents seen by Reuters.
The EU is drafting its position ahead of the November COP26 talks, where countries will attempt to finish the technical rules to put the Paris Agreement into effect.
One issue they will try to settle is whether countries' climate targets under the 2015 accord should follow a "common timeframe".
In an early sign of the clashes to come at COP26, where nearly 200 countries will negotiate the issue, the EU's 27 member states are divided over whether targets should cover five or 10 year periods.
Full story
9) And finally: China keeps climate promise, declares oil imports carbon-neutral
Reuters, 23 September 2021
SINGAPORE: China's refining giant Sinopec Corp said on Wednesday it has jointly certified the country's first carbon-neutral crude oil cargo with shipping giant Cosco Shipping and China Eastern Airlines .
The 30,000-tonne cargo was produced by Sinopec in Angola and shipped by Cosco Shipping to an east China-based Sinopec refinery for processing, Sinopec said.
To offset the carbon dioxide produced during the process from crude production to shipping to consumption by vehicles and airplanes, the three state firms bought Chinese Certified Emissions Reductions credits.
Full story
The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.
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