During my time attending the state institutions for learning, history was one of the few subjects that appealed to me as a topic that provided the answers to questions about our own survival as a species. It still does but tragically the history books of yesteryear seem to be absent from or not used in modern classrooms. This act of vandalism is part of a modern trend that we will regret, especially when it is replaced with deliberate indoctrination of alternative theory rather than facts.
Further, most of the signs these days are that diplomats
who command the type of international respect awarded to Metternich are few and
far between. Worse, it would appear that the few who advocate diplomacy of the
type - “ talk softly and wave a big stick” - on the world stage are dismissed as
lightweights at a time when the world needs them more than ever.
But there is hope and it is not all bad news.
Two developments related to the current Ukrainian war
with Russia indicate that at least one of the participant leaders, in a
conflict that could easily escalate into a third word war, is starting to
recognise that there will be no winners by prolonging this slaughter and the
sooner that the fighting stops, the sooner a formula for peace can be
discussed. But any chance of a lasting peace will only exist if the
negotiations take place on the basis that concessions will have to be made on both
sides.
This is not a repeat situation like what existed at the
end of earlier World Wars One and Two.
This time, there will be no outright winner. The current
world powers will not allow it despite some ill advised and premature comments
from Joe Biden that victory is at hand.
Biden’s comments should be taken in context against the
backdrop of the real politics that exists on the battlefront itself and are
more a reflection of his own ineptitude than anything else.
In the real world, if we pay attention to the detail of
what is actually happening, we can actually recognise a willingness to reach a
negotiated settlement from recent statements of both leaders.
Just last week, the Ukrainian leader Zelensky is reported
to have said that he is prepared to negotiate a settlement but only with the
Russian President himself.
This effective olive branch is supported by one of the
20th centuries elder statesmen, Henry Kissinger (the man responsible for the US
rapprochement with China) who observed that Ukraine must be prepared to give up
border territory in order for negotiations to succeed. I believe Zelensky is a
realist and will meet with Putin knowing that this concession and other
commitments to do with NATO membership will be the price he has to pay in order
to end the war.
NATO and the West should recognise this opportunity for
peace and pursue it with vigour while there is still time. What other options
are there?
Kissinger was making his comments based on experience in
successful international diplomacy that recognised the different types of world
orders that allow peaceful coexistence between super powers in an environment
based on mutual respect.
It is notable that the problems leading to this current
conflict have all originated from one side (Russia) perhaps mistakenly,
assessing their counterpart (The US) as being a weaker defender of the Free
World than it was when Trump was President.
The only deterrent these dictators respect is a showing
of strength and a commitment to use it in defence of the realm.
Biden’s tough talk in defence against the Chinese threat
to Taiwan is a negotiating tool that neither Metternich or Kissinger would have
used because it doesn’t include the escape clause with honour that is so vital
to any successful conclusion of crucial high level talks.
I would bet that Putin is also realistic enough to
realise time is running out if he wants to avoid the nuclear option and now is
his last chance to accept a settlement based on the addition of the eastern
corridor he has secured through conquest which would be sufficient
justification for claiming the invasion a success to his fellow Russians. In
order to reach agreement however, he will have to concede that any redrawn
boundaries go no further than the territories he has captured. That will
provide Zelensky with the opportunity to say he has successfully defended the
bulk of his country and kept casualties to a minimum - in a sense, his own
version of who won.
A win/win of sorts. But that is what Real politics is
all about - achieving the possible.
In the meantime, the world holds its breath and hopes that cool heads will prevail.
Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.
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