Cam Slater: Roy Morgan Poll Tells a Different Story

While Maiki Sherman was getting sticky knickers over the 1News/Verian Poll on Monday night, Roy Morgan released their poll the very next day, and it tells a different story from the gushing fantasy of 1News.

Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2024 shows the new National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 53% (down 3% points from March) with a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 43% (up 2.5% points).

For the National-led Government support for National was down 1.5% to 36.5%, support for ACT decreased 0.5% points to 11% and support for NZ First was down 1% to 5.5%.

For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was up 1.5% to 24.5% while support for the Greens was [up] 0.5% to 13% and support for the Maori Party was up 1.5% points to 5.5%.

A further 4% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2% (down 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2% (up 1%) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.

Roy Morgan

That is a gap which is considerably larger than suggested by 1News/Verian.

The survey results for April would lead to 66 seats (down two seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 54 seats (down one seat) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.

For the governing coalition National’s support would win 45 seats (down four seats), support for ACT would equal 14 seats (up three seats) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).

For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 31 seats (down three seats), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and the Maori Party would win seven seats (up one seat).

Roy Morgan

So not quite the dire predictions of the commentariat and left-wing media who, strangely, haven’t mentioned this poll at all. I wonder why?

Also, amazingly, the normally private results of the Talbot Mills poll, Labour’s own pollster, were miraculously leaked to the failing Newshub with the following results:

• National: 4% (-4)
• Labour: 33% (+5)
• Greens: 12% (-2)
• ACT: 7% (-1)
• NZF: 6% (-)
• TPM: 4% (n/a)

Labour thinks they are onto a winner here…without actually doing anything at all. It is a fool’s errand to believe that a couple of polls is a trend that will see them returned to office.

Still, beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to good political news.

If a trend develops, well, that’s news, rather than the results of just one poll.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.