David Farrar: The Spinoff on the Wellington long tunnel

Joel McManus writes:

There are three options being considered, but the one that has garnered the most interest is the long tunnel, running all the way underneath the Wellington city centre.

The investigation has cost $1.6 million so far, which is not an unreasonable amount of money to spend during the early stages of a multibillion-dollar city-building project. But this is a transport minister who has been happy to attack other projects as “a gravy train for consultants”, which does make it seem a bit more hypocritical.

Not really. Auckland Light Rail had $230 million of spending which resulted in nothing. The cycle bridge had $560 million that resulted in nothing. They were planning to spend $100 million just one a business case for Wellington rapid transit. LGWM spent $83 million on consultants that resulted in an unpopular pedestrian crossing.

By contrast $1.6 million to get some idea of how much Wellington’s largest ever transport project would cost, is in a different galaxy for spending.

The city council and regional council both hate the long tunnel.

That is almost proof it is a good idea.

There is no natural constituency clamouring for it other than Simeon Brown himself and some late-career Marks and Johns at Waka Kotahi NZTA.

This is, respectfully, nonsense. To claim there is no natural constituency for a tunnel that would knock 15 minutes each way off travel times is a bizarre view.

But the long tunnel isn’t stupid. It’s expensive and high-risk, but if it were viable, it would be a fundamentally good idea.

Here we agree. It is fundamentally a good idea. The two major negatives are:

• Cost. At $5 billion you’d do it without banking. at $10 billion you’d be blinking a lot.
• Time: Perfect can be the enemy of good. A second Mt Vic tunnel has less benefits but can be done quicker than the mega-tunnel. Do you do something that could reduce congestion in less than 10 years or something that might not be completed for say 15 years?

The long tunnel would solve real problems. It would speed up trips through Wellington and, more importantly, free up space in the city centre. Right now, State Highway 1 empties out onto Vivian Street, which would be a much more popular retail area if it wasn’t a car sewer. It cuts straight across Cuba Street, causing a noticeable drop in foot traffic south of the intersection.

Not having SH1 cut the city in two would be a good thing.

Then, there’s the Basin Reserve, which has been an awkward issue for transport. It sits right in the middle of a complex intersection, with traffic going east/west between SH1 and the airport and traffic going north/south toward the city.

The NS and EW traffic must be separated. This tunnel is not the only way to do it, but certainly would achieve that.

It’s not a question of whether the long tunnel would be good for Wellington – it would. The question is whether it is the best use of money. Is $4 billion (or whatever the final cost ends up being) worth it for a slightly quicker drive from the Hutt to the airport, a few apartments in Te Aro, and a slightly better service on the Number 1 bus?

Not slightly quicker. Potentially half an hour quicker for a return trip.

But the opportunity cost is very real. The more it costs, the harder the case for it is.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.