David Farrar: Green priorities

The Greens are campaigning on:

• Funding gangs to do drug rehabilitation

• Their right to campaign at gang pads for votes and selfies

• Repealing the gang patch law

• Allowing all prisoners to vote, even mass murderers

David Farrar: An Amazing Principal

The Herald reports:

In 2017, Ngaire Ashmore walked into a school in crisis. Now Auckland Girls’ Grammar School is winning awards, fielding hundreds of out-of-zone applications per year, and 92% of its Year 13 students have gained University Entrance – compared to 48% a decade ago.

The school’s first Māori woman principal spoke candidly to Carolyne Meng-Yee about becoming a mother at 19, challenging low expectations and the personal experiences that shaped her conviction that every student has potential – even when they can’t see it in themselves.

David Farrar: More on the Herald so called poll of polls

On the 2nd of October I wrote:

So the last six polls, all from different firms, have had ACT ahead of Opportunity by margins ranging from 1% to 6%, and the Herald-MOTU poll of polls says that the poll of polls means Opportunity is ahead of ACT.

On the 8th of October the Herald did an explainer, and have made some changes. Much of their explanation has nothing to do with why they had Opportunity above ACT, when every single pollster had them 1% to 6% behind. But there were some nuggets of useful info:

David Farrar: The $300m Labour fiscal hole media have ignored

Here is Labour’s fiscal plan:

Click to view

You will see they are forecasting $365 million over four years from “reversing tobacco tax cut”.

David Farrar: Gangs are organised crime, not a community group

The Herald reports:

Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick won’t say if she would have advised her MP Hūhana Lyndon against meeting with members of the Mongrel Mob.

After being asked the question twice, Swarbrick said she needed to “understand more of the context as to what has played out here”, although she earlier said having those types of engagements were important to understanding and addressing issues in the community.

David Farrar: Education is heading in the right direction

Erica Stanford released:

New independent assessment results show primary and intermediate students made the equivalent of four months’ additional progress in mathematics between 2024 and 2026, signalling a turnaround in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford says.

David Farrar: Spending promises gone berserk

The latest update from the Taxpayers’ Union bribe-o-meter:

In the table below, two of the seven parties are being fiscally responsible. Two are being irresponsible, and three are just in the money goes on trees category.

David Farrar: Every health target is improving

The previous Labour Government abolished almost all the health targets, did a distarous mega-merger during a pandemic, and outcomes in the health sector fell across the board. The health sector is still under great strain, but the data shows that there has been considerable improvement in all five target areas. This is the latest data to June 2026.

David Farrar: Should NZ join the EU?

Simon Bridges writes:

This came to mind recently when EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen got cosy with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at her 2026 state of the union address over Canada becoming an “associate member” of the European Union. If it’s good enough for them, why not us Kiwis?

David Farrar: Why Mowbray donates

Nick Mowbray writes:

I’m aware of the criticism we receive for donating to National and ACT. I’m also aware of the false narrative that we lobby the government and expect something in return.

So let me be clear: we have never lobbied the government. Less than 1% of ZURU’s revenue is in New Zealand.

We donate because we care about this country’s future and believe National and ACT have the right talent and strategy to move it forward.

David Farrar: Labour’s Fiscal Fraud

Labour’s so called fiscal plan is a fraud. First here is what Barbara Edmonds said on Newstalk ZB:

Well, for example, a choice that we would not make is $300 million for a tobacco excise tax cut. Okay. That means there is $300 million more that is a choice. So only $12.7 billion more to find?

David Farrar: BSA legislation introduced

Paul Goldsmith announced:

Legislation which disestablishes the Broadcasting Standards Authority has been introduced to Parliament today, Media and Communications Minister Paul Goldsmith says.

“Our Government promised to get this legislation into the House before we rise. Today we’re delivering.

David Farrar: The Herald poll of polls is wrong!

I am a big fan of polling averages and simulations. In fact I always say don’t pick just one poll, but look at the average, and the trend over time. So I was delighted when the Herald did Herald-Motu poll of polls. However whatever formula they are using is producing results that simply do not match the actual results it is meant to be averaging or simulating.

David Farrar: Labour’s inflation tax

Simeon Brown pointed out:

“According to Labour’s own modelling, where house prices rise by 3 per cent and inflation sits at 2 per cent, the vast majority of the revenue collected from Labour’s Capital Gains Tax comes only from inflation rather than real gains.

“Under those conditions, a couple who buy an $800,000 rental and sell it five years later for $927,000 would have to pay a tax of $35,600. Once inflation is accounted for, that amounts to an effective tax rate of 81 per cent on the couple’s real capital gain.

David Farrar: A policy to have more overstayers

The Herald reports:

The Labour Party cannot say how many additional Pacific Islanders will come to New Zealand under its proposal of visa-waiver travel.

The political party announced on Thursday morning it would expand visa-waiver access to citizens from the Pacific Islands Forum nations.

David Farrar: Food Price Inflation

This graph below shows annual food price inflation for NZ and four other countries for each three year period (2015 – 2017, 2018 – 2020, 2021 – 2023, 2024 – Jun 26).

David Farrar: ACT’s Waitangi Tribunal policy

ACT have released their policy on abolishing the Waitangi Tribunal once it has concluded the historical Treaty claims, and remove its jurisdiction. over contemporary issues.

David Farrar: Labour committed to bribing the media

 

The Post reports:

Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins has committed to reviving the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill, which has been left languishing on Parliament’s order paper since 2024, and said the party will campaign on it at the election.

David Farrar: Super may consume 30% of the tax take!

The Post reports:

A new paper examining the future of New Zealand Superannuation has found that, if left unchanged, the scheme could consume more than 30% of the Government’s tax revenue every year by 2065 and will be unsustainable in its current form.

The paper, published in the International Review of Public Administration in late August, was authored by outgoing National Party MP Andrew Bayly, his former adviser Leonard Hong, and Emmanuel Jo from the University of Auckland’s School of Medicine.

We must make it more sustainable.

David Farrar: Prebble and ChatGPT score the last two Governments

Richard Prebble asked ChatGPT to score the last two Governments on how they had performed in key areas. The summary is: