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Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Chris Lynch: Poll shows National gain but coalition numbers slip


A new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll has delivered mixed news for National, which gained support, but with coalition numbers falling short of forming a government.

The poll, conducted between 31 August and 2 September, showed Labour holding on to its position as the largest party, edging up 0.2 points to 33.8 percent. National gained 1.3 points to 33.1 percent.

The Greens rose 0.9 points to 10.7 percent, while New Zealand First increased 0.3 points to 8.1 percent. ACT dropped 1.9 points to 6.7 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gained 1.1 points to 4.3 percent.

For the smaller parties, TOP fell 1.5 points to 1.1 percent, Outdoors and Freedom was down 0.3 points to 0.8 percent, Vision NZ rose 0.2 points to 0.6 percent, and the New Conservatives lifted 0.3 points to 0.3 percent.

Based on the poll’s seat projections, the centre-left bloc remained on 61 seats, while the centre-right dropped to 60. Labour was projected to lose one seat, bringing them to 42, while National gained two, also reaching 42. The Greens gained one seat to 13, New Zealand First held steady on 10, ACT dropped three to 8, and Te Pāti Māori stayed on 6.

Cost of living pressures remained the top issue for voters at 27.5 percent, up 3.1 points. The economy more broadly was next on 16.1 percent, down 4.6 points, followed by health at 11.1 percent, employment at 7.5 percent, and taxes at 4.7 percent.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross said the results underscored the tight race.

“With Labour and National tied on 42 seats each, it’s neck and neck as we close in on the final year before the next election,” Ross said.

“This Government is still hanging on by its fingertips. They were elected to provide cost-of-living relief, and so far they’ve been unable to deliver.

“If National want to go into the next election with some breathing room, families need to stop feeling the squeeze. That means growth, jobs, and rates relief.”

Broadcaster Chris Lynch is an award winning journalist who also produces Christchurch news and video content for domestic and international companies. This article was originally published by Chris Lynch Media and is published here with kind permission.

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