Make believe is a powerful element of the human condition. The willingness to embrace an illusion is a pre-requisite to enjoy a movie, magic show or a marriage.
Santa is a parable and since we are talking parables let’s embrace another. The Hans Christian Anderson tale of a naked emperor. We know the story. The monarch was a wastrel, lavishing the resources of the state on himself while the affairs of his realm go unattended.
Two devious weavers dupe the sovereign into purchasing a suit that does not exist. They dress him with extravagant care in nothing but his own fancy and none of his subjects dare to confront him with the reality; that he is wearing nothing other than his vanity.
As he marches down the avenue of his capital the spell is broken by an urchin who comments that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes. Something that everyone can see but none were willing to state.
Last week it was the role of the Taxpayers Union to play the role of the truth-telling boy by pointing out that the magnificent cloak of fiscal prudence that the Minister of Finance has wrapped around herself is an illusion.
This brought the ire of the Beehive because the Taxpayers Union is meant to be an ally of fiscally conservative governments. And here is the shock. They are.
Last week Treasury released the half-Yearly Economic Update. There is a lot of data to process and some good news for the minister of finance. In the December 2024 forecast OBEGALx was projected to be short 12.9 billion in fiscal 2025. Treasury records the shortfall was only 9.3.
Wait. Wait is an OBEGALx and when did this become a story about Asterix in Gaul?OBEGAL is a painful acronym standing for Operating Balance Before Gains and Losses. It is a means of measuring the Crown’s surplus. All revenue less all expenses.
Willis has reduced the bleeding by three and a half billion a year. This is good news.It means that the ship is not sinking as fast as we’d expected. But the ship is still sinking. But there is more bad news than good here.
In 2023, when Grant Roberston was in charge, the Crown spending was 40.3% of our GDP. In 2025 it has shrunk impressively to 42.1%. It is forecast to fall from there but, well, fiscal spending is like my pant sizes. They only ever seem to go in one direction.
Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers’ Union and a regular opinion contributor for Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective
Two devious weavers dupe the sovereign into purchasing a suit that does not exist. They dress him with extravagant care in nothing but his own fancy and none of his subjects dare to confront him with the reality; that he is wearing nothing other than his vanity.
As he marches down the avenue of his capital the spell is broken by an urchin who comments that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes. Something that everyone can see but none were willing to state.
Last week it was the role of the Taxpayers Union to play the role of the truth-telling boy by pointing out that the magnificent cloak of fiscal prudence that the Minister of Finance has wrapped around herself is an illusion.
This brought the ire of the Beehive because the Taxpayers Union is meant to be an ally of fiscally conservative governments. And here is the shock. They are.
Last week Treasury released the half-Yearly Economic Update. There is a lot of data to process and some good news for the minister of finance. In the December 2024 forecast OBEGALx was projected to be short 12.9 billion in fiscal 2025. Treasury records the shortfall was only 9.3.
Wait. Wait is an OBEGALx and when did this become a story about Asterix in Gaul?OBEGAL is a painful acronym standing for Operating Balance Before Gains and Losses. It is a means of measuring the Crown’s surplus. All revenue less all expenses.
Willis has reduced the bleeding by three and a half billion a year. This is good news.It means that the ship is not sinking as fast as we’d expected. But the ship is still sinking. But there is more bad news than good here.
In 2023, when Grant Roberston was in charge, the Crown spending was 40.3% of our GDP. In 2025 it has shrunk impressively to 42.1%. It is forecast to fall from there but, well, fiscal spending is like my pant sizes. They only ever seem to go in one direction.
New Zealand deserve a better plan that what
Minister of Finance Nicola Willis has delivered,
writes Grant. Photo: Alex Cairns / Stuff
To quote Treasury: “The operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx) is forecast to deteriorate to a deficit of $13.9 billion in 2025/26. …. This will be the largest OBEGALx deficit as a share of GDP since the 2019/20 year.”
You can see why the board of the Taxpayers Union, which includes the mother of all monetary hawks, The Honourable Ruth Richardson, is pointing out that the fiscally prudent korowai Mrs Willis has cloaked herself in exists only in her imagination.
And since we are talking about obelisks, what does the x stand for? X, dear reader, hides the unravelling catastrophe of the Accident Compensation Scheme which managed to lose just $1.5 billion last year. This is considered a success after dropping $7 billion the year before thanks in part to some negative court judgements and in part because the model is broken.
The only minister willing to tackle this crisis was Andrew Bayly, who was forced to resign because Christopher Luxon did not have the mana to defend one of his few competent ministers from a complaint that, perhaps, was never filed. So. Rather than address the failure at ACC Minister Willis drapes another invisibility cloak and hopes no one notices.
The Taxpayers Union noticed and has been handing out fudge to bring the matter to our attention.
The figures do show improvement in the coming years but not due to spending restraint. Quoting Treasury again: “Core Crown tax revenue is forecast to rise as a share of GDP, from 27.3% in 2025/26 to 28.4% in 2029/30. This is largely driven by an improvement in the economy and the effect of wage growth moving people into higher tax bands.
Spending as a share of GDP is poised to fall primarily because Treasury is hoping that Santa will being a surge in economic growth although there isn’t any positive reason to assume this is based on anything other than wishful thinking.
Willis is running massive deficits during a time of relative economic calm; indeed Stats NZ tells us that the economy is growing again but the deficits remain forever.
To put this into perspective; we currently spend ten billion on interest and 22 on education. By 2030, under the Willis’s plan, we will be spending 15.5 billion in interest and 23 on education. New Zealand deserves a better plan......The full article is published HERE
To quote Treasury: “The operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx) is forecast to deteriorate to a deficit of $13.9 billion in 2025/26. …. This will be the largest OBEGALx deficit as a share of GDP since the 2019/20 year.”
You can see why the board of the Taxpayers Union, which includes the mother of all monetary hawks, The Honourable Ruth Richardson, is pointing out that the fiscally prudent korowai Mrs Willis has cloaked herself in exists only in her imagination.
And since we are talking about obelisks, what does the x stand for? X, dear reader, hides the unravelling catastrophe of the Accident Compensation Scheme which managed to lose just $1.5 billion last year. This is considered a success after dropping $7 billion the year before thanks in part to some negative court judgements and in part because the model is broken.
The only minister willing to tackle this crisis was Andrew Bayly, who was forced to resign because Christopher Luxon did not have the mana to defend one of his few competent ministers from a complaint that, perhaps, was never filed. So. Rather than address the failure at ACC Minister Willis drapes another invisibility cloak and hopes no one notices.
The Taxpayers Union noticed and has been handing out fudge to bring the matter to our attention.
The figures do show improvement in the coming years but not due to spending restraint. Quoting Treasury again: “Core Crown tax revenue is forecast to rise as a share of GDP, from 27.3% in 2025/26 to 28.4% in 2029/30. This is largely driven by an improvement in the economy and the effect of wage growth moving people into higher tax bands.
Spending as a share of GDP is poised to fall primarily because Treasury is hoping that Santa will being a surge in economic growth although there isn’t any positive reason to assume this is based on anything other than wishful thinking.
Willis is running massive deficits during a time of relative economic calm; indeed Stats NZ tells us that the economy is growing again but the deficits remain forever.
To put this into perspective; we currently spend ten billion on interest and 22 on education. By 2030, under the Willis’s plan, we will be spending 15.5 billion in interest and 23 on education. New Zealand deserves a better plan......The full article is published HERE
Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers’ Union and a regular opinion contributor for Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective
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