But I reckon this year is different. If Opportunity plays this right, they might just do it.
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll had them at 6%.
Now, I don’t know how much stock I put in that poll because it was very volatile. National went up 5% and Labour went down 7.5%.
Swings that big have got to be questioned because they don’t seem credible.
But this is now a trend for Opportunity. They are now close to, or over, 5% in multiple polls and knocking off 5% is the one thing they must do.
It's the biggest hurdle for a new party. Voters don’t want to vote for a party if they think it’s not going to make it in. It’s a weird part of our voter psyche that makes no sense.
But never mind – it might not matter for Opportunity if they can keep polling this high.
I reckon they are benefiting from the same thing NZ First is at the moment: frustration.
Like with Pauline Hanson, Nigel Farage, and Donald Trump, voters are so frustrated by regular politicians ignoring them and their concerns for decades.
That's why they want to blow things up, break up the supermarket duopoly, break up the gentailers, buy back the BNZ, and stop the immigration.
For voters on the right, NZ First is their "blow it up" party.
For voters on the left, it’s Opportunity.
They’re the party for voters frustrated by Labour never being brave enough to do anything bold and for voters frustrated by the Greens being too weird.
Opportunity is a radical left-wing party with a land tax and a universal basic income, fronted by a nice lady from Auckland.
If they can play this right, if that polling holds up, 2026 might just, to coin a phrase on this show, be their year.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and radio broadcaster who hosts Newstalk ZB's weekday Drive-Time Show – where this article was sourced.
4 comments:
TOP is not a Pauline Hanson or a Nigel Farage type party.
It is another version of the Green Party.
Amazing that some of the other small parties which offered real change, dropped by the wayside but this one reached 6%.
Do people actually know what they are voting for?
NZ does not need "another" radical left wing fruit loop mess to clean up.
Way too soon for anything like this-it’s only 1 poll , and Roy Morgan leans left.
TOP in New Plymouth is fielding a candidate who was a mayoral candidate last year and came well behind, with her appeal being a woman, part-Maori and wanting all Green issues pushed. I expected her to stand for the Greens. Local MSM is enthusiastic butLabour has chosen a woman of similar bent and very woke as its candidate which could see votes split. The gay former MP defeated in the last election got back in on the list andwill not be contesting the seat directly. The incumbent Nat is part-Maori and is almost ignored by msm. If the Greens field a candidate I will be surprised. Looking at TOP candidates so far they appeal seems to be to younger comfortably off voters rather than the Greens mixture. TOP is the same, transfer wealth in large dollops and gradually disposses people of their house through levies.
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