Dave Witherow: Power Pressure

There was a time when we used to be rich – number three in the world pecking order. Now, at number 63, and sinking fast, we are approaching the status of a third-world backwater. Poverty is widespread, and many New Zealanders are unable to afford the basics of existence. Electricity, for example – which used to cheap, is now so expensive that in the last year alone some 20,000 households had their power cut off at least once – despite government subsidies which last winter topped half a billion dollars. People are taking out loans to pay their power bills, sinking deeper into debt, while the power companies, (which we used to own) rack up about four billion profit per annum.

It wasn’t always like this.

For more than a century New Zealand had an integrated electricity grid, providing reliable power that was, by world standards, remarkably cheap. It was also, since most of it was derived from Hydro, endlessly renewable. And, best of all, it was 99% owned by ourselves.

Then came the Max Bradford “reforms” of 1998, whereby the system was fragmented, and made available to private ownership. There was considerable opposition - but not to worry, Max assured us, because we’ll still own 51% - which, in theory, ought to have allowed us to retain control. But in practice it didn’t, because the government, ever mindful of the interests of big business, allows the minority owners almost total latitude to operate as a de facto monopoly - with a thin veneer of fake competition.

To call this a reform is an abuse of the language. Far from delivering cheaper power, the Bradford programme achieved the opposite, as many critics at the time had accurately predicted.

Our society – our civilisation – has been based on the availability of cheap energy. Originally it was from coal, then oil and gas, and later from various sources of electricity. That fundamental equation hasn’t changed, and there’s still no slackening in our our appetite for power. We encourage immigration – more, proportionately, than any other country in the world. And all these new settlers must be provided with an entire suite of goods and services – food, housing, water, roads, sewage and rubbish disposal, and, of course, electricity. Auckland alone is making arrangements for a million new houses – a figure that may need revision following Mr Luxon’s generous opening of our borders to India.

For the foreseeable future, if this trend continues, much more power will have to be produced. Which means more windmills, solar panels, geothermal turbines, and Hydro stations. And while some of these are now being built, it’s a challenging exercise, because wind and solar, being intermittent, aren’t entirely dependable, and all the best Hydro-sites have already been exploited.

Historically we have been able to cope, but now, in addition to runaway population-growth we have the fast-looming threat of global climate-change. The planet is warming, the ice-caps are melting, and small Pacific nations, as their surrounding oceans inexorably rise, may soon be going underwater.

These obviously are not minor problems, and to avert disaster we must ban the use of fossil fuels. Petrol and diesel will have to go – and by the same token we must phase out the burning of coal or gas - which, given that we have considerable reserves of these, will be a sacrifice felt for a long time to come.

But there’s no alternative, and our Prime Minister, Mr Luxon, is fully committed to going all-electric - even if it sinks what’s left of the economy.

The switch-over, however, isn’t going all that well. There was a degree of enthusiasm early on, boosted by government subsidies, plus sober reminders of what would happen if we didn’t get on with it. And while many people may actually have believed this, they’re mostly still driving those old fossil-guzzling Earth-wrecking bangers.

It’s been very disappointing, this national refusal to act responsibly. Our reputation has been suffering internationally, and if people continue to shirk their duty, a degree of compulsion may be unavoidable.

Not quite yet though. Our dedication, needless to say, remains unaltered, and we’ll do the right thing as soon as we can. But now we have a bit of a breathing-space – a period of grace, you might say, because the sad fact is that we don’t have the juice – the watts and gigawatts – to fire up a new climate-friendly transport system.

No-one should underestimate the enormous difficulties in replacing oil and gas with electricity – especially as we have the population-growth to handle as well. We’ll need to at least double our existing supply. But there’s no way out of it, because New Zealand, more than most countries, has been a major contributor to heating the planet – all those Vee-Eights belching carbon dioxide, and all those farting sheep and cattle. As Mr Luxon constantly reminds us, it’s way past time we pulled our socks up.

And this is where it really gets interesting. This is where we glimpse our plucky little nation’s remarkable ability to see past the problems of the day, and grasp opportunities for the future. Soon – probably as early as the year after next - New Zealand’s first mega-capacity data-centre will come on-stream – re-establishing our place among the technological elite.

What a stunning coup for Mr Luxon and his allies in government. And what a demonstration of our famous number-eight-wire mentality – that, faced with an already-enormous challenge, we immediately load ourselves with an even bigger one.

The first of these futuristic installations, already underway at Makarewa, near Invercargill, will require 280 megawatts. Which, to put things in perspective, is about the same as supplying another Wellington City. And when phase two eventually comes in, it will need an entire gigawatt – nearly twice as much as the Rio Tinto Aluminium Smelter, just down the road at Bluff.

People with long memories will remember the Smelter, our first really serious attempt at Thinking Big - and such a tremendous boon to New Zealand’s economy that Prime Minister John Key, a few years back, slipped its owners thirty million to please, please, don’t go away.

Mr Key was successful. The Smelter is still in operation, consuming 572 megawatts – which, together with the data centre when it reaches full capacity, will account for third or more of all the power are now producing. The data-centre alone will take half of the South Island’s output - but again not to worry, because, as one senior power company executive pointed out, the new facility will be a base-load consumer. It will run all the time, and pay its bills regularly, just like the smelter, and the consequent income-stream will allow us to invest in more wind-farms and solar panels. So that’s all right then.

In a sane society none of this would happen. People would ask questions, do a few basic sums, discuss the situation with their friends and neighbours, and then, with as little delay as possible, get rid of every technocratic vandal even remotely involved.

Years ago, when we used to have a Green Party – a real Green party – it seemed we were beginning to see beyond the delusory notion that we could have more of everything ad infinitum. There was an awareness, back then, that the Earth was finite, and that unrestrained growth, in Edward Abbey’s words, was the ideology of the cancer cell. Every high-school biology student, a generation back, was supposed to know this.

Now they don’t. Now, in an era conditioned to mass entertainment, obligatory medication, and free-floating ignorance, it’s off the agenda. It would be inconvenient to the big corporations. It would put a spike in the ever-expanding Ponzi scheme of Western finance. And, perhaps most significantly, it would halt the construction of the vast, overweening, electronic Panopticon that before long – facilitated by these splendid new data centres - will ensnare us all and be impossible to escape.

We live in a beautiful country, with a temperate climate, and more than enough resources for everyone now living here. We could sustain this indefinitely, these fertile farmlands, rivers and forests. We could learn something from the mistakes of others, from the greed-driven, terminal madness of our myopic leaders. We could wake up one morning, breathe the clean fresh air, and resume the only human project worth aspiring to – the creation of a healthy, educated, civilised nation.

But as you know, and I know, we won’t.

Dave Witherow, who emigrated to New Zealand from Northern Ireland in 1971, is a columnist, author, script writer, and former scientist for Fish and Game.