Many older New Zealanders are nostalgic for the 1970s. But 1973 saw 843 people die on the roads, the worst road toll on record. Of every 1,000 babies born in 1970, almost 17 died before their first birthday. More than a third of adults smoked. The top income tax rate was 60%, and inflation was about to slip its leash.
Not everything has improved since then, of course. A country that ranked third in the world for income per head in the 1950s ranked 37th by 2024. The productivity gap with the top half of the OECD has widened from 34% in 1996 to about 40%. School results have been sliding for a quarter of a century.
So, are we a country in decline or a success story? The honest answer is neither. It’s a mixed bag. The only way to see that is to stop trusting memory and check the record.
That is what my colleague Bryce Wilkinson and I have done in New Zealand by Numbers, published this week. The book traces more than a hundred measures of New Zealand life, most reaching back to 1970 and beyond. Only the long view reveals the trend.
Some findings will surprise pessimists. Life expectancy has risen by almost eleven years since 1970. Last year’s provisional road toll was 272, with far more people driving far more cars. And of every 1,000 babies born last year, four died before their first birthday, not 17.
Other findings should unsettle the complacent. Houses still cost far too much, though the charts are beginning to show what happens now that we are finally letting people build. School results continue to worry us more than anything else in the book. And each year, our ageing population requires fewer workers to support more retirees.
Countries do not decline or improve in one piece. They do both at once, in different places, at different speeds, and usually too slowly for anyone to notice.
The good old days are in the book – but they were probably not quite as good as you remember.
So, are we a country in decline or a success story? The honest answer is neither. It’s a mixed bag. The only way to see that is to stop trusting memory and check the record.
That is what my colleague Bryce Wilkinson and I have done in New Zealand by Numbers, published this week. The book traces more than a hundred measures of New Zealand life, most reaching back to 1970 and beyond. Only the long view reveals the trend.
Some findings will surprise pessimists. Life expectancy has risen by almost eleven years since 1970. Last year’s provisional road toll was 272, with far more people driving far more cars. And of every 1,000 babies born last year, four died before their first birthday, not 17.
Other findings should unsettle the complacent. Houses still cost far too much, though the charts are beginning to show what happens now that we are finally letting people build. School results continue to worry us more than anything else in the book. And each year, our ageing population requires fewer workers to support more retirees.
Countries do not decline or improve in one piece. They do both at once, in different places, at different speeds, and usually too slowly for anyone to notice.
The good old days are in the book – but they were probably not quite as good as you remember.
Download ‘New Zealand by Numbers – 2026 Edition’ from our website and listen to Oliver and Bryce discuss their book on our podcast.
Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was sourced HERE
4 comments:
I recall the 90's as being a time of productivity.
After the 1987 crash and before the Asian/Millenium crash.
Is there a cycle?
Apologies for frivolity K, but there is a cycle, and it is electric, and its use, together with that of scooters and ordinary bikes will save the planet from over-warming and may even help productivity; not.
A general wage order of I seem to recall 20% around 1970 triggered money mayhem. Perfectly illustrated the wisdom of rejecting the recent proposed huge female pay escalation. A typical house in west Auckland doubled in price to $20,000 in 3 or so years.. (Same now $800,000.plus)
Of course, there was a time some centuries back when NZ was more edenic, and those that lived here respected and nurtured the environment as much as they did each other. In very much more recent times, not only have we experienced longer life expectancies, but with the joys of progressivism and revision, we have also seen recorded the greatly increased output from the usage of rose-tinted spectacles.
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