Frank Newman: Election 2026 - The electorates to watch on election night

Unlike previous general elections, the electorate results are likely to determine the next government. When a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitlement allows, it retains those additional seats, creating an overhang. In this election, the Maori Party will almost certainly create an overhang, but for the first time since MMP was introduced in 1996, it may also apply to National.

Of the 71 electorate seats, 58 appear safe, barring any major shift in election dynamics during the final days of the campaign or significant errors in the polling data.

These predictions take account of boundary changes and assume that the decline in National’s party vote (down eight percentage points since the 2023 election) will not be significant enough to change the outcome in the safe electorates. That seems a reasonable assumption, given that a majority of National’s lost support appears to have shifted to its coalition partners, which are generally not actively campaigning for the electorate vote, apart from ACT in its two seats.

The electorates I consider safe are:

National (37): Botany, Coromandel, East Cape, East Coast Bays, Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Ilam, Invercargill, Kaikōura, Kaipara ki Mahurangi, Maungakiekie, Mt Maunganui, Napier, New Plymouth, North Shore, Northcote, Northland, Pakuranga, Papakura, Port Waikato, Rangitata, Rangitīkei, Rotorua, Selwyn, Southland, Takanini, Taranaki-King Country, Taupō, Tauranga, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, Waikato, Waimakariri, Waitaki, Whanganui, Whangaparāoa and Whangārei.

Labour (13): Christchurch Central, Christchurch East, Dunedin, Glendene, Henderson, Kenepuru, Māngere, Manurewa, Ōtāhuhu, Palmerston North, Remutaka, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga.

Māori Party (4): Hauraki-Waikato, Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki.

Greens (3): Auckland Central, Wellington Bays and Wellington North.

ACT (1): Epsom.

In summary, my assessment of the 58 safe electorates gives National 37 seats, Labour 13, the Māori Party four, the Greens three and ACT one.

Marginal electorates

Attention on election night will turn to the 13 marginal electorates. These are: Banks Peninsula, Hutt South, Kāpiti, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, Nelson, Tāmaki, Wairarapa, Waitākere, West Coast, Wigram, Taieri and Te Tai Tokerau (Māori).
Here's some background on each.

Banks Peninsula
Banks Peninsula is National's most marginal electorate, won by Vanessa Weenink in 2023 by just 396 votes over Labour’s Tracey McLellan. Both are again contesting the seat. Weaker party support for National, combined with split voting by Green supporters, may well see McLellan come out ahead. .

Hutt South
Hutt South is held by Chris Bishop (National), who defeated Labour's Ginny Andersen by 1,332 votes in 2023. The two are going head-to-head again. Boundary changes have added Newlands and Woodridge, formerly in Wellington Central, and transferred Epuni to Remutaka. The net effect has slightly reduced Bishop's margin.
Winston Peters has sent a clear message to NZ First voters to support Bishop with their electorate vote. In 2023, around 45% of NZ First voters split their vote. That figure may need to be closer to 100% (representing around 1,000 votes) if Bishop is to retain the seat. Ironically, it is split voting by ACT and NZ First supporters that could save the seat for Bishop and National. Given the boundary changes, it could go either way.

Kāpiti
Boundary changes have transformed what was a comfortable National victory in Ōtaki in 2023 into a competitive race. The new electorate loses the more rural Horowhenua area and gains northern Porirua communities previously in Labour-held Mana. That changes what was a 6,271-vote majority for National into a very tight race. National's Tim Costley is defending the seat against Labour's Sophie Handford, a Kāpiti Coast district councillor. The contest brings together an incumbent MP with an established parliamentary profile and a challenger with a strong local-government background. Another that is too close to call.
Mt Albert
The most marginal electorate in the country. Labour retained the seat by just 18 votes in 2023. Labour's Helen White is again facing National's Melissa Lee, alongside Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March and Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong.
Boundary changes slightly favour Labour, but the two high-profile minor-party candidates may draw votes away from White. Split voting by NZ First and ACT supporters may assist Lee.
Various dynamics make this too close to call. A Curia poll suggested the race between White and Lee was within the margin of error.

Mt Roskill
Mt Roskill is a rematch between National's Carlos Cheung and Labour's Michael Wood. Cheung won the electorate from Wood in 2023 by 1,564 votes, ending Labour's long hold on the seat. Wood, a former Labour cabinet minister, is not on the party list. Boundary changes complicate the comparison. They bring additional National-leaning areas around Blockhouse Bay into the electorate, which on paper would increase Cheung's margin. It could go either way.

Nelson
The second most marginal seat in the country. Labour's Rachel Boyack retained the seat in 2023 by just 26 votes over National's Blair Cameron. The two are facing each other again. National’s decline in party support may affect Cameron’s challenge, but ACT’s strong showing in this electorate could tip the balance back in his favour. In 2023, ACT received 4,428 party votes but only 2,692 candidate votes. That leaves a significant number of voters who could support National's candidate, particularly if ACT supporters follow the call to give their electorate vote to National.
Too close to call.
Taieri
Taieri is a traditionally Labour-held electorate where National came within 1,443 votes of victory in 2023. The electorate stretches from Dunedin's southern suburbs through Mosgiel and the Taieri Plains towards Balclutha, incorporating both urban Labour-supporting communities and more rural areas. This year is a repeat of the 2023 contest between Labour’s Ingrid Leary and National’s Matthew French.

Tāmaki
On paper, this should be a safe seat for ACT. The popular Brooke van Velden defeated National’s Simon O'Connor by 4,158 votes in 2023, despite National receiving 52% of the party vote and ACT just 12%. Neither is standing again. The contest is now between ACT’s James Christmas and National's Mahesh Muralidhar. Christmas is a former senior adviser to National minister Chris Finlayson and co-author, with Finlayson, of a book on Treaty matters. Both parties are campaigning strongly for the seat.
Boundary changes slightly reduce ACT’s margin. Strategic voting may see some who supported van Velden in 2023 switch to Muralidhar, potentially making this a close contest.
A win for National could add a seat to National’s overhang. A win for ACT would make no difference to the total seats held by the right bloc. A recent Curia poll put Muralidhar ahead of Christmas 42% to 24%.

Wairarapa
Another 2023 rematch, with National's Mike Butterick defending the seat against Labour's Kieran McAnulty. The contest has an additional dimension: former NZ First minister Ron Mark is also standing, potentially eroding Butterick’s vote. Boundary changes have made little difference to the electorate's historical political balance, leaving the contest largely dependent on changes in voter support since 2023 and the personal appeal of the candidates.
Butterick has a majority of 2,816 votes, but that may not be enough to counter the challenge from the high-profile McAnulty and the presence of Ron Mark. Split voting by ACT and NZ First supporters may assist National.

Waitākere
The new Waitākere electorate replaces parts of the former New Lynn and Kelston electorates. National won New Lynn in 2023 by 1,013 votes, when Paulo Garcia defeated Labour's Deborah Russell.
Boundary changes swing the seat in Labour’s favour, although only marginally. With Paulo Garcia retiring and Russell standing as a list-only candidate for Labour, the contest features two new faces: Labour's Vanushi Walters and National's Agnes Loheni.Another result that is likely to be close.

West Coast
West Coast–Tasman is an open-seat contest following National MP Maureen Pugh's retirement and Damien O’Connor's decision to contest Waitaki after relocating to Dunedin in 2025.
Pugh won the seat in 2023 by 1,017 votes. The main contenders are Katie Milne for National, a former president of Federated Farmers and a West Coast dairy farmer, and Rory Paterson for Labour, a teacher with connections to Reefton and Greymouth. The profile of National's candidate may be enough to retain the seat, but the electorate remains marginal.

Wigram
Wigram is a longstanding Labour electorate in southwest Christchurch, but significant boundary changes have, on paper, shifted the advantage from Labour to National. The more right-leaning areas of Prebbleton and Templeton have been transferred into Wigram from Selwyn, while the traditionally Labour-leaning communities of Addington and Spreydon have moved into Christchurch Central. Labour’s Megan Woods has held the seat since 2011 but is now standing as a list-only candidate. The contest is between Labour newcomer Dominik Yanzick and National's returning candidate Tracy Summerfield.

Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Tokerau is an unusual four-way contest, with the incumbent MP now standing under a different party banner and three other candidates competing for the electorate vote. Mariameno Kapa-Kingi won the seat for Te Pāti Māori in 2023 with a majority of just 517 votes. Hūhana Lyndon is a sitting Green list MP and former chief executive of the Ngātiwai Trust Board, with strong family connections in the Māori community. Willow-Jean Prime is a sitting Labour list MP. She was removed from her education shadow portfolio following criticism of her performance. Aperahama Edwards is representing Te Pāti Māori. He is the chair of the Ngātiwai Trust Board. There is no clear standout, and the result has potential implications for the size of Parliament through the overhang provisions. A win by Prime or Lyndon would not affect the overhang. A win by Edwards or Kapa-Kingi would add one seat to an overhang for the left.