Let's deal with Chris Hipkins first.
Chippy's gone, right?
The only thing that's going to save him is if he somehow defies the odds and, against all expectations, wins enough seats through the recount and special votes in the next three weeks to form a majority with Opportunity. If, and only if, he becomes Prime Minister is his job safe.
If he doesn't, he's gone.
I mean, there is no way Labour can want to get spanked that badly in 2029. There's no way Labour can go into the 2029 election with Chris Hipkins. By then, he'd have already lost two elections for the party, especially not when his main contender, Michael Wood, has just been re-elected to Parliament.
And don't kid yourself that Michael Wood doesn't want the job. I asked him on air about taking it and he only told me to "calm the farm". He didn't say no.
Now let's deal with Chris Luxon.
I think he's safe, at least for now.
Even though the National Party only came in at 29 percent, which is nothing to be proud of, it's better than the 25 percent to 26 percent that a couple of the polls were predicting. Plus, that result is somewhat masked by the overhang, which supersizes National's numbers again.
Sure, he's lost a huge amount of authority through that low result, and he's lost a huge amount of authority by making himself look silly over Opportunity. And sure, he might yet have to make himself look even sillier by giving up some very juicy portfolios to his partners.
But National is probably, odds are, back in Government, which is the thing that matters most to them.
Plus, if you're going to roll a leader, there has to be an event that triggers it. A coup needs a catalyst. You need something that MPs are afraid of losing. That thing has just happened. It was the election.
There isn't another trigger on the horizon, at least in the short term.
I think Luxon is safe for at least a couple of years, which should give him enough time to bow out on his own terms and find himself a flash job if he wants one.
The rule is basically this: both Chrises will probably be gone by 2029, one much sooner than the other.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and radio broadcaster who hosts Newstalk ZB's weekday Drive-Time Show – where this article was sourced.
2 comments:
It used to be said of Arnold Schwarzenegger that he looked like a condom stuffed with walnuts. Luxon looks very similar, without the walnuts. Chippy looks like Alfred E Neumann from Mad Magazine, without the intelligence. Waititi resembles an explosion in a crayon factory. Cloe just looks mad as a snake. Winston looks the part but, like me, he’s 81and therefore past it. Seymour looks like a sixth form prefect and Qiulae looks like a loser.
Given that all politicians are basically useless, when Chippie and Luxo get rolled can’t we at least have some attractive replacements?
Luxon is becoming more insufferable if that is possible. His failings became very obvious in his first term as PM. We are now facing another three years of the same.
Luxon needs to resign and Chris Penk stand in the Botany seat. We then have some prospect of moving forward as a nation under Stanford & Chris Penk.
Chris Bishop’s time will come. Having twelve months sitting on the sidelines reenergising will be a good thing for us all.
Come on Luxon, look in the mirror and take a hike.
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