Unknown UK Politician Appointed President Of COP26 Climate Summit
In this newsletter:
1) Arctic Sea Ice Much More Resilient Than Thought
Meteorologist Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Inc., 12 February 2020
2) We Have A Winner: Tallest Climate Tale of 2019
Global Warming Policy Forum, 12 February 2020
3) The Tallest Climate Tale 2019: Is Carbon Dioxide Making It Harder To Think Straight?
Daily Mail, 20 December 2020
4) Unknown UK Politician Appointed President Of COP26 Climate Summit
The Guardian, 13 February 2020
5) Will The Car Industry Cave Or Fight UK’s Crazy Car Ban?
BBC News, 13 February 2020
6) Europe's Green Economies In Crisis: Germany, Italy And France Hit By Plummeting Factory Production
Daily Express 13 February 2020
7) Delingpole: Sorry, Michael Gove, But Americans Are Not Interested In Your Climate Obsession
James Delingpole, Breitbart, 13 February 2020
Full details:
1) Arctic Sea Ice Much More Resilient Than Thought
Meteorologist Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Inc., 12 February 2020
In recent years the Arctic sea ice has shown great resiliency and is currently at higher levels for this time of year when compared to all but two years going back to 2005.
While still at below-normal levels, Arctic sea ice extent is higher now than it has been during 13 of the last 15 years for this time of year with the only exceptions being 2009 and 2008; map courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center
Overview
Sea ice covers about 7% of the Earth’s surface and about 12% of the world’s oceans and forms mainly in the Earth’s polar regions. Specifically, much of the world’s sea ice is found within the Arctic ice pack of the Arctic Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere and the Antarctic ice pack of the Southern Ocean in the Southern Hemisphere. While the Antarctic sea ice extent is currently running at levels very close-to-normal, the Arctic sea ice extent is below-normal and has been running generally at below-normal levels since the middle 1990’s at which time there was a long-term phase shift from cold-to-warm in the North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature pattern. In recent years, however, the Arctic sea ice has actually shown great resiliency and is currently at higher levels for this time of year when compared to all but two years going back to 2005.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) monthly index values from 1960 to 2019 with negative (cold) sea surface temperature phases shown in blue and positive (warm) phases shown in red. A long-term phase shift from cold-to-warm took place in the middle 1990’s and Arctic sea ice extent flipped at that time from consistently above-normal levels to below-normal; AMO index data courtesy daculaweather.com
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a climate cycle that affects the sea surface temperature pattern of the North Atlantic Ocean on multidecadal timescales. The northern Atlantic Ocean switched sea surface temperature phases from cold-to-warm back in the middle 1990’s and this shift was directly correlated with the flipping of Arctic sea ice extent from above-normal levels at that time to generally below-normal thereafter until present. The sea surface temperature phase in the northern Atlantic Ocean is tracked by meteorologists with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and it has generally been in a positive (warm) phase since the middle 1990’s. In those initial years after the AMO phase shift, the Arctic sea ice extent dropped rather steadily. Over the past several years, however, the Arctic sea ice extent has stabilized with much more of a sideways trend as compared with the clear downward trend of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.
Arctic sea ice extent (solid blue line in circled region) is currently below the 1981-2010 median (solid gray line) for this time of year, but it has been quite resilient in recent years and is now within the interdecile range (light shade of gray) and above the record minimum year of 2012 (red dashed line); map courtesyNational Snow and Ice Data Center
Polar vortex
This winter season has been rather favorable for the build-up of ice in the Arctic region with sustained cold and sea ice extent actually currently exceeds all but two years (2008, 2009) going back to 2005 at this stage of the winter season. This winter season has been somewhat typical for the Arctic region with overall temperatures for December and January not far from normal. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that the polar vortex has been stationed over the polar region more often than not this winter season. A polar vortex is a low-pressure system of cold polar air – a normal weather phenomenon – but in some recent winter seasons such as 2013-2014, this feature was occasionally displaced to lower latitudes or even broken up into multiple pieces. The result of this change to the more typical positioning and/or magnitude of the polar vortex in the winter of 2013-2014 was for abnormally cold air to frequently push into North America and, often times in that particular winter, there was less sustained harsh cold for the Arctic region compared to normal. Temperature anomalies for December and January of this winter season of 2019-2020 show overall fairly close-to-normal temperatures over the Arctic region with pockets of above-normal (e.g., near the North Pole) and below-normal (e.g., Alaska, Greenland) whereas the winter season of 2013-2014 featured generally above-normal temperatures throughout the polar region. One thing to note is that even above-normal temperatures during the Arctic winter season will be well below the freezing mark allowing for some buildup of ice in the region. The Arctic sea ice extent will typically reach a yearly peak during the latter part of their winter season which ends in late March.
Temperature anomalies are shown for the Arctic region for the December/January time periods from this winter season of 2019-2020 (left) and 2013-2014 (right). Overall temperatures were relatively close-to-normal this past and January (white represents normal), but averaged above-normal (yellow, green, red) during the same two months in the winter of 2013-2014 when the polar vortex was occasionally displaced to lower latitudes or broken up into multiple pieces. Maps courtesy NOAA/NCEP, NCAR reanalysis
Sideways trend in Arctic sea ice volume since 2010
In addition to sea ice extent, an important climate indicator to monitor is sea ice volume as it depends on both ice thickness and extent. Arctic sea ice volume cannot currently be observed on a continuous basis as observations from satellites, submarines and field measurements are all limited in space and time. As a result, one of the best ways to estimate sea ice volume is through the usage of numerical models which utilize all available observations.
One such computer model from the University of Washington is called the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) and it is showing a sideways trend in Arctic sea ice volume since around 2010 which followed a downward trend since the AMO phase shift in the middle 1990’s.
Antarctic sea ice extent (solid blue line in circled region) is currently very close to the 1981-2010 median (solid gray line) for this time of year and well above the record minimum year of 2017(red dashed line). Map courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center
Full post
2) We Have A Winner: Tallest Climate Tale of 2019
Global Warming Policy Forum, 12 February 2020
We have been deliberating hard, and have decided upon a winner for our competition.
At the start of the year, we asked GWPF readers to send us nominations for our search to find the tallest climate tale of 2019. You have not let us down, sending us in entries from around the world.
An honourable mention must go to last year’s winner, Andrew Kissling, from New Zealand, who delivered the goods yet again. Amongst his excellent entries were an article claiming child marriage was increasing because of climate change, and that chips are now an inch shorter, and climate change is to blame.
However, topping the list this year was Ron Clutz, who many of you may be familiar with from his blog, Science Matters. The judges felt that his entry captured perfectly the absurdity of today’s climate change debate.
The article claimed that rational thought itself may become a victim of climate change. We at the GWPF know that rational discussion about climate change is already very rare.
Congratulations to Ron, who wins a bottle of whisky and two GWPF books (Population Bombed and The Polar Bear Catastrophe that Never Happened).
3) The Tallest Climate Tale 2019: Is Carbon Dioxide Making It Harder To Think Straight?
Daily Mail, 20 December 2020
Rational thought may eventually become a victim climate change according to a new study.
Research presented by scientists at the annual American Geophysical Union and submitted to the journal GeoHealth suggests that increased CO2 may soon diminish humans' capacity to think clearly.
The findings follow previous studies that show how indoor air pollution and poor ventilation can hinder people's ability to perform mentally, including a study published last year from the University College London.
'Human cognitive performance declines with an increase in CO2', the researchers wrote in the paper.
Those studies concluded that circulating air and regulating the amount of CO2 trapped in a room can help mitigate the effects of too much CO2, but new research suggests ventilation in a climate change-addled future might just make matters worse.
To study the effects, scientists looked at how increased CO2 levels might impact a typical classroom, factoring in an average number of students, the physical size of the class, as well as normal ventilation rates.
It also used two different climate models - one that factors in reductions in CO2 and another that projects conditions if emissions continue unfettered.
Full story
4) Unknown UK Politician Appointed President Of COP26 Climate Summit
The Guardian, 13 February 2020
Alok Sharma, the former international development secretary, is the surprise choice to take on the role of president of the crunch UN climate talks to be hosted by the UK this November.
He has also been made business secretary as part of Boris Johnson’s cabinet reshuffle.
Sharma has garnered praise from campaigners for his role at the Department for International Development, but will face an uphill task after nearly two weeks of trouble surrounding the post of Cop26 president.
The former energy minister Claire O’Neill was abruptly sacked from the role and unleashed a vitriolic attack on Johnson, while several other high-profile figures including David Cameron and William Hague turned down the role.
Sharma has a mixed record on voting on green issues in parliament. The Guardian’s Polluters project scored MPs on how they swung on a range of key votes. Sharma scored only 15%, a poor showing, as he was present for 13 votes affecting climate and environmental issues, but voted positively on only two of them.
Since 2010 he has been MP for Reading West, to the west of London and just over 20 miles from Heathrow, and he has both opposed and publicly favoured Heathrow expansion.
TheyWorkForYou, which rates MPs on their voting records, found he “generally voted against measures to prevent climate change”.
In the record of MPs’ interests, he has received a donation of £15,000 from Offshore Group Newcastle, which makes platforms for oil, gas and wind energy companies.
However, he has used his role at DfID to promote action on the climate crisis, by assisting developing countries to improve their resilience to the impacts of extreme weather, and tackling issues such as deforestation and clean energy. Last October, he urged the World Bank to focus more of its funding on the climate crisis.
Full story
5) Will The Car Industry Cave Or Fight UK’s Crazy Car Ban?
BBC News, 13 February 2020
The boss of Ford Europe has raised concerns about a possible 2032 ban on petrol, diesel and hybrid cars.
The date was suggested by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps as part of a range of potential dates the government was looking at.
Reflecting on the announcement, Mr Rowley said: "Plug-in hybrids can be an important part of technology mix."
He also called for more infrastructure investment for electric vehicles, including more access to chargers.
The potential 2032 ban, announced by Mr Shapps in a BBC interview, brings the date forward from 2035. This date had already been brought forward from 2040. Last week, the government also stated it is bringing plug-in hybrids into the ban "for the first time".
Speaking on Radio 5 live's Wake Up To Money, Mr Rowley called the target "hugely ambitious", adding:
"Whether we are going to achieve 2035 or 2032, it's going to require huge investment and for us to work together as an industry, the government, cities and consumers to make this transition."
Jim Holder, editorial director of Autocar publishers Haymarket Automotive, said: "Most manufacturers are spending hundreds of millions of pounds of investment, launching them [the cars] this year. All of a sudden they're having the rug pulled from under their feet.
"Of course that is terrible business, but it also undermines what they're trying to achieve. They want a stepping stone technology towards fully electric cars. They understand that consumers on the whole are very interested in electric cars but they aren't buying them. Just 1.6% of car sales last year were fully electric."
Full story
6) Europe's Green Economies In Crisis: Germany, Italy And France Hit By Plummeting Factory Production
Daily Express 13 February 2020
INDUSTRIAL production in the eurozone dropped dramatically in December, creating a gloomy outlook for the single currency area.
Factory output fell by 4.1 percent in the final month of the year compared with the same month a year earlier, according to figures published by Eurostat on Wednesday. Germany was among the states which suffered the most, as production dropped by 7.2 percent. Italy was close behind on a 4.3 percent decrease while France was down 3.2 percent.
The data released by the EU’s statistical office comes as economists revised down their predictions for eurozone economic growth in the current quarter.
Jessica Hinds at Capital Economics forecast the eurozone recession to continue in the coming months.
Full story
7) Delingpole: Sorry, Michael Gove, But Americans Are Not Interested In Your Climate Obsession
James Delingpole, Breitbart, 13 February 2020
Unilaterally decarbonising it — as seems to be Boris Johnson’s and Michael Gove’s wizard plane — must surely count among the most suicidally pointless plan ever devised by any government in history, especially by one wearing the ‘Conservative’ tag.
Michael Gove – the most powerful figure in the UK government after Boris Johnson – has made a speech berating President Donald Trump for not doing enough about ‘climate change.’
But Trump is unlikely to notice, let alone care. Most Americans just don’t see climate change as a credible problem.
Here is the evidence: a 2019 poll showing that for the 13th year running, ‘dealing with global climate change’ comes right near the bottom of Americans’ political priorities.
Top three concerns, according to the Pew Research Center were:
- Strengthening the economy
- Reducing health care costs
- Improving the education system
Laframboise concludes:
“Moral of the story: There has never been any evidence that climate change is a top concern for most Americans. This is not a crowd pleaser or a vote getter.”
This, in turn, has massive implications for the post-Brexit Special Relationship between Britain and the US.
If, as seems most likely, it will be a case of four more years of President Trump trying to forge links with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, then the two men are going to be pulling in opposite directions.
One, Trump, will be leading a fossil fuel economy — the world’s largest by energy production — benefiting from the massive competitive advantage of using cheap, abundant energy, freed (thanks to Trump) from the shackles of the Paris Climate Accord.
The other, Johnson, will be leading an economy which has chosen to prioritise virtue-signalling over efficiency, hobbled by any number of green targets, regulations, misallocations of capital and crony-capitalist boondoggles; crippled by needlessly high energy costs. And with his most able minister Michael Gove in charge — and rumoured to be the man chosen, inter alia, to head Britain’s hosting of the COP26 climate summit — it’s a racing certainty that Britain’s green-managed decline will be handled with great efficiency.
I’m really not sure that this was quite the post-Brexit vision Trump had in mind when he promised Britain a ‘fantastic’ and ‘very big’ trade deal once it managed to extricate itself from the European Union.
I’m fairly sure he had in mind that Britain would become a freebooting, free-market player in the manner of Trump’s America.
What I’m most certain he didn’t have in mind is that he’d be at the receiving end of finger-wagging lectures from Boris’s Chief Operating Officer Gove, as delivered at a conference of the mostly hard-left eco-loon gathering, the Green Alliance.
According to the Guardian‘s report:
Using his speech to call for concerted global action on the climate emergency at the summit, Gove noted the lack of efforts on the issue by President Trump and the Brazilian leader, Jair Bolsonaro.
“I shan’t mention any world leaders by name in a critical fashion,” he began. “However, it’s important in the United States and in Brazil that we recognise that there will be people, at the state and at the city level, who can play a vital role in driving change that we all need to see.”
Predicting that nonetheless COP 26 would be a success, Gove pointed to what he called “politically, a realisation of the scale of the challenge and the emergency” across the globe.
Trump’s America produces approximately 14 per cent of global CO2 emissions; Brazil about 1.5 per cent; India 7 per cent; and China nearly 30 per cent. Since none of these economies has any intention of “driving change” on the CO2 production front any time soon, it will put Boris Johnson’s attempts to take Britain’s economy Net Zero by 2050 into tragic, painful and embarrassing perspective.
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The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.
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