Breaking Views Update: Week of 25.10.26

Saturday October 31, 2026 

News:
New Zealand First commits to introducing bill forcing Ngāpuhi to sign Treaty settlement if in government
New Zealand First deputy leader Shane Jones has committed to introducing a bill forcing Ngāpuhi to sign a Treaty settlement in the first 100 days of the next government, if re-elected.

Jones made the commitment during TVNZ's Kaupapa Māori Debate on Thursday night, where he said he would "deal to it in the first hundred days after the election".

Peter Dunne: Political Polls

“National is now in a fight to save the furniture” screamed Radio New Zealand’s headline following the release of its latest poll this week.

The facts, however, tell a rather different story. We all know that individual opinion polls count for very little. They are but a snapshot in time, and not an indicator of a likely election outcome. And we should all know that the trend of polls over time is a much more reliable informant and indicator of a likely election outcome.

Richard Prebble: We need a new plan

National issued a press release headed “National’s plan is working”, welcoming the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold interest rates.

The Reserve Bank predicts inflation will reach 4.4 per cent by Christmas.

If that is National’s plan, we need a new one.

Kerre Woodham: Can you see a light at the end of the cost of living tunnel?

There's a story in the New Zealand Herald this morning about a young couple in Hawke's Bay who are earning good coin, above the average between them, but they're barely able to make ends meet. This is the cost of living election – at least that's what the media outlets are telling us. But I don't know if you heard Enda Brady on with Mike this morning. Have a listen to what he had to say around the British budget.

"People are worried about energy bills, cost of living, food. I went to the petrol station earlier on to get petrol, so I looked at the prices specifically for you, Mike. We are looking at $4.02 a litre for diesel, and I pay $3.52 for unleaded."

Bob Edlin: Alistair Boyce.....

.....the bloke whose (improbable) move from the Backbencher to the back benches has been blown away

If you have ever wondered what cannon fodder looks like in politics, check out the news from Hutt South today.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has urged NZ First supporters in that electorate to give their candidate votes to National’s Chris Bishop to ensure he retains the seat. He is focusing on securing the party vote for NZ First.

As RNZ tells it:

David Farrar: State broadcasters coverage of minor parties

An interesting analysis of time given to minor parties by the two state broadcasters is here.

My summary is:

David Farrar: The Greens are consistent

The only thing surprising about the Greens defending their attendance at a Mongrel Mob hui, is that people were surprised they attended.

The Greens have a very clear view. Co-leader Marama Davidson said “This is not new. It’s not new for the Green Party”[1] and she is right.

Their election justice policy[2] is even more radical than their stance that gangs are legitimate community organisations to engage with.

Nick Mowbray: Split your vote

The followed post was sourced from Nick Mowbray's X account

I am National’s largest donor. But that doesn’t mean I agree with them on everything including how you should vote.

National will tell you not to vote strategically. Like every party they have their own interests. My priority is a centre-right government.

If that’s your priority too my advice is clear: split your vote.

Mike's Minute: The Reserve Bank came to the party

Gold medal for Kelly Eckhold at Westpac.

He called it, or at least suggested the hold we saw from the Reserve Bank wasn't as "home run" as many might have predicted.

This, in a dry, old world of monetary policy, is little short of a blockbuster.

I guess you could argue the 4-3 vote is a good indication of the wider view.

 Friday October 30, 2026 

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Caleb Anderson: The Simplified Life: How the West Lost Its Mind to the Left Brain

It is interesting to reflect on whether ideas corrupt people, or people corrupt ideas. While inevitably a mix, we seem very often to lean toward the latter. The most dangerous thing you can do to an idea is to strip it of its context, and hence of its complexity.

Andy Loader: The Maori Economy

When does the extortion stop?

According to the latest figures that I have available from the March 2023 census New Zealand has 978,246 people registered as of Maori descent (19.6% of the total population). This shows an increase over the numbers in 2018, up from 18.5%.

Based on the Te Ōhanga Māori 2023 Report via Knowledge Auckland. I believe that the total Maori asset base is $126 billion (an 83% increase over the 2018 figure of $69 billion).

Colinxy: A Rabbit, Four Police Officers, and the Future Labour Wants for New Zealand

When mockery becomes policing, and speech becomes a matter for the State.

Recently in the United Kingdom, a 15‑year‑old boy found himself at the receiving end of four police officers after making fun of a local councillor on social media. His crimes allegedly included criticising the councillor’s clothing, comparing his appearance to a “rent boy”, and posting an edited image giving the politician rabbit ears. The teenager was arrested, fingerprinted, photographed, had DNA taken, and had electronic devices seized. Reports indicate police considered offences including harassment, malicious communications, and a possible hate crime[i].

Bob Edlin: “Freedom” group voices dismay at Dame Jacinda’s new job.....

....but what does a Professor of Practice do?

Big-wigs at the University of Sydney this week expressed their delight at hiring Dame Jacinda Ardern.

Their press release said:

Richard Prebble: The importance of being a smart voter

An Epsom National supporter asked whether he should vote for Paul Goldsmith.

Why would he?

National’s problem is not winning too few electorates. It is that it will win too many.

Kerre Woodham: Labour should stay away from housing policy

When I look at Labour's campaign and I look at National's campaign, it's like, look, I'll do it for you next time. Seriously, when something is being done so badly, you think, you know what? I can do that so much better. They've had shocking campaigns, both of the main parties. Just negative, silly stuff. And yesterday, Labour had an absolute clanger. Of all the issues and all the policies that Labour could have come up with to attract voters, to point out deficiencies in the Coalition Government, why on earth did they have to decide on housing as one of their last big pushes before the election?

David Farrar: A split OCR decision

The Reserve Bank announced:

The Monetary Policy Committee today voted 4 – 3 to hold the OCR at 2.75 percent. …

Global events are adding to near-term inflation pressures in New Zealand. Fuel prices have risen further because of ongoing disruptions in global energy markets, and the exchange rate has fallen by around 3 percent since early September. Annual inflation is expected to increase to 4.4 percent in the December quarter, largely reflecting current futures prices for fuel. Near-term inflation forecasts are uncertain given volatility in prices for oil and refined fuels.

David Farrar: TOP insiders speak out

The Herald reports:

Former Opportunity Party board members have spoken out about internal disarray and tribal politics as polling suggests the party may hold the balance of power after November’s election.

Speaking exclusively to the Herald, the former insiders have described a party plagued by a “toxic” and “nasty” culture, with sources feeling they were excluded, blocked from discussion and treated like outsiders when at odds with a “cliquey” faction of the party.

Rodney Hide: Two votes. Use them.

National Party pollster David Farrar had this to say this week on his blog: "There are two paths back into Parliament for Chris Bishop – a win in Hutt South, or the National Party having at least two list MPs. Both of these paths are looking far from certain right now."

That's about as big an admission that we are going to get that on present polling National will get no list MPs at all. National is polling below 30 percent, which means the 800,000 or so Kiwis who party vote National are not delivering one extra MP. They may as well not tick the party vote box.

Mike's Minute: Look at day one voting, there is no voter suppression

The figures keep defying the reality.

68,000 votes were cast on Monday.

That day was a problem according to the conspiracy theorists who suggested that not only had enrolling closed early, but the opening day of voting was a public holiday and for some reason voting on a day off may prove to be some sort of issue.