Saturday, March 28, 2020

Mike Butler: A lock-down, a model, and the flu

Evidence has emerged to show that the current lock-down that has crippled the New Zealand economy is based a possible scenario predicted in a model, the assumptions of which have been contradicted by expert medical opinion.

The model, created by British scientist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, predicted that 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. (1)

He said that that if the US and UK did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately three months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.

Breaking Views Update: Week of 22.03.20

Saturday March 28, 2020

Iwi enforce border protection across country
From the Far North to East Cape and Auckland, iwi have begun to put in place rāhui to protect their territories from infection by visitors or returning locals.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Robert Carling: The economic tragedy of COVID-19

The Covid-19 virus (CV-19) is first and foremost a health crisis. But it is fast becoming an economic crisis as well. Some observers are asking whether the economic damage will be greater than the health damage. One commentator observed that “we are deliberately destroying our economy to slow the spread.” 

When the health damage could involve a large scale death toll, many people will rush to the judgement that any economic cost is a price worth paying — even if they think about it at all. That seems to be the consensus so far — but it may not stay that way as the potential enormity of the cost becomes more visible by the day and people accustomed to freedom bridle at draconian restrictions tying them to their homes and shutting down their businesses.

Bob Edlin: Do iwi roadblocks signal a policing “partnership”?

The proposition that our Police are paving the way for a partnership in which former MP Hone Harawira and other iwi leaders police communities within the borders they define went unchallenged when put to press officers working for the Prime Minister and the Police.
The picture painted in the preceding paragraph was drawn from Deputy Police Commissioner Wally Haumaha’s statement on road blocks Harawira set up in Northland to check tourists’ health.  He declared:
” … we want to model what it looks like when iwi, police, councils and other agencies work in partnership”. 
But nether the Police nor the Prime Minister’s Office directly answered questions put to them by Point of Order about the legality of Harawira’s blocking public roads while policing the a border which he presumably established.

Garrick Tremain Cartoon: Newspapers!

 Here is Garrick Tremain's cartoon commentary on the state of newspapers in New Zealand today!


Matt Ridley: A vaccine for coronavirus isn't going to ride rapidly to our rescue

In 1934, in their spare time, two American biologists, Pearl Kendrick and Grace Eldering, developed a vaccine for whooping cough, then the biggest killer of children in the United States. Within four years their vaccine was being used throughout Michigan and within six it was being used nationwide. Whooping cough rapidly retreated.
Since then there have been spectacular advances in biology, including the identification of the genetic material, the ability to read its code, an understanding of the structure of viruses and the proteins from which they are made, plus knowledge of how immunity works. 
So why are we facing a wait of at least a year, maybe much more, for a vaccine for coronavirus? It has been one of the shocks of recent weeks to realise how little progress vaccine development has made. It’s still a bit of an art.

Karl du Fresne: Harawira's opportunistic try-on in the Far North

Let’s see if I’ve got this straight. Hone Harawira and his mates are manning checkpoints on main highways in the Far North to intercept tourists and turn them back, ostensibly to protect their people from Covid-19. He describes it as a border-closing exercise. 

And the police, whose statutory duty is to maintain law and order, appear to have meekly gone along with this brazen usurpation of their authority by a failed MP (he was tossed out by his own Maori voters in 2014) with no legal mandate whatsoever. 

So too, we are told, has the local mayor, former National MP John Carter.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

GWPF Newsletter: Diplomats Signal End Of Europe’s Green Deal In Attempt To Save EU Economy

US Democrats Retreat On Using Coronavirus Relief Bill For Green New Deal

In this newsletter:

1) Diplomats Signal End Of Europe’s Green Deal In Attempt To Save EU Economy
Reuters, 25 March 2020
2) Europe's Car Industry Faces Unprecedented Crisis, 14 Million Jobs At Stake
Autocar Professional, 25 March 2020

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

GWPF Newsletter: Coronavirus Has Killed Europe's Green Deal

U.N. Shifts Focus From Climate Change To Coronavirus

In this newsletter:

1) Coronavirus Throws EU’s Green Deal Into Disarray
Dave Keating, Forbes, 24 March 2020

2) EU Carbon Market Faces Collapse As Electricity Demands Drops
EurActiv, 24 March 2020

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

NZCPR Weekly: A Country in Lockdown

Dear NZCPR Reader,   

This week we look at the Government’s response to the COVID-19 epidemic and share details showing what New Zealand could have been doing to contain the virus without having to destroy our economy, our NZCPR Guest Commentator Professor Dale Fisher explains how Singapore has contained the virus without shutting the country down, and our poll asks whether you have confidence in Jacinda Ardern’s leadership over COVID-19.

*To read the newsletter click HERE.
*To register for the NZCPR Weekly mailing list, click HERE.

GWPF Newsletter: The Biggest CO2 Test Ever

Pandemic Crisis: Bavarian Prime Minister Calls For Suspension Of Carbon Tax & Green Energy Subsidies

In this newsletter:

1) Is the COVID-19 Economic Downturn Affecting Atmospheric CO2? Mauna Loa Data Say, Not Yet
Roy W. Spencer, 22 March 2020

2) Bavarian Prime Minister Calls For Suspension Of Carbon Tax & Green Energy Subsidies

Monday, March 23, 2020

Frank Newman: Lifeline for Air NZ as market crashes

For the second time in 20 years the government has bailed out Air New Zealand.

Last time was in 2002 when the government stumped up with $885 million - $300 million in interest bearing equity (preference shares) at 24 cents a share and $585 million in new shares at 27 cents. Interest was paid in new equity rather than cash. 

The effect was the Crown ended up with an 82% stake. The rescue followed the Company reporting a $1.425 billion loss after its ill-fated investment in Ansett Australia. It returned to profitability in 2003. 

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Matt Ridley: We are about to find out how robust civilisation is

The hardships ahead will be like nothing we have ever known.

On Sunday, lonely as a cloud, I wandered across a windswept moor in County Durham and passed a solitary sandstone rock with a small, round hollow in the top, an old penny glued to the base of the hollow. It is called the Butter Stone and it’s where, during the plague in 1665, coins were left in a pool of vinegar by the inhabitants of nearby towns and villages, to be exchanged with farmers for food. The idea was that the farmer or his customer approached the rock only when the other was at a safe distance.

Four modern coins were on the rock, anonymous offerings to the spirits of the moor. Never once in my six decades did I expect to be back in a 17th-century world of social and physical distancing as a matter of life and death.

GWPF Newsletter - BBC: Have UK Experts Over-Egged Coronavirus Deaths?

"Heated" Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson To Act On Coronavirus

In this newsletter:

1) BBC: Have UK Experts Over-Egged Coronavirus Deaths?
BBC News, 21 March 2020

2) Ten Days That Changed Britain: "Heated" Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson To Act On Coronavirus
Alex Wickham, BuzzFee, 21 March 2020

Saturday, March 21, 2020

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Get PM and ministers up to speed on coronavirus details

The Government better sit the PM and the health minister down and get them across the details of our coronavirus response.

I am astonished at what these two key ministers don't know.

Our Health Minister doesn't know how many testing kits there are in this country.

We have been asking about this for days, because we're being told behind the scenes we only have limited supplies.

GWPF Newsletter: The Risks of Contracting Mass Hysteria

Why Panicky Pandemic Measures Can Lead To ‘Behavioural Fatigue’ And Societal Disaster

In this newsletter:

1) Do We Suffer ‘Behavioural Fatigue’ For Pandemic Prevention Measures?
Mind Hacks, 20 March 2020

2) Green Deal Facing Delays Due To Coronavirus, EU Admits

Breaking Views Update: Week of 15.03.20

Saturday March 21, 2020

Whanau a Apanui draws up aukati line 
Eastern Bay of Plenty iwi Te Whānau ā Apanui is considering closing off its borders to stop the spread of Covid-19.

Raukokore chair Willie Te Aho says the idea will be discussed by the 12 hapū this afternoon.

He says to protect kaumatua, people will be able to travel through but not stay.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Murray Reid: Rangiaowhia - Fact and Fiction

The writer has grandchildren who descend from Thomas Power and Rahapa te Hauata. She was present during the events of that day. When discussing this fact with a senior Maori leader in North Waikato I was shocked to learn, “that was the place where Maori were locked in a church and burnt to death”. As a result, I decided to follow up on that story.

I soon learnt that the story has no basis in fact. Below is my analysis. I include quotations from numerous senior New Zealanders, with searchable references where possible.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

NZCPR Weekly: COVID-19 – two weeks on

Dear NZCPR Reader,   

This week we examine the new information that is emerging about COVID-19, our NZCPR Guest Commentator Frank Newman looks into the economic consequences of the virus outbreak and the Government’s response, and our poll asks whether you you believe that New Zealand’s health service could cope with a widespread outbreak of COVID-19.

*To read the newsletter click HERE.
*To register for the NZCPR Weekly mailing list, click HERE


GWPF Newsletter: EU Urged To Ditch Green Deal, Cap And Trade Amid Coronavirus

Climate Campaign Loses Momentum As World Fights Coronavirus

In this newsletter:

1) Czech PM Urges EU To Ditch Green Deal Amid Virus
EurActiv, 17 March 2020 
2) EU Should Scrap Emissions Trading Scheme, Polish Official Says
Reuters, 17 March 2020