For example, Muldoon was able to manipulate the 1981 Springbok Tour in a way that extended his administration’s time on the Treasury benches by another 3 years.
Similarly he was able to turn the death of a popular PM, Norman Kirk into an opportunity to destroy his successor Wallace Rowling at the next election.
Those two events epitomise the fickle nature of the voting public and also the character required for survival in what can only be described as the “bear pit” of politics.
Based on the conditions I have just described, and the public’s apparent response to the National Party leader’s time in the top job, one might be forgiven if we were to rush to judgement on Luxon’s and his party’s chances at the next election.
However, in anticipation of a major diplomatic success with one of our foremost trading partners, any suggestion that his immediate demise may be premature..
I’m not saying that a major trade deal would be enough to save his bacon at the ballot box but it may be enough to temporarily stave off those within his caucus who are calling for his head.
After all, politics being what it is, loyalty to a leader is only something that is guaranteed so long as individual MPs remain confident of their own survival.
My take on this current trade mission to India is that it will take something much more enduring in order to secure another term.
Luxon’s problem is that he is not a politician made for the rough and tumble of things that matter to voters on a daily basis.
He is not and never will be “street fighter” of the type who can seize the moment and turn it into something that could save his embattled premiership.
Perhaps it is for that reason he was always unsuited to the leadership role and National should never have chosen him in the first place.
It is only now, in hindsight, that the Coalition is in danger of defeat (more than anything else) because of the wrong choice they made almost four years ago.
Some will say that it is Luxon’s refusal to endorse Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill that is causing the drop in the National’s poll numbers and l add my name to those disgruntled members.
But, irrespective of current public opinion on that volatile issue, he is on borrowed time in the job and the sooner someone else takes over with the capacity to correctly identify the public mood, the sooner the country will be faced with achievable goals that are not race based.
National’s caucus needs to realise that they are the ones with options for a decision that may save their necks but, if they don’t read the tea leaves, the voting public will make that decision for them and it will not be a pretty sight.
Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.
31 comments:
So right Clive. But being a writer of letters to both Luxon and my own MP on the race issue, I won’t be holding my breath for any change soon, but am desperately worried about the state of the country. And for those that believe the continuing Treaty Settlement Claims will be sufficient to satisfy Māori, then they are terribly naive, as is Luxon.
It astounds me how out of touch and ignorant NZs reporters and bloggers are.
There has been no sign whatsoever that Luxons expertly managed team of ministers and mps is anything but cohesive and productive. So why so many falshoods to the contrary from NZs press?
Finally, a NZ government is taking on our wallet raiding supermarkets. This difficult political task will potentially place hundreds of dollars back in Kiwi family's pockets every week.
Not worthy of comment by Clive?
Could that be something to do with how the supermarkets use their excess profits?
A trade deal that just opens us up for even more open immigration will certainly boost his rating with the NZ Initiative.
However, the average Kiwi will consider it a sellout in the hope of getting a ratings boost.
Breaking up Supermarkets - yeah right! Pigs will fly!
Willis is self promoting. Luxon is clutching at any life line.
MH you really think anything is going to change?
MH hiding in the Trojan Horse again !
Seeing you have asked MH, here’s my comment.
You only need to follow what is happening in Aussie as the Government there tries to do the same with Supermarkets that are considered amongst the most profitable in the world.
And to show how difficult it will be to achieve anything like a breakup of the monopoly here in NZ, just note that one of the suggested potential players - Australia’s Coles, has said it isn’t interested. Obviously they have enough on their plate defending their own licence to print money.
But, that rejected offer from the Australasian “big boys” could mean someone like The Warehouse might be encouraged to expand their already limited operation here.
However, here’s the rub.
As a farmer, well versed in being shortchanged for our meat and milk products as soon as it leaves the front gate, the domestic price gouging for our produce is justified on the basis that it is determined by the export market.
As exporters of almost all our agricultural produce, the price at the supermarket is virtually unrelated to the cost of production.
Consequently, we see lamb legs becoming unaffordable at the supermarket while the farmers are barely making ends meet down on the ranch.
It would appear that Finance Minister Willis would serve us better if she looked at the middle men between the farm gate and the consumer. One of this country’s competitive strengths has always been that it can produce a quality product here at home, freight it to markets on the other side of the world and still make a profit.
My guess is that any reductions in Supermarket prices is more likely to come as a result of our Trade Minister negotiating better deals with our freight services and with the New Markets like India.
As long as we remain predominantly an exporting nation, l doubt we will achieve much in the way of domestic price reductions on the home front by simply wagging the finger at the monopolies serving the local market.
But good luck to anybody who wants to give it a go.
Attacking supermarkets is a mere distraction and a reminder that governments have an extremely poor record when becoming involved in such decisions. If a Maori Iwi can spend in excess of $3m before deciding to walk away from establishing a supermarket chain then that should be enough to tell the government that such decisions are best left to private enterprise and to concentrate on issues relating to governance. This government will lose the next election it is not prepared to address the elephant in the room - rampant racism!
All Luxon needs to do is keep his eye on the ball. Trouble is he is spending too much time watching the game on the opposite pitch and needs to look at the right ball.
To MH (Mr Hanley, one presumes):
1. we all know the MSM media was openly against the Coalition from day 1 after the 2023 election. But the Coalition (MsLee/Nat. was the Broadcasting Minister)
did no rapid major clean-out of the MSM - the normal thing to do. Hence the constant " falsehoods" . So why is the Coalition leaving itself open to this constant attack and negative reporting on its efforts? Makes no sense.
2. As I have asked you before - no reply yet:
why does Luxon refuse to give the people of NZ a referendum on democracy or an ethno- state? A very serious thing for any PM to do. Who would trust a PM who does this?
Parliament prioritising pathetic puffery projects 5P They have to stop the (five pee) 5P bills being tabled and table the bills they were voted for and STOP the division of NZ. To even suggest Parliament or Willis could reduce food prices is mindless bullshit from a Finance Minister. Who just like Luxon will not say what he dislikes about the TPBill Willis is taking advice , on grocery cost and sale, Yeah Right .
Mr Bibby (and most of the commenters) appears to miss the one thing that sustains his "leadership".
There is NO alternative!
Not in Parliament (on either side), certainly not in National. A change in Government will see the resumption of the failed and rejected carry-on of the left, a change within National will see no genuine change in the failing, woke and deaf-to-the-electorate non-direction we currently witness.
I believe (I have to believe) that the New Zealand voter is too intelligent to allow the former - but not that the average National member is bright enough to recognise the latter.
God Defend New Zealand!
MH (Mark Hanley?) the loyal cheerleader of (as history will soon record) a loser. As, no doubt, Disney can attest after their latest flop, fail to deliver what the public expects and there will be consequences. Luxon's arrogance and failure to allow the public its voice will be his (deserved) undoing.
Care for a wager as to who will prove right?
No - Peters, Jones, Seymour , Van Velden - all could take over.
It is clear to me that, if the coalition does not get reelected, then our people have over the past 8-years have been more like ostriches than kiwis. The fact that such a large number of citizens seem to have their heads firmly buried tells me that the racism, inflation, debt and division isn’t bad enough yet. And NZ deserves everything that it votes for. In saying the National has done no favours for either the nation or its partners. They seem to completely disregard the adage that the culture is up stream of politics. If National does not sort out the culture they will be electoral dog tucker. One only has to look across at what the US is discovering regarding ‘NGOs’ and reflect on the same behaviour in our charity sector. Replace the charities commission. Give money to only those entities supporting food, clothing and shelter.
Where is the MACA amendment to ensure that the beaches belong to ALL New Zealanders? Where is the legislation to severely cut down on judicial overreach? Where is the policy to link RNZ and TVNZ funding to actual audience so that a fall in ratings means a reduction in budget? I want to see really curly select committee questions that ask media to explain editorial decisions. Not to interfere - just ask so that the public can see the face of the wanker elite
Clive, why is it that people complain about the supermarkets and then when we finally have a prime minister and a government with integrity and big enough cojones to take the monstrosity on, they predict the demise of the government's efforts. In some cases, they even make up stories to predict the demise of the best qualified PM NZ ever had, a PM who also possesses integrity (a rare commodity in politics)?
Why haven't farmers bandied together to increase their bargaining power? The dairy farmers have a very successful profitable model for meat farmers to emulate.
And last but not least...... why are you writing baseless opinion pieces predicting the PMs demise when Luxons government has achieved so much in a short period of time. National kept farmers out of the ETS, they are open to technologies like GM to help farmers, they removed the disgraceful SNAs, and they are out in the world selling your products and developing / completing trade agreements? Luxons government have tamed the inflation making farmers less competitive, and returned growth so NZers can once again afford to buy your products.
Have you identified a better alternative for leading NZ?
What if baseless and pointless articles like the one you wrote actually bring about the demise of the PM, what then? Who is going to do a better job for farmers and the rest of the country?
The saying "a turkey voting for XMAS" springs to mind.
Yawn..... another ANON claiming i haven't answered his / her questions.
1. Luxon doesn't have to clean out the MSM, they are doing that themselves. The NZ Herald takeover will bring about a marked change in the media landscape. Sensible kiwis {myself included} will start reading the herald again when the stupid woke / tangata whenua BS has disappeared. There is a reason Mike Hosking is the most popular radio show in NZ!
2. I answered this question so many times to so many ANONs, my RSI is playing up again. Search my comments to find out why I believe Luxon isn't supporting the pointless (for now) TPB and why i believe the TPB must go to referendum when Nationals term is drawing to a close.
I think most Kiwis don't understand the momentous strides Luxons government is making and the benefits they are and will be receiving as results of Luxon and his team's hard work.
Luxon and his team took on:
- the teachers unions......and are winning!
- the gangs.... and are winning!
- inflation and won!
- economic growth and won!
- crime and are winning!
- the Maori Kings family and won!
There is no reason the intelligent, expertly managed team wont take on supermarkets and win as well!
I'll take a wager on from a punter who believes there is equivalence between the operations, and therefore fortunes, of a Luxon lead government and go woke, go broke disney.
Easy Money!
The thread of these postings has long-since parted company from the original point, that of Luxon's future and the part that a trade deal with India might play in it.
MH 4.49am
Your final comment about the likelihood of Luxon changing his stance to one of support for a referendum is contrary to every utterance he has made - his latest being “ l don’t see anything l like about Seymour’s Bill.”
Doesn’t sound like a man who is just foxing until the next election campaign.
But if you are looking for leadership within the Coalition then one candidate who has a history of changing his stance to suit the public mood is the Rt Hon. Winston Peters. I never thought l would see him as a potential leader of a coalition government but “ cometh the hour - cometh the man.” You ask for my alternative - he’s mine in the current circumstances! I
You comments about farmers using the Fonterra model in the Red Meat export market simply demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the respective markets.
On the one hand, The Dairy Industry is one of the major suppliers of the world demand for milk powder to feed refugees. It is an insatiable market .and the prices received often reflect that.
On the other hand we compete on the World red meat market against counties like Australia that can afford to sell their product at “give away” prices simply to get rid of it if they need to.
They can do that because in terms of export revenue, agriculture products contribute only a fraction of their overseas funds - raw minerals being the major contributor.
We on the other hand rely heavily on the deals we make with countries buying product where choices are made based on reciprocal trading and where access is limited because of global political alliances.
With respect, that's because a Trade Deal with India will not play a significant part in determining Luxon's future or indeed whether or not he will have one should he fail to deal with the real problems that beset us. Have a read of Muriel and Andrew's latest pieces - it is all laid out there!
Clive. A few corrections.....
I didn't say Luxon will change his TOWP stance at the next election campaign. He won't need to.
Luxons clever management will see NZs economy firing at the next election... it's the economy stupid.
Polls show voters are rightfully not focused on race issues. The TOW issue (the Clark / Ardern ruse funnelling our money into the maori kings family whilst distracting /outraging the simple minded majorty with Maori favourtism initiatives) is already taken care of in the coalition agreements.
The TOWP bill is required but not until the next Clark advised axis of evil is in charge.
So Ridiculously biased or just plain stupid predictions of Luxons demise over race issues only serve to bolster the opposition, potentially harming the massive vital change program Luxons government has undertaken.
Your suggestion that an octarian who gave us the Ardern government in his pursuit for baubles, will do something he has never done in his life and make decisions that benefit anyone but himself, is fanciful!
I didn't make comments about farmers.... I asked questions and your answers make sense except a single NZ Inc meat desk will bring the benefits a single kiwi fruit desk brought.
So, given your identification of the importance of trade deals.. . Isn't it time you wrote an article praising the Luxon governemet for signing a trade deal already and for pursuing a trade deal with India.
Perhaps another article on the Luxon Government's efforts to increase banking competition and lower costs borne disproportionately by farmers.
Perhaps an article on the aforementioned pro farmer policies.
If not, why not?
MH
As someone who actually goes through the sometimes stressful vetting process required before my columns are printed on this blog, l find it a bit rich that people like you lecture me about topics for my next column. Your comments would have much more credibility if you opened your own opinions up for public scrutiny rather than simply taking part in the “pack” attack on mine.
I try to write about things that either interest or concern fellow kiwis and you will note that the response to my articles suggest l have more often than not identified subject matter that is both acceptable to the moderator and of interest to the average reader.
You should know that, in order to achieve the often high number of responses to my musings, one has to be acutely aware of where majority public opinion is currently at.
I’m not worried about the criticism that goes with the territory but, my guess is that, my version of the facts is a more accurate assessment than your own glowing interpretation of Luxon as “the Second Coming!”
I’m happy to let the readers decide if l’m right.
Clive.... it is a worry that you find it a bit rich to be asked to provide balance and accuracy In your articles.
Anyone who thinks Peters will do a better job than Luxon really needs to check their "facts".
I'm one of very few posters challenging and exposing the generalized, unevidenced, band wagon, "Luxon bad" pack attackers!
And I'll keep doing it.
Otherwise Peters might be put in charge, then we'll all be in the poo.... really deep poo!
It isn’t what Luxon has done Mark - it is what he hasn’t done in circumstances where responsible leadership would require a re-examination of current policy stances that are seen to be out of date with a changing world - particularly here at home where his political base is frustrated at his woke attitude to race based issues.
I happen to agree with much of your list of Coalition achievements but it all pales into insignificance beside the ramifications of the Treaty Principles Bill not going to a referendum.
This issue on its own is capable, more than any other, of deciding the outcome of the next election - particularly which parties lead a governing coalition. And it may surprise people to read that l believe the one NZ politician capable of providing the leadership required at this moment in time is Winston Peters. His performance as Foreign Minister this term has demonstrated an ability to interact with world leaders on the diplomatic circuit that few would have thought possible.
Successful politics is all about identifying what is required to change the things that most concern a majority of voters in way that reduces their concerns. If your choice is correct and you are able to make the changes necessary, voters will reward you with a longer stint on the treasury benches but if you ignore the obvious concerns, like Luxon appears to be doing, it will cost him personally and may even cost him his leadership of the National Party. It is his choice but the public shouldn’t be asked to pay for his self interest failure to correctly read the signs if that is what happens.
That’s it from me.
Clive, Why is it authors feel the need to criticize Luxon without balancing their articles with all the great things Luxon has achieved?
"I happen to agree with much of your list of Coalition achievements" yet you haven't written one article praising the coalitions many great achievements and the Luxon teams' incredible bravery and integrity in taking on NZs large enduring problems (supermarkets, electricity, gang crime, house prices, infrastructure, etc.)
You unbelievably claim Peters would do a better job because he flies around the world on the public purse talking to world leaders. Talking to world leaders doesn't successfully manage a coalition of diverse leaders, ministers and mps, nor does it lower crime, address rip off oligopolies, balance the government books, or get infrastructure built!
Your claim Luxon's government isn't addressing the race issues used by Clark and Ardern, to distract those lacking depth of thought, from noticing the Labour hierarchy pumping millions of taxpayers funds into the maori kings family.... and beyond, is FALSE!
Here are a few of the Luxon government actions Rawiri Waititi is moaning about (another suggested topic for your next article):
- removed the maori heath authority
- removed maori mumbo jumbo from curriculum'
- cut $600m targeted maori funding,
- rejected the un rights of indigenous people
- defunded section 27 reports
- banned gang patches
- gave police more gang policing powers
- white washed the treaty of Waitangi tribunal
- demoted te reo maori
- returned 3 strikes
- boot camps
- building a mega prison
- repealed section 7aa of the orange tamariki act which forced maori children into maori carers
- entrenching public ownership and enjoyment of coast lines through the marine and coastal areas act
Clive, you say that "the one NZ politician capable of providing the leadership required at this moment in time is Winston Peters". There is no way that a leader of a party that polled 6% of the votes, and no electoral seats, in the election can be the leader of the nation. He'd be chairing a cabinet with all bar 2 or 3 members who represent, and are answerable to, another party. Can't happen.
Sorry MH, You are completely wrong about entrenching the Coasline et al, The MACA Act has displayed another racist attack on NZ this last two weeks at the Ruapuke Island - Takutai Moana MACA hearing in Invercargill where I was the only Opposition Voice. I actually achieved in cross examination of the CEO of Ngai Tahu in confirming Maori travelled by canoe to NZ and are therefore NOT indigenous.
Please read three (3) times , Former Judge Willy excellent synopsis ( NZCPR Breaking Views) of the racial debacle in NZ because he accurately described the Invercargill Hearing in absentia.
The MACA amendment ACT has been slid down the Parliamentary order paper and I plead with your close association to PM Luxon to lift this paper to the top in 2025. It is an election 2026 pivotal matter , along with TPB , Maori seats and the Waitangi Tribunal amendment by NZF
Don't forget that Luxon was the recommendation of John Key and those who accepted it in the naive belief that Key might finally be right about something have only themselves to blame
Basil, I'm not sure why you think I'm wrong... as I mentioned in the post, it is not my list, it is Rawitis.
I don't have a close association with any politician, I do have a pretty good grasp of macro and micro economics, business, and management I also have a pretty good moral compass and don't mind spending some time calling out lazy, unreferenced, and inaccurate public commentary
Allowing this politically driven and blindly followed Luxon hate bandwagon to continue unchecked, could potentially have dire results for me, my family, and all NZers.
Especially when those jumping on the bandwagon advocate Peters as a saviour - what an unmitigated disaster PM Peters would be!
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