They say that on the world stage you’re either playing chess or you’re playing poker.
Very few people on the world stage are good at playing either chess or poker.
Some of these few are good at playing poker; some are good at playing chess. But never both.
Donald Trump is proving to be the exception.
He’s already proven to be a master poker player. Now, together with Benjamin Netanyahu, he’s proving himself to be a master chess player.
In chess you must always be forcing your opponent’s moves. From this comes the fundamental rule to always be on the attack (yes, I know this isn’t always possible but I’m talking about when you’re playing the optimum game).
Every move that Iran has made has been forced. Every move has been orchestrated.
Did Iran have any choice but to accept the ceasefire? Not really, especially when you consider it was not in Iran’s best interests. For Iran, accepting the ceasefire was a sign of weakness. It forced Iran to halt its momentum without achieving any of its stated goals. Agreeing to the ceasefire was less a strategic decision and more an act of survival – a move made not from strength, but from the lack of any viable alternative. And let’s not forget that the ceasefire agreement was written entirely in Israel’s favour with Iran being required to cease firing hours before Israel.
But getting back to the chess analogy: when Israel made its pre-emptive strike on Iran it marked the start of the midgame. The game started well before then with Trump and Netenyahu moving the pieces into place.
The ceasefire marks the beginning of the endgame. The endgame is, of course, the regime change. Iran has shown it is capable of firing rockets into Israel and hitting it. It has also shown that it is hellbent on acquiring a nuclear weapon. Unless the regime is changed, it is only a matter of time before Iran acquires a nuclear weapon.
Iran has explicitly said that its goal is the destruction of the state of Israel. The concept of mutually assured destruction doesn’t apply here. Iran doesn’t care that nuking Israel means Iran’s own destruction.
Jews celebrate life. Islamists celebrate death.
Needless to say regional players are watching carefully. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt – none of them are just bystanders. Some may even lend quiet support if they see Iran as a common threat, which is highly likely given a successful nuclear strike on Israel would have devastating consequences across the entire Middle East.
Of course the board is far larger than it appears at first glance. There are multiple entities involved. What looks like a one-on-one game between Iran and Israel, or Iran and the West, is really a multi-layered conflict involving many unseen hands. Each move affects another.
How is the endgame going to be played out? Honestly, I don’t know. I’m not an expert in military strategy, or the Middle East, or Iran, and I don’t pretend to be. But you can bet that Trump and Netanyahu are surrounded by people who are. And these include people who are also expert in Iranian culture, who know the mood of the Iranian people, who know how ready Iranians are to rise up against the current regime.
Khamenei, not so much, unless you consider the Koran to be an expert text in military strategy along with fawning ‘advisors’.
But I do know that Israeli agents, and possibly American, are already deep inside the heart of Tehran. Given that, next could be acts of sabotage to knock the regime off balance. It’s also a good bet that resistance groups inside Iran are being armed and trained and being given intelligence by both Israel and the US.
In other words, when the revolution does happen, and probably soon, you can be assured that the result has already been determined.
Of course I may be completely wrong. Time will tell.
But one thing for sure is the game isn’t over yet.
Kevin is a Libertarian and pragmatic anarchist. His favourite saying: “There but for the grace of God go I.” This article was first published HERE
Some of these few are good at playing poker; some are good at playing chess. But never both.
Donald Trump is proving to be the exception.
He’s already proven to be a master poker player. Now, together with Benjamin Netanyahu, he’s proving himself to be a master chess player.
In chess you must always be forcing your opponent’s moves. From this comes the fundamental rule to always be on the attack (yes, I know this isn’t always possible but I’m talking about when you’re playing the optimum game).
Every move that Iran has made has been forced. Every move has been orchestrated.
Did Iran have any choice but to accept the ceasefire? Not really, especially when you consider it was not in Iran’s best interests. For Iran, accepting the ceasefire was a sign of weakness. It forced Iran to halt its momentum without achieving any of its stated goals. Agreeing to the ceasefire was less a strategic decision and more an act of survival – a move made not from strength, but from the lack of any viable alternative. And let’s not forget that the ceasefire agreement was written entirely in Israel’s favour with Iran being required to cease firing hours before Israel.
But getting back to the chess analogy: when Israel made its pre-emptive strike on Iran it marked the start of the midgame. The game started well before then with Trump and Netenyahu moving the pieces into place.
The ceasefire marks the beginning of the endgame. The endgame is, of course, the regime change. Iran has shown it is capable of firing rockets into Israel and hitting it. It has also shown that it is hellbent on acquiring a nuclear weapon. Unless the regime is changed, it is only a matter of time before Iran acquires a nuclear weapon.
Iran has explicitly said that its goal is the destruction of the state of Israel. The concept of mutually assured destruction doesn’t apply here. Iran doesn’t care that nuking Israel means Iran’s own destruction.
Jews celebrate life. Islamists celebrate death.
Needless to say regional players are watching carefully. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt – none of them are just bystanders. Some may even lend quiet support if they see Iran as a common threat, which is highly likely given a successful nuclear strike on Israel would have devastating consequences across the entire Middle East.
Of course the board is far larger than it appears at first glance. There are multiple entities involved. What looks like a one-on-one game between Iran and Israel, or Iran and the West, is really a multi-layered conflict involving many unseen hands. Each move affects another.
How is the endgame going to be played out? Honestly, I don’t know. I’m not an expert in military strategy, or the Middle East, or Iran, and I don’t pretend to be. But you can bet that Trump and Netanyahu are surrounded by people who are. And these include people who are also expert in Iranian culture, who know the mood of the Iranian people, who know how ready Iranians are to rise up against the current regime.
Khamenei, not so much, unless you consider the Koran to be an expert text in military strategy along with fawning ‘advisors’.
But I do know that Israeli agents, and possibly American, are already deep inside the heart of Tehran. Given that, next could be acts of sabotage to knock the regime off balance. It’s also a good bet that resistance groups inside Iran are being armed and trained and being given intelligence by both Israel and the US.
In other words, when the revolution does happen, and probably soon, you can be assured that the result has already been determined.
Of course I may be completely wrong. Time will tell.
But one thing for sure is the game isn’t over yet.
Kevin is a Libertarian and pragmatic anarchist. His favourite saying: “There but for the grace of God go I.” This article was first published HERE
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