The economy will pick up, this government’s only two years in and kiwis like to give incumbents the benefit of the doubt.
I still think this holds true. But, as we’ve been reporting since April, Trump’s tariffs - which took everybody (including the markets) by surprise, making a bear of a bull - hammered business and consumer confidence just as we were showing signs of those green shoots the pundits love talking about.
This has shortened Luxon’s window for a real economic recovery, which is the platform he’s relying on for re-election.
Talk of a leadership coup by Christmas is in my view daft.
Any National MP who thinks they can outpoll Luxon in the current climate’s got to be dreaming. A short-term bump, maybe.
But there are political costs - namely - instability. Remember Muller?
Then this newly elected Leader must go to Winston and David and no doubt relitigate all and sundry just as the later begin firing up for a showdown.
Winston and Shane were in full flight at the weekend. And it’s only September 2025.
Timing is everything and that’s Luxon’s card to play - in 12 months from now the country will (likely) feel a much different place to live.
That means a late election. If National are smart they’ll stick with the devil they know and wait for brighter days ahead.
The risks outweigh the benefits at this point in the cycle.
If needs be, a transition can happen in pretty short order… Jacinda Ardern is proof of that.
Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.
2 comments:
US tariffs causing our recession is my “worst take of 2025”.
Funny but the only people talking about a leadership coup are cerebrally challenged, nakedly left wing, nz media.
Perhaps after over 50% of nz voters thought the obviously dim ardern could run a country, the emboldened media think they can fool those voters into believing McAnulty won't just continue the Clark advised tax money laundering schemes.
Easily solved though Mr Luxon.
A new finance minister who can remember and understand numbers.
A new internal affairs minister with the intelligence to govern a proper covid inquiry including an audit to discover who got our $74.4b covid spend.
A new Commerce and Consumer Affairs minister who isn't rendered impotent by a conflict caused by a relationship with SUPERMARKETS.
And maybe a new auditor general who after looking into covid spending ""A lack of transparency and documentation about how and why decision-makers made significant decisions can also create the perception that processes lack integrity," takes the next obvious step to find out who got our $74.4b!
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