Clive Bibby: Do policies determine elections?

Why is it that transformative policies have rarely determined the outcome of New Zealand elections? This time could be different!

I have voted in over 20 general elections during my adult life and am surprised to see, during that time, few if any party was elected based on policies that had the ability to radically change people’s lives for the better.

Yes there are exceptions, but they were more likely to be reactions to incumbent government failures (Muldoon’s disastrous siege economy) or a response to years of hardship during a world wide Depression and a World War (The First Labour government first elected in 1935).

And even then, the Savage / Fraser led government remains the only one of the 20th century whose policies (The Welfare State) appealed enough that change was inevitable.

In almost every other case, it has been rare for voters acting to change a government after only one term unless a breach of trust emerged that became terminal (The Ardern / Hipkins government).

And so, what can we expect from the coming election in November this year.

Given the MMP system that currently operates in this country, my guess is that the Coalition will be returned, possibly with an increased majority.

I say that because polling suggests the Opposition parties will collectively struggle to deliver enough seats in order to form a majority in the House.

And I suspect the main reason for that happening will be voters rejection of Woke and Race based policies that have failed to excite the populace.

New Zealand voters are a mixture of immigrants settlers who have built this nation on hard work and support for egalitarian policies that reward enterprise, diligence and a society placing high priority on caring for those less fortunate than ourselves.

It is therefore unsurprising that voters repeatedly respond favourably to parties promoting equality of opportunity over policies involving affirmative action on behalf of a select few.

In that context, it isn’t hard to understand the growing popularity of policies that appeal to those who want the elimination of racial preference from a society that believes everybody is entitled to equal opportunity under the law.

And my guess is that this growing desire for change will become the reason why the next election will actually be the first in decades to be decided on a single social structure policy.

There is a reason why The Rt Hon Winston Peters is such a successful politician and ironically, it has little to do with his outstanding ability representing our national interest at world forums.

It is because he has an uncanny knack of sensing the public mood for change in specific areas that affect our daily lives and opinions about personal responsibilities.

He is often charged with being a racist but that label doesn’t stick given he is proud of his own Maori heritage. Consequently his policies attacking institutions that have long been regarded as sacrosanct in modern society resonate with people who have tired of programmes that are seen to have overstayed their welcome. They no longer serve the purpose for which they may have originally been created.

In my own case, having long been a conservative voter, only once even considered voting Labour, this time the choices offer a real opportunity to vote for a party’s policies rather than the makeup of their idealogical persuasion.

Last time I split my support between National at the Electorate level and Act for the Party vote.

This time I am inclined to support both minor parties in the Coalition based on policies that are realistic in the circumstances.

Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.