Nothing could be further from the truth.
As Victor Davis Hanson pointed out in his recent podcast, this narrative is historically illiterate. America has been written off repeatedly — in the 1930s, after Vietnam, during the 1970s stagflation, and again in the 1980s when Japan was supposed to eat their lunch. Each time, the United States reinvented itself and surged ahead. The same pattern is repeating now, only the gap with China is widening, not narrowing.
Military Power
China boasts the world’s largest navy by hull count, but numbers deceive. The US Navy operates 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers with global reach and battle-hardened experience. China has three carriers, none comparable in capability or power projection. America’s submarine fleet — especially its nuclear attack boats — is vastly superior in stealth, training and combat effectiveness. US air power remains unmatched: over 13,000 aircraft, including advanced fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 and F-22, against China’s roughly 3,500.
Crucially, America’s military is built for global power projection and sustained operations far from home. China’s forces remain largely a regional “green-water” navy, optimised for the near seas. Its equipment is often derivative of stolen or reverse-engineered Western technology, and its lack of recent combat experience shows. Hanson notes that in any serious confrontation, the US holds decisive qualitative and logistical edges.
Energy, Economy and Demographics
The US is the world’s undisputed energy superpower. It produces more oil and gas than any other nation and can turn the taps on or off at will. China remains dangerously dependent on imported energy. America’s economy is more innovative, dynamic and resilient. Its universities, venture capital markets, AI leadership and tech ecosystem have no peer. China’s growth model is sputtering — a collapsing property sector, hidden local government debt, and a demographic cliff caused by the one-child disaster. By 2050 it will have tens of millions fewer workers and a mountain of elderly with no one to support them.
Hanson is blunt: Trump holds the leverage, not Xi. America can afford strategic ambiguity and tough tariffs. Beijing is playing defence — brittle, paranoid and increasingly isolated. Its proxy network is fraying.
The decline narrative flatters Beijing and excuses weak-kneed diplomacy in places like Wellington. It lets officials pretend that kowtowing to the CCP is sophisticated realism rather than short-term commercial opportunism at the expense of long-term strategic sanity.
New Zealand should stop hedging against America and start betting on the proven engine of prosperity and freedom. Free markets, the rule of law, secure property rights and energy abundance have delivered the goods for two centuries. China’s state-directed model is producing ghost cities, youth unemployment and a surveillance state that even its own people increasingly resent.
The smart money has always been on the republic that keeps reinventing itself, not the dictatorship racing toward demographic and economic senescence. Hanson is right: reports of America’s decline have been greatly exaggerated — again. Beijing knows it. It is time Wellington did too.
Military Power
China boasts the world’s largest navy by hull count, but numbers deceive. The US Navy operates 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers with global reach and battle-hardened experience. China has three carriers, none comparable in capability or power projection. America’s submarine fleet — especially its nuclear attack boats — is vastly superior in stealth, training and combat effectiveness. US air power remains unmatched: over 13,000 aircraft, including advanced fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 and F-22, against China’s roughly 3,500.
Crucially, America’s military is built for global power projection and sustained operations far from home. China’s forces remain largely a regional “green-water” navy, optimised for the near seas. Its equipment is often derivative of stolen or reverse-engineered Western technology, and its lack of recent combat experience shows. Hanson notes that in any serious confrontation, the US holds decisive qualitative and logistical edges.
Energy, Economy and Demographics
The US is the world’s undisputed energy superpower. It produces more oil and gas than any other nation and can turn the taps on or off at will. China remains dangerously dependent on imported energy. America’s economy is more innovative, dynamic and resilient. Its universities, venture capital markets, AI leadership and tech ecosystem have no peer. China’s growth model is sputtering — a collapsing property sector, hidden local government debt, and a demographic cliff caused by the one-child disaster. By 2050 it will have tens of millions fewer workers and a mountain of elderly with no one to support them.
Hanson is blunt: Trump holds the leverage, not Xi. America can afford strategic ambiguity and tough tariffs. Beijing is playing defence — brittle, paranoid and increasingly isolated. Its proxy network is fraying.
The decline narrative flatters Beijing and excuses weak-kneed diplomacy in places like Wellington. It lets officials pretend that kowtowing to the CCP is sophisticated realism rather than short-term commercial opportunism at the expense of long-term strategic sanity.
New Zealand should stop hedging against America and start betting on the proven engine of prosperity and freedom. Free markets, the rule of law, secure property rights and energy abundance have delivered the goods for two centuries. China’s state-directed model is producing ghost cities, youth unemployment and a surveillance state that even its own people increasingly resent.
The smart money has always been on the republic that keeps reinventing itself, not the dictatorship racing toward demographic and economic senescence. Hanson is right: reports of America’s decline have been greatly exaggerated — again. Beijing knows it. It is time Wellington did too.
Rodney Hide is a former Minister and leader of the ACT Party. This article was sourced from HERE.
6 comments:
Thankyou Rodney - just the morning before victors post went up I was thinking to myself what utter bs we keep accepting on the rise of China - yes they have come a very long way in a short time but no they are not immune from internal troubles - they themselves have massive economic and social problems- much bigger than any western countries (except perhaps Britain), but because we have to hunt for that news and information, people who only listen to ray dallio and accept his points without question, believe that the west is doomed. It’s simply not true.
VDH is a military historian - he is absolutely worth your time.
It is China's alliance with Russia that makes them feel invincible.
The China/Russia alliance is an unnatural one. The two parted company in 1960 when both were still communist. The only thing they have in common today is that the US is still operating within the framework of the Cold War. Washington is moreover intent on provoking Moscow at every opportunity.
Europe is waking up to the realities of the 21st century. We need to get the Yanks out of European affairs and woo Moscow with a view to returning Russia to the European fold where she belongs.
This would take the wind out of China's sails. Problem solved.
How’s that working out for them with Iran??
If they can’t bend Iran to their will what hope do they have with China?
Thanks for that Rodney. I couldn't have said it better.
Does Rodney Hide really believe that America was “written off” in the 1930s, post-Vietnam, again in the 1970 and in the 1980s. Obviously, it wasn’t. The 20th Century was the American Century. Yes, they had their periods of challenge and reflection, but, at least after Pearl Harbour, their power and dominance was pre-eminent. They were a great country, and still are, with all its faults. The balance, though, is shifting.
But what if they had been written off, but bounced back? That doesn’t indicate anything about the future. (The moral in the parable of the shepherd boy crying ‘wolf’ is not that repeatedly there was no wolf, but eventually there was.) What will be the standing of national power and influence by the end of this century? It may seem a long way off for most of us, but today’s children, all going well, can expect to see it. I suspect that America will be a diminished force, but it need not be. What it needs, and what it is not giving itself, is visionary leadership that emphasises the need to protect the life-giving forces of the planet, and the need to wean itself of fossil fuel and the consumption of finite resources.
Dominant power is not necessarily measure in a fleet of super carriers, masses of supersonic bombers, and a trillion dollar plus military budget, as President Trump is just finding out with his ill-considered war with Iran, a country that spends just 1% of what America does on the military. Assumedly Putin is finding that out also. He, like a lot of other people, thought that Ukraine was going to be a pushover.
There may be a lot of things about China that we don’t agree with – the system of government and justice, but they are smart. Are they outsmarting Trump’s America? Certainly, their industrial power is expanding faster than America, if that is expanding at all.
And then there’s general global public and political respect. How’s that going for America under Trump. Not so good, but that is likely to change when a new president takes office. For much of the world, that can’t come soon enough.
I have picked for the article the following statements -
1.- [quote] -" Its equipment is often derivative of stolen or reverse-engineered Western technology," [end quote]
Rodney I wonder how many reader's focused on this. The reader should understand that it is not just military hardware but also other factors (machinery, tools etc) the latter can be found in Bunnings & M.10.
Military weapons, the initial 'models' actually came from Russian equipment - the AK47 being "reproduced' by their major arms manufacturer. If you go to the Gun Shop (NZ) you can buy a civilian 'copy' of this weapon - Made In China.
2. - [quote] "China’s state-directed model is producing ghost cities, youth unemployment and a surveillance state that even its own people increasingly resent" [end quote]
- there are several videos that you can search for via You Tube on China,
> one by a former South African who lived there - now under "threat" for his videos.
> by those who have explored the 'ghost cities" (extravagant building) built on the 'dime' of the Citizen, but have never been , nor likely to - be inhabited.
> People and increasing resentment - sadly has an ending that does not bode well for the protagonist or their families - the people of Hong Kong have found that out as well.
Yet NZ 'kowtows' to China - a big importer of our product, until we do something "silly", just like the Aussie's did and paid for that "silliness" and still do.
Post a Comment
Thank you for joining the discussion. Breaking Views welcomes respectful contributions that enrich the debate. Please ensure your comments are not defamatory, derogatory or disruptive. We appreciate your cooperation.