I have a fraction of the insight of these great minds and insufficient wisdom or humility to prevent me from joining them in making absurdly incorrect predictions. Buckle up.
Now, I know every columnist with their stipend is writing about last week’s budget. My first prediction is that you do not wish to read one more; so let’s take a wider lens and allow our minds wander to the possible, the improbable, and the magical.
War is hell but it does drive innovation. The brutal conflict in eastern Ukraine has accelerated the development of drones large and small and both will have a profound impact on our lives.
First; consider the inevitability of personalised individual flight. A drone capable of lifting an adult and flying them across the urban landscape. Across motorways, industrial parks and even the sparkling Waitemata. The idea no longer seems futuristic escapism lifted from the Jetsons.
War is hell but it does drive innovation. The brutal conflict in eastern Ukraine has accelerated the development of drones large and small and both will have a profound impact on our lives.
First; consider the inevitability of personalised individual flight. A drone capable of lifting an adult and flying them across the urban landscape. Across motorways, industrial parks and even the sparkling Waitemata. The idea no longer seems futuristic escapism lifted from the Jetsons.
Drones are the next transport revolution and they could reshape
everything from cities to privacy, writes Damien Grant. Photo: AP
There are technical issues of battery capacity and air traffic management but the technology is developing quickly. There will be manned drone races around Rangitoto before I am lowered into the soil. It is a short distance from sport to domestic applications.
We will initially ground these devices through regulation but the technology is too powerful to constrain. Short of shooting one down, how do you police the skies?
Our urban landscape will be re-engineered. The car was an improvement on the horse-driven hansom cab. For thousands of years transport has been moving along setpaths carved into the landscape.
Planes created an alternative for connecting disparate urban centres but were impractical for moving between suburbs.
This new technology will, literally, lift us to another dimension. How we think about congestion, travel and housing will be reconfigured. This will not happen this year, or this decade, but once you consider the direction, the inevitability becomes obvious.
Overseas the policing of borders will become incredibly complex. Drones are already smuggling drugs across the Rio Grande and even the Straits of Gibraltar. Once the load capacity is there people will be strapped in and sent forth.
But there is a dark side to these machines. The Black Hornet is a Norwegian device weighing just 70 grams. It currently has no anti-personnel capacity but this is coming. Soon, very soon, we will have micro-drones the size of a sparrow loaded with an explosive charge. The capacity for mischief is self-evident.
Initially these machines will remain in the hands of the well-resourced but, like the Global Positioning System and microwaves, technology developed by the military soon becomes accessible to the public.
And while you contemplate how a democratic rules-based society can navigate the security implications of this problem let me take you back to Wuhan. It now seems that Covid may have escaped from a Chinese government lab. Which raises the awkward question; what else was being developed behind those pressure-sealed doors?
Nothing good. And what happens when angry young men who value notoriety more than their own lives discover that, with an internet connection, a three-dimensional printer and malign intent they can create weapons of mayhem currently accessible only to state-funded institutions?
The threat will be diffuse, obscure, difficult to identify and impossible to detect without oppressive surveillance.
01:20 NASA lays out moon base plans with landers,
There are technical issues of battery capacity and air traffic management but the technology is developing quickly. There will be manned drone races around Rangitoto before I am lowered into the soil. It is a short distance from sport to domestic applications.
We will initially ground these devices through regulation but the technology is too powerful to constrain. Short of shooting one down, how do you police the skies?
Our urban landscape will be re-engineered. The car was an improvement on the horse-driven hansom cab. For thousands of years transport has been moving along setpaths carved into the landscape.
Planes created an alternative for connecting disparate urban centres but were impractical for moving between suburbs.
This new technology will, literally, lift us to another dimension. How we think about congestion, travel and housing will be reconfigured. This will not happen this year, or this decade, but once you consider the direction, the inevitability becomes obvious.
Overseas the policing of borders will become incredibly complex. Drones are already smuggling drugs across the Rio Grande and even the Straits of Gibraltar. Once the load capacity is there people will be strapped in and sent forth.
But there is a dark side to these machines. The Black Hornet is a Norwegian device weighing just 70 grams. It currently has no anti-personnel capacity but this is coming. Soon, very soon, we will have micro-drones the size of a sparrow loaded with an explosive charge. The capacity for mischief is self-evident.
Initially these machines will remain in the hands of the well-resourced but, like the Global Positioning System and microwaves, technology developed by the military soon becomes accessible to the public.
And while you contemplate how a democratic rules-based society can navigate the security implications of this problem let me take you back to Wuhan. It now seems that Covid may have escaped from a Chinese government lab. Which raises the awkward question; what else was being developed behind those pressure-sealed doors?
Nothing good. And what happens when angry young men who value notoriety more than their own lives discover that, with an internet connection, a three-dimensional printer and malign intent they can create weapons of mayhem currently accessible only to state-funded institutions?
The threat will be diffuse, obscure, difficult to identify and impossible to detect without oppressive surveillance.
01:20 NASA lays out moon base plans with landers,
buggies and drones at the top of the list
Patrick Henry, a rebellious American colonial, gave a thunderous speech in 1775; “Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!"
In his time death came at the end of a musket; where the enemy could be seen, helpfully wore a bright red coI like at and marched to the drum of predictability. Tomorrow’s civilian, I confidently predict, will not share Henry’s embrace of oblivion.
We already trade our privacy to Silicon Valley to marginally improve our Netflix selections. It seems improbable we will protest the security services accessing our private communications if it enhances the authorities finding the next Timothy McVeigh.
The future isn’t a set destination for us to explore. We are not Captain Cook out to find islands that already exist. Predictions, other than an opportunity to mock those who get them wrong, allow us to imagine the world as it will be. And to remember that what happens tomorrow is a function of both what has gone before and what we are doing today.......The full article is published HERE
In his time death came at the end of a musket; where the enemy could be seen, helpfully wore a bright red coI like at and marched to the drum of predictability. Tomorrow’s civilian, I confidently predict, will not share Henry’s embrace of oblivion.
We already trade our privacy to Silicon Valley to marginally improve our Netflix selections. It seems improbable we will protest the security services accessing our private communications if it enhances the authorities finding the next Timothy McVeigh.
The future isn’t a set destination for us to explore. We are not Captain Cook out to find islands that already exist. Predictions, other than an opportunity to mock those who get them wrong, allow us to imagine the world as it will be. And to remember that what happens tomorrow is a function of both what has gone before and what we are doing today.......The full article is published HERE
Damien Grant is an Auckland business owner, a member of the Taxpayers’ Union and a regular opinion contributor for Stuff, writing from a libertarian perspective
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for joining the discussion. Breaking Views welcomes respectful contributions that enrich the debate. Please ensure your comments are not defamatory, derogatory or disruptive. We appreciate your cooperation.