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Monday, August 3, 2026

Dr Michael Johnston: Is university still worthwhile?


New Zealanders have long seen university as the best educational route to the good life. Trades and industry training is seen as a second-best option.

That attitude has always been based more on prejudice than reality. Skilled tradies are paid well and many go on to start lucrative businesses of their own.

It is time for a serious re-think of the way young people are prepared for the choices they face when they leave school.

Generative AI is likely to limit entry-level work in the knowledge economy in the near future. While there is little hard evidence that this is happening just yet, students choosing degree study today are making a long-term bet.

Expected incomes for graduates vary markedly with their field of study. Law, medicine and engineering continue to attract high salaries. But law and medicine may be amongst the professions hardest hit by AI in coming years.

Bachelors of Arts (BAs) account for about a third of all undergraduate degrees. But income premiums for BAs are very modest.

Some students study for degrees out of pure interest. But many have likely undertaken degree studies with unrealistic expectations of the employment and salary prospects awaiting them when they graduate.

There are many attractive alternatives to university. Apprenticeships in electrical engineering, automotive industries and building and construction all lead to employment, yielding higher average salaries than a BA does five years after completion.

Apprentices are paid a modest wage while they complete their qualifications. Employers often foot the bill for their tertiary fees. Meanwhile, many university students struggle to make ends meet and most graduate with substantial debt.

Trade and industry occupations may also be less vulnerable to AI encroachment than many professions requiring university degrees. But most schools share the kiwi prejudice that university is a more desirable option.

School students need clear information about the many pathways to employment. That would help them make informed decisions about subject choices and post-school study. But the relevant information is distributed across multiple government websites. It is hardly accessible to an average fifteen-year-old.

Simple infographics hosted on the Ministry of Education website would help. These could show qualifications requirements, market demand, average salary and career development prospects for a wide variety of occupations. Career counsellors could help students use them to make choices with open eyes.

University remains a good option for many, but young people need to know the alternatives.

Dr Michael Johnston is a Senior Fellow at the New Zealand Initiative. This article was first published HERE

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Its not just about potential income, but about young people subjecting themselves to indoctrination by the WOKE ideology and Maorification program that is deeply imbeded in all NZ universities now. This doesn't happen in the trades that are learned outside of university.

Barend Vlaardingerbroek said...

By age 16, a young person should know where his or her interests and aptitudes lie. In tandem with careers education and guidance, this should guide subject choices in Years 12 and 13.
NZ follows the British 'open choice' model for upper secondary schooling although schools themselves may effectively track pupils into e.g. science-intensive tracks ('3 sciences plus maths') with a view to entering programmes at university leading to such fields as biomedical and engineering.
The European systems are a bit more structured. In France or Germany, a pupil is tracked into a package of set subjects (allowing for some minor electives) meshing with tertiary programmes at varsity and tech (including programmes leading to apprenticeships).
In several countries including Germany and Japan, some technical colleges have been upgraded to universities.
The British system NZ follows is more flexible at upper secondary level but without proper guidance youngsters can end up doing subject combination in Year 13 that they think will get there where they want (e.g. biomedical) but in fact don't. Pupils, parents, schools and teachers need to make sure that their charges are well equipped to make those crucial subject decisions that kick in at the end of Year 11.

Anonymous said...

In the 1990s , secondary school guidance counsellors were telling students to pursue qualifications in computing at polytechs not Universities. I questioned that and directed them to university . Now at the current international job level , employers show preference for university -trained IT grads. One individual tells of being given many tests on reading comprehension, IQ tests , biometric tests as well as mathematical logic tests for an IT job .
My conclusion would be 'don't accept advice from only one vocational counsellor. Do your own research and consult other sources including recruiting agencies and government labour surveys.
Back there with the dinosaurs in the 1960s , only about 5% of high school grads. went to uni. I believe that may be about right . Canterbury Uni. had 3,000 students , then but now they have about 30,000 with 4,000 post grads. - ridiculous. Cut out all the woke courses that go nowhere like communications and women studies .There are zilch jobs in fashion and design . Such subjects are hobby courses.
With 1500 applicants for a one coffee barista job , apparently, clearly students need to be told ( brutally), that hard manual labour in eg horticulure is a better option than trendy courses like being a barista.
An acquaintance lost their job in IT because of AI
but only weeks later , got it back again because the Ai was unsatisfactory. Gaynor

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