Bob Edlin: Te Tai Tonga titillates the Nats on coalition options – but not for long

The Nats would – or should – have been troubling over their prospects of forming another coalition government after polling from 1News-Verian showed a Green surge and the left bloc able to win government.

That could be averted (on the basis of the poll results) only if National was willing to work with the Opportunity Party – and National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled them out of considerations.

Then came news of another possibility…

Election 2026: Tākuta Ferris open to coalition with National, Act and NZ First

Independent MP Tākuta Ferris says he is open to being part of a coalition with National, Act and New Zealand First if it means his electorate of Te Tai Tonga gets a voice at the table.

Ferris made the comments during the first in a series of Māori seat debates by Whakaata Māori, hosted by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox, in the final weeks before the election.

His reasoning?

“We all know what we require here is a change of Government – our people want that 100%. But if it turns out we don’t get it, and you’ve got the chance to go in there and do something about it …

“I’d go in. I wouldn’t sell my soul either, but I wouldn’t leave my people hung out for three years either.”

The electorate covers the South Island, Stewart Island and the Chathams, and nudges into the southern North Island.

Labour MPs from the Tirikatene family held it for 72 years, with only brief periods of representation by New Zealand First and Māori Party MPs.

Ferris, standing for the Maori Party, defeated long-serving MP Rino Tirikatene in the 2023 election. But he is running as an independent at this election after disagreements within the Maori Party led to his departure from the party.

PoO wonders if the Nats had time to take Te Tai Tonga into its numbers game before another bit of election news landed:

Tākuta Ferris is coming last in a new Te Tai Tonga poll

Oh, bugger!

Incumbent MP Tākuta Ferris could lose his electorate seat of Te Tai Tonga, with a new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll showing him trailing behind every other candidate in the country’s largest electorate at 15% support, including Labour’s Mananui Ramsden with 30%, Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch with 17%, and Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga with 16%.

The electorate – let’s face it – doesn’t look a strong prospect for providing the Nats with a coalition partner.

Bob Edlin is a veteran journalist and editor for the Point of Order blog HERE.