Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Thoughts for reducing child material hardship

Last month, the Ministry of Social Development released the latest of its excellent statistical reports documenting the extent of child poverty, hardship/deprivation in New Zealand.

The proportions are much below their peak rates around 15 years ago but are still too high.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: The political malaise over New Zealand’s low wage problem

Among prosperous nations, New Zealand is relatively a low-income country. That hurts.

In 2024, net national income per capita was 30% higher in Australia, according to the Paris-based OECD. It was only 19% higher on average over the four years to 2019.

That 2024 gap represents a missing NZ$20,000 per person a year. That is $100 billion a year spread over 5 million people.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: The oil price policy traps from the 1970s which the Government should learn from

Brent crude hit $112 a barrel last Friday. Goldman Sachs says it could reach $147 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed; the futures market predicts it will be $86 in six months. Anyone who knew for sure could make a fortune. But no one does.

The inexorable pressure on governments to “do something”, always has dangers New Zealand has been here before. Twice. First in 1973–74 and again in 1979–80.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Granny flat red tape changes shifts risk from councils onto homeowners

New Zealanders once took pride in being a resilient “do-it-yourself” (DIY) people.

Working city fathers, like mine, would spend much of their weekends working on their houses, gardens, fruit trees or sheds. Farmers would build cottages for shearers, farm managers and elderly relatives without much red tape. They needed to.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Why central banks commonly ease up on inflation too soon

Consumer price inflation in New Zealand is not beaten. The Reserve Bank might decide it has cut interest rates a bit too much.

It has cut the official cash rate nine times in just 16 months.

We will know the decision on 18 February. This is its next scheduled review date.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: You do not have to own someone's house to help them

You do not have to own someone's house to help them, so why does Kāinga Ora's Reset Plan envisage continuing to own around 78,000 housing units?

This week, The New Zealand Initiative published my report "Owning less to achieve more: Refocusing Kāinga Ora". It addresses this question.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Owning less to achieve more

Why does the government need to continue owning or managing more than 77,000 housing units, given its poor track record in this area, especially when state assistance can be provided without extensive government ownership?

And why does it not release more land for housing?

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Deficit spending is not a growth strategy

This week, 20 economists published an open letter calling for increased government spending. They argue that spending now will reduce economic pain. Reducing the public debt can wait.

Open debate about the best path forward matters, especially when so many New Zealanders are doing it tough.

But the letter’s central argument is puzzling.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Alarming US public debt means New Zealand Government should be more prudent

Imagine that your family spent twice as much as it earned last month. Around the kitchen table the mood would be grim and the bank’s patience likely wearing thin.

In August 2025, the United States federal government spend over twice its income, $689 billion versus receipts of $344 billion. Even doubling every American’s tax bill would not have closed that gap.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: The importance of clear laws shown in impressive evidence from Italy

New research finds that incomes per capita in Italy could be 5% higher if the government wrote better laws. Many laws are confusing and hard to understand. Even for the courts. The uncertainty harms business decisions and costs everyone money.

The research is by economist Tommaso Giommoni and coauthors. Their study “The Economic Costs of Ambiguous Laws” was published in June 2025 by the Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: New Zealand’s response to Trump’s tariffs is encouraging

Last week, Donald Trump slapped a 15% tariff on New Zealand exports. An annual nine billion dollars of our goods will now face higher barriers entering the US market. Our beef, wine and dairy exporters will suffer.

Australia got only a 10% slap. Labour calls this difference a “major fail”.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: A response to sincerely held concerns about the Regulatory Standards Bill

This week, Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee is hearing oral submissions on the government’s Regulatory Standards Bill. I support the Bill, most submitters oppose it. So, I have been listening carefully to their reasons.

Most opponents are passionate and sincere. They genuinely believe that the Bill will make it harder for governments to act collectively in the public interest.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Two suggestions for handling a deluge of submissions.

How should a select committee respond to a deluge of submissions? Does it matter if many submissions are part of a campaign playing on whipped up fears?

Such questions now confront our select committees. A process-oriented Bill before Parliament has apparently attracted over 133,000 whipped up submissions.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: The demise of a Wellington icon

Minister Chris Bishop has swung his ministerial wrecking ball at Wellington. He will strip the Gordon Wilson Flats of its heritage protection. At last, the bulldozers can begin.

What a loss to world culture this will be. Forget Paris, Cairo or Rome. For over a decade Wellington has been conserving its own decaying monument to another time.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Dangerous belittling of New Zealanders’ liberty and property rights

Governments have many roles, but some are of fundamental importance. A vital role is to secure citizens in their persons and possessions.

I am amazed by the extent of public opposition to this long-standing principle. It has been triggered by its inclusion in the government’s Regulatory Standards Bill.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Increasing debt default risk won’t Make America Great Again

On 12 May, President Donald Trump's government spending and revenue bill was published. With characteristic panache, the President calls it his “Big Beautiful Bill”.

On 16 May, Moody's, a US credit rating agency, did something it had not done for over 100 years. It dropped its credit rating for US federal government debt from AAA to AA1. Meanwhile, eleven prosperous countries retain their AAA status – for now. They include Australia and New Zealand.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Preaching to the unconverted - My regulatory revelation

Last night, I found myself standing at St Peter’s Church for the “Red Tape Hui,” not to confess my economic sins, but to proselytise about the virtues of the prospective Regulatory Standards Bill.

The event, hosted by Labour’s Greg O’Connor, MP for Ōhāriu and Assistant Speaker of the House, featured a panel including Dr Bryce Edwards from The Integrity Institute and Craig Renney from the Council of Trade Unions.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: What Crown assets should we sell?

Imagine if your household owned a share in many valuable things - houses, businesses, forests, and more - worth about $275,000. But the income you were getting was meagre.

Now, imagine you had borrowed a lot of money to buy these things, and the interest payments were taking a chunk of your income. What would you consider doing?

Dr Bryce Wilkinsons: The People's Portfolio

This report shows the government owns $571 billion in assets - equivalent to $275,000 for every Kiwi household.

"The returns from these government-owned assets don't even cover the interest costs on the money borrowed to buy them," says Dr Bryce Wilkinson, author of The People's Portfolio: A $571 Billion Question.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Bureaucracy is strangling NZ’s potential for growth

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he wants a bureaucracy that says “yes.” He is right to want that of course, but a lot of current rules would need to change.

Under current rules, far too much is too hard. Try expanding a port or hosting a concert at Eden Park. Or try importing building materials or opening a supermarket.