Sunday, September 29, 2013

Mike Butler: Reports steam up global warmers



Australia’s new Prime Minister Tony Abbott sacked Australia's Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery, on an A$180,000 a year working a three-day-a-week job, and put paid to Australia's Climate Commission, a multi-million dollar, allegedly "independent", propaganda outlet set up by Julia Gillard to help give her climate alarmist policies a veneer of scientific credibility. A drop of Abbott's realism would be helpful here in New Zealand. (1)

The global warmers are back in full force ranting about the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 summary for policy makers which is more an opinion poll than a scientific report. Panel scientists are required to rate in terms of degrees of certainty the panel’s pre-ordained views that human-caused global warming will bring doom unless we build more wind farms, stop using fossil fuels, and so on. (2)

Setting aside the fatal flaws in the IPCC propaganda, and assuming that the temperature is warming and CO2 is increasing, one could deduce that would be good for everyone and the planet since a warmer planet with more CO2 would mean longer and better growing seasons in more places, more food, and a better life for everyone.

For those who want a bit of realism on the subject, another summary for policy makers titled “Climate change reconsidered II: Physical science”, from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change that has no formal attachment to or sponsorship from any government or governmental agency, is well worth reading. (3) Here is a summary of NIPCC’s findings.
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is a mild greenhouse gas that exerts a diminishing warming effect as its concentration increases.

• Doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial level, in the absence of other forcings and feedbacks, would likely cause a warming of ~0.3 to 1.1°C, almost 50% of which must already have occurred.

• A few tenths of a degree of additional warming, should it occur, would not represent a climate crisis.

• Model outputs published in successive IPCC reports since 1990 project a doubling of CO2 could cause warming of up to 6°C by 2100. Instead, global warming ceased around the end of the twentieth century and was followed (since 1997) by 16 years of stable temperature.

• Over recent geological time, Earth’s temperature has fluctuated naturally between about +4°C and -6°C with respect to twentieth century temperature. A warming of 2°C above today, should it occur, falls within the bounds of natural variability.

• Though a future warming of 2°C would cause geographically varied ecological responses, no evidence exists that those changes would be net harmful to the global environment or to human well-being.

• At the current level of ~400 ppm we still live in a CO2-starved world. Atmospheric levels 15 times greater existed during the Cambrian Period (about 550 million years ago) without known adverse effects.

• The overall warming since about 1860 corresponds to a recovery from the Little Ice Age modulated by natural multidecadal cycles driven by ocean-atmosphere oscillations, or by solar variations at the de Vries (~208 year) and Gleissberg (~80 year) and shorter periodicities.

• Earth has not warmed significantly for the past 16 years despite an 8% increase in atmospheric CO2, which represents 34% of all extra CO2 added to the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution.

• CO2 is a vital nutrient used by plants in photosynthesis. Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere “greens” the planet and helps feed the growing human population.

• No close correlation exists between temperature variation over the past 150 years and humanrelated CO2 emissions. The parallelism of temperature and CO2 increase between about 1980 and 2000 AD could be due to chance and does not necessarily indicate causation.

• The causes of historic global warming remain uncertain, but significant correlations exist between climate patterning and multidecadal variation and solar activity over the past few hundred years.

• Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions.
Keep an eye on the global warmers. They make a living out of climate doom. Cut off the money and they’re out of business. They’re not going to make one bit of difference to the planet. They will only get money out of your pocket into theirs.

Sources:
1. Australia Shows Us All the Way by Sacking Its Useless, Pointless Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery, http://www.fcpp.org/publication.php/4703
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 summary for policy makers, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf
3. Climate change reconsidered II: Physical science. http://heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

How great to hear someone talking common sense!!!!

Sam Esler said...

If one goes up say the hopkins valley that drains into Lake aohau, you will find yourself in a valley floor. This valley is many kilometres long with many tributaries, according to the shape of the mountains either side of the valley floor there must have been ice clean to the top of these mountains(glacier many hundreds of metres deep). As of this date there is no glacier in the valley, so therefore there must have been global warming going on for sometime now. Or has the mountains rose up from the valley floor?