Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Labour’s industrial revival runs into its own energy policy

This week Andy Burnham promised cheaper energy. John Healey promised a new age of industrialisation. Both gave Labour’s conference faithful something to applaud. Neither promise squares with the warnings from manufacturers that expensive energy is driving production out of Britain, or forecasts of household bills approaching £2,000 a year from January. Ministers even acknowledge that Burnham’s “buy British” grid policy could push bills higher. The applause is easy. Making these promises add up is another matter.

Ligin Joseph: How can the same El Niño cause drought in one part of the world and floods in another?

The Pacific Ocean is warming unusually quickly, and this year’s El Niño has already surpassed previous records. Forecasters expect it to strengthen even further before approaching its usual peak around December.

El Niño, the warm phase of a natural fluctuation in the Earth’s climate system, can reshape weather thousands of miles away, bringing drought to some regions while increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others. To understand why, you need to follow what happens to the Pacific’s warm water – and the air above it.

Dr Geoffrey Duffy: Why ‘Zero-Carbon’ Will Fail to Achieve Climate-Change Targets

Why the ‘zero-carbon dioxide’ intentions will fail to achieve weather and climate-change targets: over 30 additional ‘non-radiation greenhouse-gas’ mechanisms                              

Many countries worldwide are still pushing for ‘Net Zero’ carbon dioxide emissions where any increase in the amounts emitted annually are sequestered at enormous expense. Unfortunately, the single-cause of weather and climate variability has been assigned to the infrared radiation energy interaction with the greenhouse gas GHG carbon dioxide CO₂. Alas this fails to recognize that infrared radiation also impacts ALL the planet simultaneously; land, oceans, as well as a few atmospheric GHG’s.  

Paul Homewood: Greenland’s Icecap Grew This Year

Greenland’s icecap is melting away thanks to global warming, at least that is what we are told. According to the EU’s European State of the Climate 2025 Report, the ice sheet lost 139 Gt last year. They say that is equivalent to about 1.5 times the amount of ice stored in all the glaciers in the European Alps, and raised global mean sea level by 0.4 mm. (A gigatonne is one billion tonnes.) Since 1972, losses have amounted to 5,747 Gt. The rate of ice loss has increased by around five times since the 1980s and is expected to continue increasing beyond the end of the century.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Will the lights go out?

UK

NESO engineer: blackouts are only a matter of time

A National Energy System Operator grid engineer claims problems with the electricity network means power cuts are only “a matter of time”. The engineer described demand, solar and wind forecasting available to control-room staff as “atrocious” and said operators lacked the information needed to anticipate movements on the network. It is less easy for NESO to monitor the output of wind farms, solar panels and batteries, compared with big fossil fuel plants.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Summer is over. Now energy reality bites.

UK

British Gas boss warns of gas storage shortage

The boss of British Gas’s owner has warned the UK is facing the risk of gas shortages this winter as stockpiles fall. “We have almost no gas in storage in the UK for the coming winter, and this is a huge concern as energy security is national security.” The low storage levels leave Britain more open to paying higher prices for shipments of energy.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Tories launch firm power plans

UK

Tories back plan to prioritise firm power

The Conservatives have said that households could save about £540 a year after 2030 if net zero regulations are scrapped with a commitment to make energy as cheap as possible. A report published by centre-right think tank Onward and backed by the Tories said the cost of net zero came to an extra £540 per household a year between 2030 and 2050.

Ashley Church: “He doesn’t believe in climate change”

Back in June, I published an article titled The Prophecy of Catastrophic Climate Change: 50 Years of Failed Predictions.

It wasn’t an argument that the climate never changes, but rather an expose’ of the more than half a century of warnings of climate catastrophe that failed to come true.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: The Big Debate

UK 

The Big Debate

A major debate is underway amongst the centre-right on energy and climate policies. This week, the Telegraph featured a series of opinion pieces by leading thinkers on the subject:

With half of country suffering from drought, Tim Stanley argued conservatives need to take climate change seriously – and our writers responded.

Peter Williams: Swarbrick and her unchallenged claims

If we don't reach climate targets it doesn't matter

Chloe Swarbrick makes ridiculous and outrageous statements, most of which go unchallenged by a sympathetic media.

Here’s the latest nonsense.

Philip Leith: Climate Scientists Clearly Don’t Believe Their Own Tales of Doom

To be referred to as a scientist suggests that someone has studied science, passed exams relevant to their subject and continued to work, exploring that particular field. Most people would consider a scientist as an intelligent human being.

Climate scientists are constantly warning us that if the global level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is not cut the world will suffer badly.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: NESO summertime madness

UK

NESO accused of cover-up over blackout threat

Britain’s grid operator has been accused of covering up system failures that threaten to trigger blackouts. Bosses at the National Energy Systems Operator allegedly ordered control-room staff to hide information that showed the grid was not being run securely, and to not to keep permanent records of operational decisions, to ensure there was no paper trail. Shadow Energy Sec Claire Coutinho has written to the ICO demanding it open an investigation into the alleged incidents.

Mike's Minute: Where are the rules protecting us from legal menaces?

 I've got a couple of questions around Mike Smith. 

Mike is back in the news because of his court case against big polluters. His case got upended by the recent Government move to block what they call "tort-based litigation" over climate change.

John Raine: Canary in a Climate World - When Political and Media Narratives Depart from Scientific Evidence

Richard Prebble commented (22^nd June in Brash and Mitchell) on the problematical operation of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The present article (updated from a Substack post https://jkr31350.substack.com/p/canary-in-a-climate-world) was intended primarily as a review of a new contrarian publication on climate change but again questions the politicisation of the current climate narrative and the very existence of the ETS. It calls again for a more realistic adaptation approach to climate change.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Will Miliband become the Net Zero Chancellor?

UK

Burnham’s Makerfield victory could make Miliband even more dangerous

Burnham said remarkably little about Net Zero during his by-election campaign, but recent reports pubished by his campaign aides suggest his by-election win is unlikely to mean much change on energy. If anything, it raises the prospect of Ed Miliband moving to the Treasury, where he could prove even more influential. As Chancellor, Miliband - who has gone rogue and is no longer speaking to the Prime Minister - would have far greater control over spending and taxation. Rather than abandoning the renewables-first strategy as costs rise, he could seek to shift more of those costs from bills into general taxation and use redistribution to shield households from the political consequences.

Ian Bradford: What is the UK Energy Secretary Thinking? Will UK Citizens Accept these Legally Binding Climate Polices?

UK Energy Secretary Ed Milliband has signed up to a legally binding goal to cut the UK’s carbon (meaning carbon dioxide), emissions by 87% by 2040. To meet this goal, households will need to replace boilers with heat pumps, shift to electric cars and eat 25% less meat and a fifth less dairy.

The climate target, recommended by the Government advisors the Climate Change Committee (CCC), is one of the world’s most ambitious – probably the most ambitious.

Perspective with Andrew Dickens: I think Luxon got the climate change balance right

The biggest story of the week hit on Wednesday. And no, the biggest story of the week wasn’t fare caps on public transport. I mean, that was - they say - a $65 million policy that I reckon is three times that, but it wasn’t the big one.

It wasn’t whether or not Labour had a tent at Fieldays either. I mean, hello - come on.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Coal Power 2030

UK

Net Zero Watch: we need a Coal Power 2030 mission

Britain faces an electricity capacity crunch, because we will soon lose much of our gas-fired fleet. Replacements - either nuclear or gas - will arrive too late. A new paper by Andrew Montford explains that the only option is coal. Politicians will need to come to terms with this painful fact.

Barry Brill: Was our recent extreme flooding caused by an undersea volcano?

If the 2023-26 warming spike was the result of Hunga-Tonga, we need not spend a fortune on strengthening the national infrastructure.

Water, water, everywhere….

New Zealand's summer of 2023 saw catastrophic flooding. In late January, an atmospheric river—a concentrated flowing band of tropical moisture—parked itself over Auckland and a record 261mm fell in just 18 hours. Four people died. Over 19,000 properties were damaged. The economic cost reached NZ$2.2 billion.

Net Zero Watch Samizdat: Full steam ahead

UK

Miliband adopts target to slash emissions by 2040

Government formally tables legislation in Parliament to adopt Seventh Carbon Budget goal to reduce UK greenhouse gas emissions to 87% below 1990 levels by 2040.