The general election is more than a year away but the
battle lines are already forming.
Two combatants, Labour and the Greens, have entered into a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to work together with the simple objective of ousting National from the treasury benches. It creates an interesting dynamic, given NZ First has repeated its view that it would not be part of a coalition that involved the Greens.
Two combatants, Labour and the Greens, have entered into a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to work together with the simple objective of ousting National from the treasury benches. It creates an interesting dynamic, given NZ First has repeated its view that it would not be part of a coalition that involved the Greens.
Now that Labour has stated a clear preference for the
Greens, it makes a post-election coalition arrangement between Labour and NZ
First less likely. NZ First also has a hard-line against working with the Maori
Party (and any other party, which includes the Greens, that wants to put the
Treaty of Waitangi as the core of our constitutional arrangements) so it is
fast running out of dance partners; although it appears content to dance alone!
The outcome of the next general election is already becoming set in stone, but
more on that later.
If a Labour Green coalition were to gain power, what
would it mean for property investors?
Labour has indicated the two-year bright-line test on the
sale of investment property is likely to be extended to five years. That means
in effect, a capital gains tax for most property investors. The Greens 2014
election policy goes one step further by saying it would introduce a capital gains tax on
all realised assets except the family home.
Labour is also likely to ring-fencing rental losses. That
means loses arising from a rental activity could not be offset against other
income in the year the loss was incurred. The loss would have to be carried forward to
offset future rental profits, should there be any.
At the last election the Greens said they would: Lower
the corporate tax-rate from 28c to 27c; increase personal tax rate from 33% to
40% for all income above $140,000; raise trust tax rate from 33% to 40%, create
a state-owned Green Investment Bank to facilitate private capital flowing into
eco-friendly investments. Labour said it would increase the top tax rate to 36
percent on income over $150,000 and raise the trustee income tax rate from 33
to 36%.
The Greens would require all rented houses to have a Warrant
of Fitness "that includes insulation, clean heating, weather tightness and
basic service standards". Labour too would require all rental properties
to have a WOF and has twice attempted to have legislation past in Parliament to
that effect.
From the Green's point of view the pre-nup' agreement
makes sense - they are trying to change the perception of voters so they are
seen as more mainstream and less scary - hence the suit and tie appearance.
Long gone are the bird-infested beards, roman sandals and walk socks.
For Labour the reason for the tie up is less obvious.
Perhaps by demonstrating they can work with the Greens they hope to convince
voters that the Greens are a viable coalition partner. To date, the perception
of a red/green government has not helped Labour - I don't think the MOU will
change that.
A prediction for next years election result? My guess is National
will win the most seats at the next election, but not enough to govern alone.
NZ First is on track to hold the balance of power. It is likely to give
confidence and supply to National but sit on the crossbenches and consider each
policy on a case by case basis, thereby extending its influence for the full
electoral term rather than limiting it to a post election day coalition
agreement.
NZ First is growing its constituency by challenging the
other parties on racial issues, which only they can do without being dismissed
as racists. I continue to believe Shane Jones will re-enter politics as a
candidate for NZ First, and become the leader in waiting.
2 comments:
We keep telling Seymour if he wants to remain a one man act, just keep up the policy of no comment on race based privilege. There are 5% votes there which will head straight to NZ First while Seymour does Superannuation and death with dignity. His position with Super and Death with dignity is noble, but utterly useless from now on till after election.
The election will be about economy stupid, property and tax, and race based privilege.
To a certain extent Brexit is waking us up on the benefits of having an equalitarian society, where your vote counts equally . Seymour is missing in action on our equality issues, in New Zealand Government is also missing and not in action, on this, also RMA and general direction .
People like David Farrar will scream like a baby with an empty milk bottle when Winston holds the Government to account over racist privilege and weak RMA inactivity.
We would think that to see Brash conferring with Peters would be a wake up call. Apparently not.
Tax // Green tax proposals for Trusts are an indication that Trusts are now useless for most people. Probably OK for major land holders, with high service costs.
I do not see the value of increasing personal tax, and lowering Corporate tax, but Green has its own weird philosophy
With M O U, nothing changes. The Greens & Labour have always been bracketed in the left-wing branch of politics. Just note the average age of the Green spokes-people.
All in that under 40 age bracket, that have come through a socialist indoctrinated schooling curriculum. Consequently they believe sincerely, that their generation must save the world from the nasty capitalists who have bought civilization & prosperity to the Western world that we are privileged to be part of. Unfortunately National under Key, has enticed many left leaning voters into its fold, by selling what were once Labour policies, better than Labour could.
We can only hope that N Z first, if in a balance of power position after the next election, is honest & sincere enough, to restore democracy, & insist that the Treaty of Waitangi is honored as it was intended. ONE PEOPLE, ONE COUNTRY, UNDER BRITISH LAW.
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