Banks thought it would be around 7 to 13 per cent. It's landed at 12. A drop of 12.2 per cent to be exact. Officially, it's a recession.
Which we knew anyway didn't we? Seven weeks in lockdown doesn't make for pretty reading on economists' spreadsheets.
We knew it from the struggles we saw around us - from the local greengrocer to the hairdresser to the butchers to the cafes and the retail stores.
But "it's not the size of the fall that matters," according to one bank, "but the size of the rebound".
So will we see a strong bounce back?
Well that depends, I guess, on how many businesses can push through this and are in good enough shape to weather the financial storm.
Our local café shut its doors the other day, thanked customers for their support, and bowed out. Our vet's on the move to cheaper digs as the rent became untenable. Many businesses are either having to reinvent, downsize, or close their doors entirely.
Air NZ's looking to cut more jobs - 385 cabin crew this time, due to low passenger numbers and reduced international routes. According to one report, the airline expects uncertainty for another six months at least, it could be longer.
And that's part of the problem too, isn't it? How long is a piece of string? Predicting the future would be great if all businesses had a crystal ball, but they don't and that means a lot of this clawing back relies on stamina.
Yes, the bottom line is imperative, but there will be many relying on guts and determination and grit too.