Ross Meurant: Election Prediction

Within a ‘tent’ of politically astute colleagues with whom I have been assessing the political parody which plagues our fast-disappearing paradise, a distasteful outcome emerged over tea and cakes and that is:

The next general election, will see National and Labour form a coalition.

Whereas WW2 was used as justification for a similar route last century, this next display of unity will present the economy as the justification for perfidy.

The real reasons might better be described as:

Anything goes to get one’s hands on the levers of power.

In the case of Labour:

(a) Labour will get about 30 percent of the vote and massively reduced electorate seats. Note: The once in nine elections outright win by Labour i.e., no coalition partner required in 2020, won’t be repeated. Therefore, a coalition partner is essential.

(b) Maori Party is too extreme as a collation partner, even for Labour, which has always seen itself as the true political face of mainstream Maori. (1)

(c) “Woke” does not resonate with traditional conservative Labour voters (such as my maternal grandfather).

(d) Greens are a closet enemy taking list votes from Labour.

(e) Greens won’t have sufficient List votes to make a Labour Green collation – without radical Maori.

(f) Paradoxically National displays a distinctly “woke” flavour and appears not to have taken the challenge to stop Labour’s crusade to elevate Maori rights above all other Kiwis. 

Conclusion? Labour National coalition.

In the case of National:

(a) National will get about 30 per cent of the vote with a major recovery of electorates but few list MPs. Therefore, a coalition partner is essential.

(b) ACT will get a big list vote but maybe not enough for a National ACT collation.

(c) Maori Party is too extreme for the conservative voters who will deliver the electorates back to National.

(d) Greens don’t count with conservative rural Natz.

(e) Labour “woke” virus is rampant in National

(f) National is not united against the Maori policies of Labour.

Conclusion? National Labour coalition.

PS I am not anti Maori. In fact, I have royal Māori pedigree. I am however anti elevation of one ethnic group above all other. (2)

The TENT?

The ‘tent’ is a cabal of colleagues with vast political experience. Full disclosure of its activities during the past 18 months would probably stun many. Former MPs, successful business and primary industries players are included among hard core supporters of National as it was.

“National as it was”, pre 2020 election performance when the party lost over four hundred thousand supporters.

“National as it was”, before National’s current ambivalence on equality for all before the law and their apparent affection for “woke” rather than “wakeup” and save New Zealand.

One member of “the tent” has wool board pedigree and was with me when I formed the first political party under MMP i.e. Right of Centre party. (3) Another has several primary industries board positions. Another is a financial adviser - female to boot. Two, predictably, are ex cops. And, we have the inevitable lawyer tag along.

RoC was named reflecting the centre right economic philosophy I had come to embrace during my three terms elected as National’s representative for what is now more or less the Northland seat.

RoC later adopted the name of Conservatives but failed at the polls as with every other party formed subsequent to the introduction of Jim Anderton’s preferred option of systems presented to the public by Jim Bolger, as an alternative to First Past the Post.

MMP was the worst possible choice in my view, and along with a former National MP colleague Graeme Reeves, I was hostile to the concept from day one.

ACT survived because National finally realised that unless they gave an electorate to a minor party, they would not have the numbers to form a government. Richard Prebble returned to the House via Wellington Central. (4)

Jim Anderton and Winston Peters were already set up as electorate MPs.

Which brings us back to the fact that the MMP window opened by Jim Bolger, now ensures that the next government for New Zealand will be a coalition.

I’ve made a prediction. Your call.

Oh. One more factor. Winston. Not a minnow. (5) (6)

While Winston is drawing reasonable audiences around the country, he is not making the impact that he has previously, but never write him off. If he picked up Julian Batchelor, that might get him over the line as he needs a hard single message. But Batchelor’s message may not resonate with Shane Jones.

Footnotes:

1. Labour deserves the Māori vote given the all of the favour in funds, open representative doors, co-governance and special rights they have granted Māori at the cost of significant political capital from those previous conservative Labour supporters who find this favour abhorrent - some of whom are attracted to Julian Batchelor's meetings.
2. https://www.hobsonspledge.nz/ross_meurant_re_writing_history_to_suit_contemporary_agendas_will_produce_blowback_from_ordinary_kiwis
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Conservative_Party
4. ACT in the Provinces will do well with list votes, going nearer to 20% than 10% - with National voters breaking from tradition and splitting their constituency and list votes.
5. Matt King's - democracy outfit have lost some of their best people and lost their momentum as a consequence. The other minors – Christians included - are not going anywhere.
6. A wasted vote of up to 10% looks likely.

Ross Meurant. B.A. M.P.P. Former police inspector. Former Member of Parliament.