Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Bob Jones: The Polls

On and on the political commentators go, babbling sheer nonsense about the bloody polls. They shouldn’t need me to tell them; the polls do not work with politics anymore and haven’t done since the turmoil after-effect of Rogernomics which threw our hitherto political predictability into uncertainty. Specifically, they turned the former National-Labour split into a new, arguably better scenario in which the biggest voting bloc was now centralist and open-minded.

It’s a disgrace that our political journalists don’t do their homework. Have they forgotten Jim Bolger’s famous post-1993 election utterance, “Bugger the polls” in which after only a single term, and contrary to the polls, he nearly lost the election. Or more recently, the Auckland mayoralty election which, according to the polls called a 50/50 result but produced a huge landslide for Wayne Brown. And thank God for that. At last a mayor interested in cost-cutting rather than indulgent spending.

Two years back on this blog I accurately forecast Jacinda would announce her resignation in late December 2022, or alternatively, early January this year, as indeed she did. To work that out wasn’t hard albeit no-one has had sufficient curiosity to ask me why, one reason why I shall very soon end this blog.

As I’ve said for over 2 years now, we’re looking at a massive landslide in the coming election in which Labour will be decimated. The hopeless Greens will survive through some disenchanted Labour voters giving them their vote. Act will gain 20ish MPs, thank God again (even though he doesn’t exist) as they may hopefully be able to introduce grossly overdue changes and in particular end the undemocratic maori bias nonsense.

And what of Winston? Being half-maori he, as always, with his finger to the wind, will have a monopoly in speaking the truth on the outrageously undemocratic maori favouritism which just may garner him the necessary 5%. But if he marginally falls short then these anti-government votes will see 3 or 4 more Labour MPs remain, than would otherwise occur.

Meanwhile, it’s deja-vu of 1984 when a desperately flailing Muldoon travelled the world being photographed with diverse world-leaders. Hipkins is doing like-wise but it won’t garner him a single vote and in 3 months he will find himself yesterday’s man, as with Muldoon back in 1984.

Meanwhile, it would certainly help the Nats if someone would tell Luxon to take his bloody hands out of his pockets as he so often is shown in photographs. That said, far too much is made of the leaders’ image by journoes as an election factor as repeated elections prove. None were more so than Churchill being dumped shortly after the war ended despite being widely accorded “great leader” saviour status.

Sir Bob Jones is a renowned author, columnist , property investor, and former politician, who blogs at No Punches Pulled HERE.


Badger said...

At the risk of sounding facetious then.....why? (I don't want your blog to end.)

Anonymous said...

OK so why did you predict Ardern would leave December/January?

Kiwialan said...

Sir Bob, your writings are one of the few things that help me retain my sanity. Please keep your words rolling on. Kiwialan.

Andrew Osborn said...

Since landlines were removed for most of us, I don't see how the pollsters can achieve a random selection of punters anymore.
If they're calling cellphone numbers, I would hazard a guess that half of cell phones in this country are held by people who are ineligible to vote either through age or lack of a residence permit. So, are they calling teenagers and getting their polling data based on that? Are they polling people who aren't even registered to vote or have never voted?
If they're relying on focus groups, or a fixed set of people, then it ceases to be a random selection of the voting population.

Maybe someone with experience in this field can tell what polling method are used today.

Bryan alexander, said...

Please dont go SIR BOB.I think we all know the polls are used to guide the unthinking towards a chosen goal.By who ?