Graham Adams: Media talks up Winston Peters’ rise

The path to election glory has traps.

NZ First’s prospects at the election after a run of good polling are being talked up by increasingly enthusiastic commentators. But if a week is a long time in politics, more than six months is an eternity. And there are traps aplenty for the party to navigate before November 7.

Listening to the media, however, you might think the continuing rise of Winston Peters and NZ First is unstoppable.

Duncan Garner: The Panel - More Pressure on Luxon, As Winston Continues to Rise

Christopher Luxon, National Party leadership, Winston Peters, polling trends, co-governance and tax reform all come under the microscope on today’s Editor in Chief panel. 

Joined by Maurice Williamson and Ashley Church, we unpack whether Luxon can survive mounting pressure as another poor poll is released. 

Is there actually a viable alternative, or is National stuck with the leader it has? We also explore why polls drive political decision-making more than anyone admits, and how Winston Peters’ rise could reshape the election. 

There’s also a deep dive into co-governance, including unelected representation in council decision-making, and why this issue is firing up voters.

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Mike's Minute: Let's take a proper look at the polls

For what it's worth, let me have a crack at the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll.

Firstly, officially, I pay no attention to them other than a broad theme i.e. a collection of polls and an overarching trend.

The trend continues in this latest poll with the Government being re-elected by a fairly heavy margin, 65 seats to 55.

Bruce Cotterill: Christopher Luxon v Chris Hipkins - What voters should expect from a PM

Those who follow such matters will have noticed that the Prime Minister seems reluctant to comment on the polls.

And who can blame him? I wouldn’t want to comment either. Although my reasons may be different to his.

I’d be reluctant to comment because I can’t believe they’re accurate. Incidentally, such a comment should not be read as me questioning the pollsters. But I really have to question the people they have participating.

Mike's Minute: Why we should, and shouldn't, pay attention to polls

There are reasons to ignore political polls this year.

And some reasons not to.

Point of Order: NEW POLL - New Zealand First’s record high result; country direction takes a hit

The Taxpayers’ Union reports –

New Zealand First rise to their highest ever result in a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll (polling since January 2021). The Coalition also strengthen their lead.

The poll shows Labour gain 2.8 points to 34.4 percent, while National gains 1.5 points to 31.5 percent.

Perspective with Ryan Bridge: National's strategy is looking riskier by the day

These polls that keep showing Labour ahead of National are a sign of how crap the economy is.

Up until a few weeks ago, I was ignoring polls because Labour didn't have any policy. Labour was ahead, but it didn't have any policy.

JC: We Are Well and Truly ‘Browned’ Off

The more the discontent with this government by its supporters grows, the more it seems the government is determined to show us the middle finger. Much of the issue surrounds the ‘Māorification’ of this country because what they promised they would do is not what they are in fact doing. It would appear that they are taking every opportunity to find pathways to incorporate a Māori perspective into legislation on any flimsy pretext.

Mike's Minute: Why do we still listen to polls?

The polling industry, whose only answer to fairly obvious questions seems to be “this is just a snapshot in time”, may have trouble explaining the past week of polling in this country.

There was one on Tuesday night and one on Wednesday morning. They have completely different results.

Kerre Woodham: How can we take polls seriously?

Honestly, I don't know why we report on polls. Seriously, I don't know why I'm even talking about them myself, but it's really ripped my nightie overnight. They're so frustrating, and because media companies commission them, it makes the media look like master manipulators.

Grant Duncan: Luxon and Hipkins ranked on their mid-term prospects...

‘Politically weakened’ or ‘muddling through’ – Luxon and Hipkins ranked on their mid-term prospects

We’re roughly half way through this parliamentary term, and it looks as though the 2026 election could deliver “Christopher vs Chris: the sequel”.

Neither leader is currently riding high, though. National’s Christopher Luxon and Labour’s Chris Hipkins are both scoring in the low 20s in the most recent preferred prime minister polls.

JC: Coughlan Spins a Web on Poll Numbers

The spurious 1News Verian Poll produced results of orgasmic heights of delight to journalists on the left. Maiki Sherman appeared briefly to swap her priceless Maori heritage for Irish as she jigged around our television screens while spouting as much blarney as she could think of. It was an infantile example of just how far the standard of journalism in this country has sunk. One News is the leader in this exercise of blatant bias and mischief, with Stuff and others of the mainstream media not far behind. Thomas Coughlan is another who no doubt found the results of the poll to his liking.

Clive Bibby: We can’t afford to cut and run

The responses from the usual suspects to the recent TVOne opinion poll are not unexpected but the real danger of treating it as anything other than a snapshot in time is a concern.

For the MSM and what remains of the last irresponsible “free spending” Government, this result is a bit of welcome good news that could be interpreted to mean their days of baying at the moon may be shorter lived than had been previously thought.

Suze Wilson: Luxon’s leadership test

Luxon’s leadership test: what would it take to win back unimpressed NZ voters?

Christopher Luxon’s sacking of two struggling cabinet ministers last week was praised by pundits as a sign of decisive – even “brutal” and “ruthless” – leadership. But this week’s 1News-Verian poll suggests the public is far less convinced of his leadership performance.

Based on those poll numbers, the National-led coalition would be out of office if an election were held now. And Luxon’s “preferred prime minister” rating fell further to 23%.

Professor Robert MacCulloch: Can Polls Drive Election Results under MMP?

Short answer: Yes, they can

The Centre for Mathematical Social Sciences at Auckland University held a conference last year that I attended. Part of the discussion centered on what is the best voting system for a country to have, a field called "social choice" which lies at the junction of economics and mathematics. NZ of course moved away from the UK-style First-Past-the-Post system to a German-style Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMP) system many years ago.

Adrian Beaumont: Polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority

While the tide well and truly went out on Labour on election night, there are still several factors complicating the formation of a National and ACT coalition government. Special votes are yet to be counted, with the official final result still three weeks away.

In past elections special votes have boosted the left parties. If that is the case this year, we won’t know by how much until November 3. Consequently, the preliminary results may be slightly skewed against the left.

Adrian Beaumont: NZ Election 2023

Final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling closely.

The emergence of NZ First as potential kingmaker has seen warnings, particularly from the National Party, of an indecisive result and even the possible need for a second election if coalition negotiations broke down.

Peter Wilson: Week in Politics - On the campaign trail

The latest polls show Labour's flagship policy promise hasn't worked, next week's leaders debate could be its last chance. Treasury's PREFU warns there's no more money to spare, pressure mounts on National to explain its "mansion tax" policy and Winston Peters edges closer to a comeback.

Monday's Newshub-Reid Research poll was the most important of the campaign so far.

It was taken after Labour announced its flagship dental care policy - and it hasn't worked.

Adrian Beaumont: NZ election 2023 - Current polls

Combined poll trends now show a clear rightward shift since June

With exactly one month until New Zealand’s general election, all major polls are now showing a clear rightward trend since June.

With some recent polls showing New Zealand First on or above the 5% MMP threshold, the only real wildcard at this point is whether the party will be returned to parliament after October 14.

Kate Hawkesby: The polls four weeks out from election

I’m wondering at this point who’s more obsessed with the election, the media, the politicians, or the voters.  

The bulk of the feedback I’m getting at the moment is: we’re over it, open early voting, let’s get on with it, we just want change and a new direction. So as the politicians ramp up the campaigns and the polling starts spewing out percentages, and we begin crunching numbers and policy's getting released... who’s listening and watching? Over the weekend several policies got released - how many can you name or do you care about?