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The New Zealand public has sent a decisive message to Labour – they’ve had enough of the drama.
Labour’s series of scandals have sent it on a downward spiral, with the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll giving National and ACT the numbers to comfortably form a Government.
There will be no happy chappies or ‘Chippys’ in the Labour camp after these results.
Labour has dived back down into the low 30s. At 32.3 percent, Labour has fallen 3.6 points, back to the exact same result it got in this poll just before Christmas last year.
That was before Jacinda Ardern stepped down as leader, before its great reset.
Labour’s loss is National’s gain, popping head – but perhaps not quite shoulders – above to 36.6 percent. It’s up 1.3 points.
It’s the minor parties having a major moment. Voters are drifting away from the two motherships, with ACT inching towards teens. It’s on 12.1 percent, up 1.3 points.
The Greens are also shooting up too. It’s on 9.6 percent, up 1.5 points.
Moving to the minnows, here is the comeback king – Winston Peters. New Zealand First is on 4.1 percent, up 1.1 points, within breathing distance of the 5 percent threshold needed to get back into Parliament.
Te Pati Maori has slipped slightly. It’s down 0.8 to 2.7 percent. The Opportunities Party is down 0.5 to 1.5 percent. The New Conservatives are at 0.7 percent, with no change. Newshub
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National/Act have a slim majority and it looks like NZ First is going to be back in Parliament. In two polls they are over 5%, and this one is close.
Which makes David Seymour’s idiot remarks yesterday morning about refusing to work with NZ First baffling.
Maybe he is scared about the predictable and inevitable rise of NZ First.
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Look at the trends; they are far more important than the headline numbers. We are back to traditional polling patterns. We are also starting to see the collapse of Labour’s vote and we are also seeing that split amongst the minor parties rather than pouring into National’s side of the ledger.
No wonder Chippy has been rendered speechless:
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There is still plenty more life in this campaign, but I believe now that we will be seeing a change of Government come October.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE
2 comments:
How good was it to see Seymour refusing to work with NZ First. If ACT and National can govern on their own which looks increasingly probable why would anyone want to work with that serial liar Winston . If National would take the same stand then voters would realize a vote for NZ First is a wasted vote and that would be the end of Winston.
A National/ACT/ NZFirst coalition if they stop seeing each other as rivals/enemies could be a coalition of considerable strength. ACT is silly in not seeing the ability of NZ First to support ACTs views on co-governance, -while the Nats seem lukewarm on their opposition to cogovernance. I think Jacinda resigned because she realised that she was riding the back of a tiger and could no longer control her Maori caucus. Similarly with some Labour MPs their invisibility and apparent lack of enthusiasm about the coming election indicates to me that they too have begun to have serious reservations about the notion of co-governance and the implicit threats from the Maori caucus about their support of Labour being dependent on Labour fulfilling their Maori aims. Hopkins likes to appear as this likeable young politician with moderate views, but don’t forget how he has enabled Maori radicals to change the NZ history and Science curriculum into a giant propaganda exercise that will influence our younger students in a way that provides neither balance nor integrity.
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