Kate Hawkesby: Does NZ First stand a chance with National?

We went to Christchurch at the weekend, and we were waiting to board the plane and a woman comes up to us and says to Mike, “Just wanted to say I love your show, I listen all the time, but I have to say I think you’re wrong about Winston.”  

First things first, this woman was under 70 years old. She looked about mid-40’s I guess, so not your average Winston supporter.  

Mike replies, “What do you mean?”. She says, “You’re wrong about him not having enough support, I reckon he’ll be in government, he’s going to get at least 5 percent.” Mike replies, “Are you insane?” Which, personally, I’ve always thought is a weird way to address your listeners in public, by asking them if they’re insane, but hey, who am I to judge.

So she goes on to point out all the reasons why she thinks Winston’s in: ‘he’s getting lots of talk,’ ‘people are listening to him,’ ‘there’s buzz,’ etc. All the stuff that on a statistical graph ranks absolutely nowhere; it’s more a ‘feeling’ than anything logical or statistically based, but she's adamant.  

So Mike goes on to debate with her the reasons why he thinks Winston won’t make it, and I’m just sitting there hoping they call our flight soon... but she’s not buying it, she’s clearly into Winston.  

Here’s the thing though – in order to get to be in government and achieve any of the things his fan base are liking the sound of, a major player, as in a main political party, has to want him there, and offer him a seat at the table. And so far, that’s not happening.  

Yesterday even Labour ruled him out. Which, to be fair, didn’t make a lot of sense given he’s already ruled out working with them anyway– but no one believed that given last time, so to now have Hipkins not just rule him out but also chastise his party as being a bit obsessed with toilets, not real issues, could mean any prospective partnership there is really over. Although never rule out Winston changing his mind.  

But here’s the thing with all this – has Hipkins snookered Luxon here? Luxon had ample opportunity to rule Winston out months ago and never did, has he now left it too late? Is he now looking like the only leader left who's possibly going to get lumped with Winston? And if he doesn’t rule him out now, does Winston continue to gain traction in the polls?  

My husband during his random conversation the airport with the total stranger did point out that Winston tends to poll higher than he gets on the night – much like the Greens, but as the pundits always say – can we really ever rule Winston out?  

So is Luxon left in a quandary now? If he doesn’t rule him out is he leaving the door open for a possible coalition containing two parties who hate each other – ACT and NZ First? Or does he rule him out now and run the risk of not having enough numbers on the night and finding he actually needs him?  

So I get the dilemma he’s facing, it’s an unenviable position to be in. I’d be bullish though if it were me, I’d rule Winston out, on principle, and be confident I could get the numbers in the night. But does Luxon have the backbone? That’s the question... and we may not get an answer for a while yet.

Kate Hawkesby is a political broadcaster on Newstalk ZB - her articles can be seen HERE.