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Monday, October 9, 2023

Cam Slater: Is That Desperation I Can Smell?


Nothing says desperation quite like concocting a scenario that has never happened in nine elections under MMP. Yet here we are, just six days out from the election, with National screaming and ranting that we could have a second election if they can’t do a deal with NZ First.

The National Party has ramped up its efforts to try to stop NZ First holding the balance of power by raising the prospect of a second election, warning there was “a very real and growing possibility” National could not get a deal done, or of a hung parliament.

It comes as polls show it is increasingly likely National will need both NZ First and Act to form a government, despite National leader Christopher Luxon’s pleas to voters to deliver a clear two-party hand to him.

National’s campaign chair Chris Bishop said there was a scenario in which the left and right blocs got 60 seats all – “that chance is a real one and growing.”

“The second scenario is when there is essentially a hung Parliament and NZ First is in the middle, but it is just impossible to do a deal between National, Act and NZ First. That is a very real and growing possibility and that would necessitate, essentially, a second election.”

“We are concerned there would be an inability to strike a deal in the interests of the country.

“We will pick up the phone if we have to and try to make it work. But there is a real possibility of the necessity of a second election and it’s a growing one, unless people cast a strong vote for change.”
NZ Herald

Let’s get this straight, National are telling us that their great leader, a man steeped in business and successfully running an airline in the past, thinks he can’t cut a deal with NZ First?

Did I get that right? From where I’m looking, it seems they are indeed saying that.

Can you guys verify my view? This is hard to understand. I can’t think of any policy areas where NZ First will stop National doing most of what they want.

It really comes down to the fact that National have yet again been caught flat-footed. They were similarly caught when Jacinda Ardern jacked in her job when she ‘apparently’ ran out of gas. Now they’ve been caught again, with a scenario that they clearly never even contemplated.

There has never been a second election in nine MMP elections. Each and every time a government has been able to be formed. This is desperate scaremongering from the National Party.

They have been running out the lines about how we can’t afford a delay for coalition negotiations. They obviously sent a memo out, because some of my Nat friends were running these lines to my face and here on this site a couple of days before it started to run in media.

They forget that’s how MMP is intended to work, they also forget constitutional facts like the delay in having writs returned and special votes counted. It is arrogant and presumptuous and it just reeks of the National Party believing they have the right to govern.

You can destroy that narrative in a New York minute by just asking them how many sitting days they are planning on before Christmas. The answer will be stuff all, and then you can hammer the nail home by asking them if things are so imperative will they work through the Christmas/New Year parliamentary hiatus that doesn’t really end until February.

But, in the past few days we have seen the fear ramp up too. The Nats and ACT have rolled out person after person, including John Key and now Bryce McKenzie from Groundswell.

Join the dots: Groundswell–The Campaign Company–Jordan Williams–Taxpayers’ Union–ACT Party. Groundswell is just another shill for the ACT Party. The ACT Party are trying to stop the bleeding of their votes.

If National can’t or won’t do a deal with NZ First and force a new election, it will be National and ACT that get punished in the polls.

This whole debacle just smacks of desperation from National and indeed ACT. This behaviour is ultimately anti-democratic and designed to subvert people’s democratic rights.

And desperation is a stinky cologne that will only drive more votes to NZ First…and empower Winston Peters to drive a very hard bargain.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I already wrote to my local National candidate and stated I wouldn't be voting for him because of this nonsense scaremongering, even if he is the only other candidate with any chance of beating the labour candidate. He has everything to lose and nothing gain from this nonsense.

Ross said...

"National’s campaign chair Chris Bishop said there was a scenario in which the left and right blocs got 60 seats all – “that chance is a real one and growing.”

That is admission of failure by Bishop. NZ has endured the worst Government in living memory and he says National and partners cannot smash the opposition. It is a continuation of National's abysmal performance as an opposition party.

National are still thinking in 1990's type political ways. Making a tinkering of tax their main policy when NZ is at the verge of falling over the "financial cliff", is a good example.

Anonymous said...

Oh my word yes - how they reveal their incompetence. I want to vote ACT - but I'm glad to be waiting until Saturday 14. Not only are Seymour and Luxon revealing their inadequacy in the actual art of governing i.e. negotiation, they stupidly fail to recognise the basic cussedness in the NZ psyche - "Right then! If they are picking on Winston so unreasonably, I'm going to vote for him!"
I do not actually believe that NZ First has the infrastructure to govern, but I do perceive their very real strengths - especially with Costello and Jones. People blame Winston for Labour's reign, forgetting to acknowledge that it was not until he left them after the first term, that the heinous He Puapua could be revealed, and the racist co-governance be so deceitfully and irregularly proceeded. These despicable people could be returned to power if these idiots do not change their ways

Robert Arthur said...

it is a weird message from National. If they were so dismissive of NZF in the past, little wonder NZF went with Labour. The current reponse is likely to send more to NZF than to Nationa,. with its wishy washy approach to co governace, sanctionig of it for Councils, and its apparent acceptance of the maorification campaign generally.

Anonymous said...

I'm with you Robert. 'Wishy washy Luxon is - and Seymour much more competent but spiteful. Both need to understand that the art of politics is negotiation - not bull-dozing.

Anonymous said...

There is a very significant cohort of voters that have had enough of the Labour/Greens maorification of everything and given their truly shocking handling of the economy, it should have been 'a walk in the park' for National to romp home, provided it was prepared to put a stake in the ground. Luxon has been loath to do it and hence why voters are looking to ACT and NZF.
But, if they really want change and a reversal of the path we're following, they are fooling themselves if they think Peters won't do a cop out with Luxon when the going gets tough.

Anonymous said...

Well until today it was going to be Act, but after 'they" have been going after NZ First. They dont like it up em - Corporal Jones :)

Anonymous said...

I have read with interest the article by Cam, who over past articles on the current general election et al, and it is obvious that Cam has become an
"avid fan of Winston Peters", to Cam - " My good Sir you need to go back to the time Winston entered Parliament, as the MP for Tauranga - and it went down hill from there". all this historical data is available for anyone to read on the internet. Oh and how people forget that "he (Winston) held NZ to ransom for 60 days??, whilst he negotiated a NZ First deal with ? Labour/Helen Clark - who along with Michael Cullen (and no doubt other Labour MP's) developed serious dislike for him across the 9 years that Helen was PM.

You also need to keep in mind, at that time Winston stated he would never work with National.

David Seymour, at a ACT Party Political meeting (I was present) was asked by a member of the Public, " Would he work with Winston"? David made it very clear, NO (and why)- and received a round of applause from those present.

For many New Zealander's, Mr Luxon has not come across as being the most positive guy, but at the time of his selection as Leader, go look at what was happening within National ranks, then in Parliament, and if you can find a list of those members names (then) - you pick the person, who you think should have led National. Remember they had already " marched one a.. hole", out the door" - he is now the CEO, AK Chamber of Commerce, bless him.

Oh, the other thing, since Chris Luxon has "Led" - look at the change of Party involvement since then. Compare with what happened prior. Can you say the same about Labour?

New Zealand wants a change - and I have said this previously, Labour has alot more support out across the Country, and there is every possible chance they could regain the Treasury seats, not happy with that then YOU know who you should vote for.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I cannot understand National's approach to the current situation. It shows an unexpected degree of contempt for the NZ electorate, and perhaps even more significantly for his own voting base. Why do they even think they have more in common with ACT than with NZ First? Or is it just antipathy towards Winston Peters -- maybe combined with the fear that he will overshadow Luxon as a political force? At any rate, scaremongering is a foolish strategy, much like Seymour's suggestion a few weeks ago that ACT might give the new government confidence but not supply, which resulted in ACT's poll numbers dropping significantly. People in NZ want a stable government for sure, but they also want a government that fosters unity not division.