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Monday, July 28, 2025

Pee Kay: Civil Wars Tend to Happen Gradually, Then Suddenly!


In his 1926 novel, “The Sun Also Rises,” Ernest Hemingway’s main character described bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” in response to a question about how bankruptcy happened.

This concept can easily apply to, not only bankruptcy, but to civil war.

The phrase highlights that the build-up to a crisis can be subtle and prolonged, making it easy to underestimate the potential for a sudden and dramatic collapse or conflagration.

Civil wars typically arise from a combination of long-term social, economic, and political tensions, which can be exacerbated by specific events or crises, leading to a sudden and violent outbreak of conflict.

The most important single factor that engenders civil disorder/violence is when a country’s political system doesn’t organise around the traditional left and right leaning political values but around societal issues such as identity, race, religion or ethnicity.

This sectarianism was predominant when, after the second world war, the old, historic colonial empires were being dismantled; ethnic and religious factions, questing for power and control, were the genesis for factionalised conflict. By the late 20th century, such rifts lay at the heart of most civil wars.

The second most powerful factor was if a government wasn’t a full democracy or a full autocracy, but something in between.

Now, consider whether abandoning equality of suffrage, the right to vote or one person one vote, that fundamental human right in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Does that move a country into that precarious zone?

When governments are clearly less than democratic, disregarding the peoples voice and lean towards an authoritarian persona, ignoring the majority, then the once-dominant groups in society are prone to losing political status and power and as such, when there is no obvious political solution, it is fertile ground for a state of Anocracy to evolve.

Anocracy is a form of government where there is still a semblance of democracy but it embraces authoritarian like characteristics, disregarding the will and the roundly expressed preference of the majority. Anocracy blends democratic with autocratic features.

Anocracies differ from autocracies and democracies through their power and ability to maintain authority, manage tense political dynamics, and push their provocative policy agendas.

The disenfranchised and excluded groups in anocracies, those that are dominated and overlooked by a government that promotes ethnic or religious favouritism, tend to be the genesis of social unrest and turmoil. The marginalised majority will accept discrimination, powerlessness and exclusion for only so long. Then the loss of hope and direction becomes the tipping point.

That is when the disenfranchised group looks into the future and sees nothing but continuing frustration due to the exclusion from the democratic process and the endorsement of minority interests, that they start to see violence as their only path to the correction of wrongs.

Once this point is reached, we are then likely to see the emergence of hard line, nationalistic politicians all too ready to exploit the pent-up anger, resentment and disillusionment, so then the risks of civil disobedience escalating into insurrection increase exponentially.

Much as Ernest Hemingway described bankruptcy, civil wars tend to happen “gradually, then suddenly.”

We only have to look back to the German people’s support for Adolf Hitler’s rise to power. Hitlers rise was quite a complex phenomenon. His rise was fuelled by a combination of factors, a perfect storm of sorts.

These included severe financial hardship due to the ongoing influence of reparations following the First World War, the worldwide economic impact of the great depression, rampant inflation, the marginalisation of a sector of society reinforced by an amazingly effective, yet totally fraudulent propaganda machine that controlled the media. Once in power, Hitler then systematically dismantled democratic institutions to consolidate his authority.

Anything sounding familiar here?

Should this government continue with its ethnic favouritism through co-governance, co-governance deceptively empowered with the right of veto, the subversion of democracy and the promotion of Maori influence and exclusivity we move ever closer to a possible flashpoint that is very, very scary!

Anocracy and the subsequent, terrible pathway it can lead to, could, with no major stretch of the imagination, tear the fabric of our wonderful country so far apart recovery would be a long and torturous process.

This is a recognised pathway as overseas insurrections have proven!

The “Maori Elite” are driving the separatism agenda. Their intent is full Maori Sovereignty and this is where the vulnerability and menace lies for New Zealand!

That is when New Zealand would find itself under Ethnocratic Rule!

Their regime would be termed an Ethnocracy: An ethnocracy is a state where governance, including the distribution of power, control and personal rights, is based on specific ethnic factors such as your ancestry. We would witness an ethnic group controlling the state and its institutions all at the expense of other citizens.

This control would manifest itself in various ways. Political power, and the attendant wealth of course, preferential treatment, preferential access to resources, preferential access to social institutions and services such as health and welfare. Even personal property would not be beyond the reach of those in control!

The Jacinda Ardern, ably tailed by Chris Hipkins, Labour governments of 2017-2023 set New Zealand on the dangerous pathway to an Ethnocracy using two contrived validations; The spurious and fabricated fallacy that the treaty was signed as a PARTNERSHIP and the hugely undemocratic, all encompassing, CO-GOVERNANCE.

Ominously our current government, a coalition government mandated to restore the democratic underpinnings of our country, is overlooking that dictate of the ballot box and accomplishing exactly the opposite!

Prime Minister Luxon needs a lesson on what happens when you allow an Ethnocracy to develop. Look at Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, Iran for example.

Because of their majorities, Zimbabwe and South Africa do not exactly fit the Ethnocracy category, but the inter-tribal belligerence and social disintegration would be the same for New Zealand.

Were an authoritarian style government, such as an Ethnocracy, to depower the majority, ignore their protestations (protests are principally about hope… It’s when protests fail to effect change that hope diminishes and violence is the lever within easy reach) and provoke hostility through ethnicity, what do the disenchanted and disenfranchised do next?

So, we have to ask the questions; Could this happen in New Zealand? Who would want this for New Zealand?

Given their bigoted posturing, it seems a contingent of the Maori Elite and militants, “the usurpers of democracy” do!

So confident appears Prime Minister Luxon, in his discriminatory agenda to redress the erroneous claims of indigeneity and sovereignty, that any move to repudiate the power sharing and equity that are now embedded in all sectors of New Zealand society is doomed to failure.

We have reached a point where government action in any area that is not acceptable to Maori will immediately instigate a physical challenge and then elicit a legal challenge in the courts.

You have to ask, just who is controlling New Zealand?

Many New Zealanders now consider successive governments, pursuing a line of appeasement, have empowered Maori elite through co-governance and even outright control, have legitimised the Maori elite and their claims of sovereignty to the extent that, were Prime Minister Luxon able to find a backbone, find the ability to grasp what the majority sense and what the majority have need of, any move such as a referendum on democracy, even if supported by a majority, would trigger serious unrest and Luxon will never risk this occurrence!

The tail wagging the dog and/or a minority calling the shots?

The 83% are not in a good place! We are governed by fools with feet of clay it seems!

Why are you determined to “save” the few but imperil the many Prime Minister Luxon?

Pee Kay writes he is from a generation where common sense, standards, integrity and honesty are fundamental attributes. This article was first published HERE

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

All National,Act and NZ First MPs need to read this and think!!! Do you really understand the implications of the decisions you are making??? Often no decision is just as bad as a bad decision, you cannot look the other way any longer

Anonymous said...

Pretty much spot on PK. Why do you think so many are leaving this sinking ship? The coalition have only slowed the demise, had labour, greens tpm go in we would really be stuffed.

Anonymous said...

“Their regime would be termed an Ethnocracy: An ethnocracy is a state where governance, including the distribution of power, control and personal rights, is based on specific ethnic factors such as your ancestry. We would witness an ethnic group controlling the state and its institutions all at the expense of other citizens”.

Yeah, just like occupying apartheid Israel.

Anonymous said...

There is a further cause of division in NZ and that is inter-tribal conflict. Maori are united against the Pakeha, but as soon as Pakeha are out of the picture they are at each other's throats. That's why the chiefs signed the Treaty in the first place. Maori's recent behavior and their aversion to science and civilized behaviour suggests that many haven't progressed much since pre-colonial times.

CXH said...

I think it is to late to stop. Our younger generations are taught to accept tribal rule is the way forward. Once it happens I think NZ will split in half and become two countries. Ngai Tahu have been very clever. Early settlement, no real crazy claims. Discounting that the South Island belongs to them as it was never sold. Their biggest advantage is they are almost the only Iwi there. The small group in the north will be given an offer they can't refuse. Be absorbed or be forced out. They will welcome investment and people. It will always involve some form of koha and homage, but they will make it work for most. Mining, farming etc will be encouraged, money will be made.

The North Island will be torn apart by tribal jealousy and old grievances. Those that can will move south, taking their money and jobs with them. There will be a few enclaves left for the wealthy to have their holiday homes in gated communities. But private security would be needed,naling with helipads. It would become the hell hole of the Pacific, not just Russell, but the whole North Island.

Allen Heath said...

Is it a coincidence that quasi-military, semi-automatic weapons were deemed illegal after the Muslim killings, a convenient way of disarming the citizenry?

anonymous said...

Referendum now. All this is happening without a referendum whereby NZers can choose and approve this change to an ethno state and Luxon refuses to have this legal process. Why ? Why does the PM refuse this step and why are the people not insisting that this must happen?

anonymous said...

PS Scrutinizing Luxon's behaviour, it seems quite possible that he really wishes to lose the 2016 election so that the He Puapua process can accelerate under a Left government - which would be the main and certain result of such a victory. Luxon fully supports HP so this way, he could stay in Parliament for another term (while looking for a bigger job overseas ) and posture as the Opposition leader( an easy but ineffectual role) while watching ( and secretly supporting) a Left coalition guiding NZ towards full tribal rule at full speed.

Anonymous said...

The more I read about the evolution of the Third Reich, the more I see NZ following the same path.
The control of the media was central to the Nazi propaganda, exactly the same here and now in NZ.
I keep asking non Maori NZers about He Puapua, and they look blankly at me and have no idea about it.
Next question is about the PIJF - same reaction.
Luxon is still paying the media for another year to stab him in the back, and the 83% of NZers who are not Maori .
Could he be more arrogant ??

Unless Luxon does something, he will be held responsible for the death of NZ as a democracy.

anonymous said...

PPS Another hypothesis re. Luxon's Labour-lite behaviour: the joint Nat/Labour plan may be a bloodless coup to avoid full-blown civil war. So, those ( all types) who grasp the future picture are leaving now and the remaining (often apathetic and ill informed) NZers will carefully avoid conflict anyway.

glan011 said...

indeed..... planned waaaay ahead by the Kindness Fairy

Anonymous said...

The existence of He Puapua and the journalism fund: In my circles almost no one has heard of either.
Except ex-media (especially Stuff) staff I know who fully support (part) Maori final say and governance.
For others it is never mentioned in anything they read. You can refer them to online material that is factual and non _emotive but they look at you like : Oh...online disinfo...you must be a conspiracy theorist.
It is extraordinary how well the totally onside MSM have played this. Few look at or read other sources as they are seen as extreme and conspiracy and of course ''racist''.

anonymous said...

But also - how slowly National ( holding this portfolio for the Coalition) has addressed the correction of the media problem . This could, have been done very fast. The same for other National -held portfolios - MACA, Waitangi Tribunal TOW references in legislation etc . What is Luxon's game -as he clearly one?

Anonymous said...

I don't agree fully with CXH but he's not too far off the mark imo.

anonymous said...

No surprise - everything dovetails as per the master plan . People who believe the msm are the products of a dumbed-down and pro- Maori ED system - their attitude is a logical outcome of this indoctrination.

anonymous said...

But the goal is not 2 nations - the goal is tribal rule with ultimate power over all other ethnicities ( not just the British descendants). The 83 % still has to provide the tax.]